On China, Ian says Beijing is unlikely to suddenly shift into third gear, saying it prefers “no regret, low risk, long-term moves” rather than risky hard-power plays even as the US stretches itself thin across multiple conflicts. “The US-China relationship in the near term is actually quite stable,” he says.
On Cuba, Ian says the Trump administration may have more leverage than Obama did by combining economic pressure with the prospect of future opening. As Ian puts it, the “Cuban government knows that they can’t last that way for years.” His view: Havana could be pushed toward a deal in the coming months, though any progress may be overshadowed by the far bigger geopolitical fallout from the war in Iran.
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