March 13, 2026
What exactly is President Donald Trump trying to achieve in Iran, and how does it compare with past US interventions in the Middle East?
Before the Iraq War, Secretary of State Colin Powell warned President George W. Bush about what became known as the “Pottery Barn rule”:
“You are going to be the proud owner of 25 million people… You’ll own all their hopes, their aspirations, and problems. You’ll own it all…. The Pottery Barn rule, ‘You break it, you own it.’”
The idea was simple: if the US destroys a regime, it becomes responsible for what comes next. But Trump’s approach to Iran looks very different, raising a bigger question: if Washington breaks something this time, will it feel responsible for owning it?
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Smoke billows from southern Lebanon, following Israeli strikes, as seen from Nabatieh, Lebanon, June 4, 2026.
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Lebanon and Israel signed a ceasefire, but Hezbollah didn't, and that is a problem. With Netanyahu under pressure to escalate, Trump searching for a face-saving exit, and Iran unmoved by US muscle-flexing, the deadlock shows no signs of breaking.
US President Donald Trump listens to a question from a reporter prior to signing an executive order on AI next to Sriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and David Sacks, chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on December 11, 2025.
REUTERS/Al Drago
Artificial intelligence and Donald Trump's foreign policy are creating huge tail risks for markets.
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