Philippines impeachment trial deepens a dynasty war

Assassination plots. International arrest warrants. Political dynasties battling for power. What might sound like a storyline from a Netflix political drama has instead become reality in Philippine politics over the past two years. The spectacle reached a new stage this week with the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte getting underway, and it could have significant implications for the country's future and its relations with the US and China.

On May 11, the Philippine House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to impeach Duterte, sending to the Senate a case that accused her of misusing public funds, accumulating unexplained wealth, and threatening the lives of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and other senior officials. Now the Senate must decide whether to remove one of the country’s most popular politicians from office. A conviction requires 16 votes in the 24-member chamber and would likely bar Duterte from running for president in 2028, when she remains a frontrunner. Duterte has already been impeached once before a year ago, but was spared by a Supreme Court ruling blocking the Senate vote. This time, her fate is uncertain.

A tale of two dynasties. The Marcos and Duterte families have dominated Philippine politics for decades. Ferdinand Marcos Sr. ruled for over two decades until he was ousted in the 1986 People Power Revolution after years of martial law, repression, and corruption allegations. The family later rebuilt its influence, culminating in the 2022 election of his son, “Bongbong.”

The Duterte dynasty rose from Davao City, where Rodrigo Duterte, Sara’s father, built a tough-on-crime reputation as mayor before winning the presidency in 2016. His violent anti-drug campaign left thousands dead and is now the subject of an ICC investigation for which he was arrested in 2025. Despite this, the Duterte name remains popular, particularly in the south.

The two families united for the 2022 election, pairing Marcos Jr.’s northern base with Sara Duterte’s strong support in the south. Their “UniTeam” populist ticket won decisively, though the alliance was largely one of political convenience rather than ideological.

The cracks begin to show. The alliance quickly began to fray as Marcos Jr. began reversing many of Rodrigo Duterte’s pro-China foreign-policy priorities, adopting a tougher stance in the South China Sea while deepening security cooperation with Washington. For the Duterte camp, which had championed closer ties with China and greater distance from Washington, the shift was significant. The rift between the two camps gradually grew, but the rupture became personal in late 2024 when Sara Duterte publicly said that if she were killed, she had instructed someone to kill Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and then-House Speaker Martin Romualdez. Duterte later argued that the comments were conditional and taken out of context, but the administration treated them as a serious threat and opened an investigation.

The outcome is far from certain. While the House is broadly aligned with Marcos Jr., the Senate remains more divided. Duterte retains substantial support, and senators are acutely aware that the case is tied to the 2028 presidential race, which Marcos Jr. cannot run for due to the single six-year presidential term limit.

“Marcos’s allies will hope that the trial at least unearths and brings renewed attention to Duterte’s alleged misdemeanors,” Peter Mumford, Eurasia Group’s practice head for Southeast Asia, said. Yet “for now she remains the odds-on favorite to win the presidential election in 2028.”

The political arithmetic has become even more complicated in recent weeks. Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a close Duterte ally and former national police chief under her father, has gone into hiding to avoid a warrant for his arrest by the ICC linked to his role in Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war. Meanwhile, Duterte-aligned senators Jose “Jinggoy” Estrada and Rodante Marcoleta have faced separate legaltroubles over graft and plunder allegations, potentially limiting support for the vice president when the vote comes to a head, likely in a few months.

A conviction could energize Duterte’s supporters, particularly in Mindanao, while reinforcing claims that the legal system has been weaponized against her family. An acquittal, meanwhile, would leave the Marcos Jr. administration facing an emboldened vice president and a rival political machine that survived an attempt to remove it from power.

The international implications are also significant. The Philippines sits at the center of the strategic competition between the United States and China. As a US treaty ally located near both Taiwan and the South China Sea, it has become a crucial part of Washington’s effort to strengthen its position in the western Pacific.

Under Marcos Jr., Manila has moved closer to Washington with trade and defense deals. But if Duterte ultimately wins the presidency in 2028, the country could shift toward a more China-friendly foreign policy similar to that of her father’s.

That possibility is one reason Beijing is watching closely. “I think China wants to dramatically undermine the network of US defense allies and partners in the region…making it easier to invade Taiwan, and allowing China to push control farther and farther out into blue waters,” says Joshua Kurlantzick, Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Even an impeachment may not fully end the Duterte dynasty. If Sara Duterte is convicted and barred from office, another family member could emerge to carry its political banner. As Kurlantzick notes, one possibility is Sebastian Duterte, the mayor of Davao and Sara’s brother, who is decidedly pro-China.

The stakes of the trial extend far beyond the vice presidency. The Senate’s verdict will help determine not only the future of a political dynasty, but also the direction of one of Southeast Asia’s most strategically important countries.

On the trial's second day, Duterte paused to address reporters outside the Senate. “In this bloodbath and bludgeoning,” she declared, “I will be bloodied but unbowed.”