Despite European leaders declaring that they will lead a “coalition of the willing” to reach an end to the Ukraine war, the Trump administration seems focused on striking a deal with Russia – regardless of whether it actually ends the conflict, or whether the EU and Ukraine agree to it.
“From [Donald] Trump’s perspective, the more important deal is the Russia deal. I think the question is what role, if any, Ukraine peace is going to have in the US-Russia agreement,” says GZERO President Ian Bremmer.
Meanwhile, the US has announced that it’s pausing its cyber offensive efforts against Russia as the two countries rekindle their relationship. That directive came before Trump’s explosive Friday meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but it is a further signal of Trump’s proclivity for Putin and his weakening support for Ukraine.
The two countries also are reportedly discussing a deal for American investors to restore Nord Stream 2, the natural gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany, in exchange for a stake in the company. The pipeline was central to Europe’s energy reliance on Moscow before it was destroyed in 2022, and could be another sweetener to push Trump to make a Ukraine deal on Russia’s terms by enabling the US to profit from the flow of gas if Western sanctions are lifted. But Germany has not expressed interest in revitalizing the pipeline – or in giving Russia and the US more leverage over its energy supply. The conversation — like the initial Ukraine discussions between the US and Russia — again sidelines Europe as it tries to ramp up defense spending (its defense stocks surged on Monday) and signals its support for Ukraine.
The rub. Europe and Ukraine are being denied seats at the table because, when it comes to dealing with the transactional US president, they have less to offer Trump than Russia. “There are clearly some economic sweeteners at play here between the broader Putin and Trump circles,” Bremmer said. “The cash register’s open in this environment.”
In contrast, experts say Trump sees Ukraine as being out of cards and the EU as freeloaders, and he prefers negotiating bilaterally with Putin than trying to get a bunch of European allies to fall in line.
The next few months are critical: Trump seems set on making a deal with Russia – but he’s also said he’s not ready to abandon NATO altogether, reaffirming his commitment to Article 5 in talks with British PM Keir Starmer and to keeping US troops in Poland.
The question is whether his deal with Russia undermines European security. If Ukraine can revive its critical minerals offer and the Europeans can demonstrate meaningful leadership in defense spending and securing Ukraine, Trump could sign a more European-friendly deal and sell it as a victory to voters, claiming he succeeded in making Europe contribute its fair share where previous administrations have failed. If not, the EU could see a full US-Russia reconciliation that could leave them strategically adrift.
But Bremmer says Trump could make a deal that withdraws the US from the conflict without securing a cease-fire, which would leave the Europeans in the driver's seat when it comes to negotiating peace. Can Europe broker a cease-fire? Hear what Bremmer thinks in his latest Quick Take.