May 01, 2025
Donald Trump said Wednesday that Prime Minister Mark Carney is headed to Washington, DC, within a week for a personal meeting, but there is reason to think that neither country is ready to get down to serious trade negotiations.
The White House wants to deal with Asian countries before it gets around to USMCA, the trade agreement governing trade with Canada and Mexico.
“It makes sense to separate out Canada and Mexico from the rest because they are going to want to redo the USMCA,” a source close to the White House told Politico. “They’re going to have separate tariffs that focus specifically on Mexico and Canada, and they’re going to take some actions to squeeze them a little bit.”
A delay might also suit Carney. A former central banker, Carney became prime minister in March but almost immediately went to the polls to get a democratic mandate. Canadian politics has been thoroughly disrupted since Trump started issuing tariff threats before his inauguration in January. Carney could benefit from a period of calm in which he can consult with other politicians, business, and labor to figure out the best strategy to take to USMCA renegotiations and try to soothe the anger in the oil-rich Prairies, where voters were hoping for a Conservative government.
Ultimately, Trump’s willingness to engage in trade negotiations may be driven by broader economic concerns, and he may be motivated to make some deals if it helps turn the economy around. Official numbers released Wednesday show the economy shrank in the first quarter, likely as a result of Trump’s tariffs.
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