The headline calls proved strong. “G-zero wins” (a world without effective global leadership) played out largely as expected, driven above all by the United States under a second Trump administration.
The “Rule of Don,” which warned of a more centralized and politicized US executive branch, also tracked closely with reality. Where the report fell short was in second-order effects. A ceasefire in Ukraine never materialized. Iran weakened geopolitically but remained internally stable. And US–China relations broke down sharply but far more briefly than expected, as Trump ultimately backed off once Beijing hit back.
To see the entire 2025 Top Risks report from Eurasia Group, go here: https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2025
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