Iran conflict spirals, with no end in sight

The supreme leader is dead, the conflict is spreading, and US President Donald Trump still isn’t clear on who he wants to run Iran. With the fighting spreading to multiple fronts and Iran seeking a new leader, here’s what else you need to know about the conflict right now.

First and foremost, the Islamic Republic confirmed on Sunday that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead. Strikes on Saturday, believed to be from Israel, destroyed his compound. A three-person council will run the 90-million-strong country until a successor is named. Trump told ABC News on Sunday that the attack took out the leading contenders to replace Khamenei.

“The frontrunner right now is probably Alireza Arafi, who sits on the leadership council that fills the gap left by Khamenei’s departure,” said Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew. “He’s a hardliner like Khamenei,” so the regime is seeking continuity. Reports today, Brew added, suggest the process to pick Khamenei’s successor is being accelerated.

Meanwhile, the bombing has continued, with the US and Israel hitting some 2,000 targets on Sunday – including Iran’s ballistic missile program – and Tehran retaliating. The strikes are starting to take a toll: more than 550 Iranians and four American service members have been killed, while an Iranian strike on the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh left nine dead. A trio of US planes was also accidentally shot down over Kuwait in a “friendly fire incident” – there were no casualties. Trump, who faces some pressure from the isolationist wing of his base, acknowledged there could be more US casualties.

The conflict has spread to new fronts. The Lebanese militia Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, launched rockets at Israel overnight. The Israelis fired back, hitting sites just south of the Lebanese capital of Beirut in a bid to target Hezbollah leaders – Lebanese media reported that these strikes killed 31, though the numbers don’t differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel has issued warnings about further strikes, while its defense minister said that a Lebanese invasion was now possible. Israel had reportedly told Lebanese leaders last week that it would hit its northern neighbor hard if Hezbollah got involved in any conflict with Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran isn’t confining itself to hitting Israel and US bases in the region in its retaliatory strikes. Twenty-one drones hit civilian targets in the United Arab Emirates over the weekend, per the UAE’s defense ministry, undercutting the country’s image as a safe haven for Middle East travel as one Dubai hotel caught fire. Not a single Gulf state has been spared, and the conflict threatens to spill into an all-out regional war – just what the Gulf leaders wanted to avoid.

Trump remains unclear on Iran’s future. The US president told the New York Times on Sunday that the US military plans to continue its attacks for “four to five weeks,” if necessary. He was unclear, though, on his plan for future control of Iran. He alluded to a possible Venezuela-like outcome, in which the old regime remains in place, but with a new leader who is more willing to work with Washington. But he also said he hoped that Iran’s top military forces would simply hand their weapons over to the Iranian people, whom they shot and killed in huge numbers during mass protests earlier this year.

In a separate interview with The Atlantic on Sunday, Trump said he had agreed to talks with the Islamic Republic’s leadership. He didn’t give a timeline. He then told CNN on Monday to expect further strikes on Iran.

“We haven’t even started hitting them hard,” Trump said. “The big one is coming soon.”