Is Trump the biggest global risk?

In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer calls the United States under President Trump the dominant driver of global political risk, but argues that the world is increasingly pushing back.

He says that a more unilateral and transactional US foreign policy, combined with efforts to reduce institutional checks, has driven outsized global uncertainty over the past year and a half.

Ian points to escalating tariffs and the US-China standoff as an early example, noting Washington “effectively putting a boycott on the Chinese” before pulling back after economic and political pressure.

He also highlights Iran, where escalation and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz forced the US to “back down,” underscoring limits to American coercive power.

While Ian expects continued disruption from the United States, he says growing domestic and international constraints will make it harder for Trump to fundamentally reshape the global system.