South Korean leader to learn his political fate on Friday

South Korea’s Constitutional Court will tie the legal bow on what has been a tumultuous period for the country as it rules Friday on whether to formally dismiss or reinstate impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol. A formal announcement is expected at 11 a.m. local time Friday (10 p.m. ET Thursday).

Controversy on the peninsula. The impeachment case revolves around whether Yoon unconstitutionally declared martial law on Dec. 3, a move that lasted all of six hours. The National Assembly, which is dominated by the center-left Democratic Party, impeached the center-right president 11 days after the incident on the grounds that he violated his constitutional duty (and did so with the support of a handful of lawmakers from Yoon’s own party). While many demonstrated against Yoon’s declaration of martial law, his conservative backers – a small but vocal minority – have taken to the streets in recent months to show their support for the president.

Don’t bet against Yoon’s removal from office. Six of the court’s eight justices need to vote for Yoon’s removal if he is to be removed from office, an outcome that Eurasia Group regional expert Jeremy Chan believes is more likely than not.

“Public support for Yoon’s removal remains high, and the legal merits of the case against Yoon are solid. Excusing his martial law declaration would also risk normalizing it for future leaders,” he said.

Should the court rule in Yoon’s favor, he would return to office immediately, but if the court rules against him, as expected, South Korea must hold presidential elections within 60 days. Regardless of the ruling, Yoon still faces criminal charges for alleged treason – the one charge for which a sitting president is not immune. While the legal system may stem the criminal proceedings if he retains his presidential immunity, it is far more likely to proceed if he is removed from office.

Schools will be closed Friday, and police will be out in force in anticipation of mass protests, which are likely no matter how the court rules, says Chan.

Sea change for Seoul? If Yoon’s impeachment is formalized, acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will remain at the helm until an election takes place this spring. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, of the center-left, is the firm favorite to win at the polls. With a more dovish foreign policy stance, South Korea under Lee would likely seek warmer ties with China and North Korea, says Chan.

“Lee is a progressive populist who has been skeptical of the pro-US and pro-Japan tilt that South Korea’s foreign policy took under Yoon,” he said.