When will Israel strike Iran, and will a hostage deal ever happen?

Members of the Iranian Army's land force are marching in a military parade to mark the anniversary of Iran's Army Day at an Army military base in Tehran, Iran, on April 17, 2024.
Members of the Iranian Army's land force are marching in a military parade to mark the anniversary of Iran's Army Day at an Army military base in Tehran, Iran, on April 17, 2024.
Morteza Nikoubazl/Reuters

The world is waiting to see how Israel retaliates against Tehran’s recent air attacks. But, according to new reports, nothing is likely until after Passover, a holiday celebrating the liberation of Israelites from Egypt thousands of years ago. Passover begins on Monday and ends on April 30.

The news comes as Israel continues to weigh the extent and timing of any response to Iran’s drone-and-missile salvo from last weekend, with the US urging restraint for fear of igniting a wider regional war. Iran says it will respond to any Israeli strikes, and on Thursday warned it could pursue nuclear weapons if any of its nuclear facilities are targeted — a prospect that Israel and its Western allies have worked against for years.

Meanwhile, talks on a cease-fire in Gaza – a surefire way to cool things down – are at an impasse, with Qatar, an indispensable interlocutor between Israel and Hamas, now saying it will reevaluate its role in the discussions following US criticism of its ties to the group. But would Qatar really walk away entirely? Doubtful – the tiny Gulf state views its mediator role as a key means of boosting its global clout.

“Qatar is frustrated by the criticisms emerging from some American politicians,” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group. And while “Doha may try to distance itself from the talks,” she says it “is unlikely to abandon its role.”

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On Tuesday, the US struck four boats off the Pacific coast of Central America, killing 14 people who the White House said were smuggling narcotics.

Israeli warplanes launched heavy airstrikes targeting an entire residential block near the Al-Sousi Mosque in Al-Shati refugee camp, west of Gaza City. The strikes destroyed a large number of homes, levelling some to the ground. Civil defense and ambulance teams rushed to the scene and are working to rescue victims and recover bodies from under the rubble amidst widespread destruction and significant difficulties in rescue operations due to the ongoing bombardment and a shortage of equipment.

Israeli strikes in Gaza killed 100 people last night, according to local officials, in the deadliest day since the signing of the ceasefire three weeks ago.