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Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny attends a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in July 2023.
Troubling accusations in Ukraine
Did Ukraine plunge Europe into the dark last year? That’s the charge from unnamed Ukrainian officials, who claim Col. Roman Chervinsky, of Ukraine’s special operations forces, coordinated a sabotage operation that caused three explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on Sept. 26, 2022. The pipelines run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, and Nord Stream 1 (Nord Stream 2 wasn't in use yet) provided about 35% of the gas European Union states imported from Russia prior to the war.
Through his lawyer, Chervinsky – who’s awaiting trial on charges of abuse of power related to a different matter – denied any role in the attack, calling it “Russian propaganda.” But he isn’t the focus of the Nord Stream accusations: Observers say they are really directed at Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, to whom Chervinsky’s bosses reported.
Zaluzhny was recently involved in a public spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over an interview and op-ed Zaluzhny gave to The Economist, where he described the state of the war as a “stalemate.”
Those remarks – amid fears they might prompt Western nations to push for a settlement between Moscow and Kyiv – earned a sharp rebuke from Zelensky. A few days later, Major Gen. Viktor Khorenko, head of special operations forces and one of Zaluzhny’s deputies, was dismissed in a surprise move.
Zaluzhny is a popular figure and is considered a potential political rival to Zelensky, even though he hasn’t shown an interest in politics. The leak of the Nord Stream story may be the latest sign of a growing rift between Zelensky and the military, as the conflict with Russia drags into its second year, the counteroffensive stalls, and next year’s planned elections loom.
Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines?
The controversial Nordstream pipeline that connects Russia to Germany made headlines last September when segments of it mysteriously exploded, deep under water.
Who was responsible?
"My guess is the Russians," says German diplomat Christoph Heusgen tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But proving that suspicion, Heusgen acknowledges, will be much harder to do. "Objectively, it's going to be very, very difficult to do this research. It's at 100 meter below the surface...It will be very difficult to find out."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity
- Europe’s Russian gas dilemma ›
- With electric bills soaring, should the EU cap natural gas prices? ›
- The Graphic Truth: Kicking the Russian gas habit ›
- Europe’s tough decisions: Russia, China, and EU unity ›
- What We’re Watching: China's problems, UAE vs Houthis, Nord Stream 2 split ›
- Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines? - GZERO Media ›
- Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines? - GZERO Media ›
US President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin
To Russia, with love: Why has diplomacy failed?
By all reasonable measures, there’s little love between Russia and the US this Valentine’s Day. The recent flurry of diplomacy between Russia and the West has been a failure with a series of recent high-profile meetings only leading to further stagnation and reports that Putin is moving closer towards military intervention.
Over the weekend: A call on Saturday between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin — the American leader warned of “severe costs” if Russia invades — appeared to fall flat. This followed Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s chat with UK Foreign Sec. Liz Truss, which he characterized as a conversation between “the mute with the deaf.” Meanwhile, France’s Emmanuel Macron, who has tried to position himself as Europe’s chief interlocutor, made little progress in a weekend call with the Kremlin, and an earlier meeting of the Normandy Four – Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France – failed to even agree on language for a joint statement.
So, why is diplomacy floundering?
Russia and the West don’t speak the same love language.
As Russia has bolstered its military capabilities across Eastern Europe in recent weeks, American and European leaders have drawn on Western values to try and change the Kremlin’s behavior.
Biden says an invasion will make Moscow an international pariah, and Truss recently said London had “made clear that Russia needed to live up to the international commitments it had entered into.” But such rhetoric about the rules-based international order is no way to woo Russia: Putin — whose politics are centered on restoring control over Central and Eastern Europe — does not care much for the US-led international order, and he’s unlikely to be swayed by bleeding-heart appeals to post-World War II norms and values.
Some believe the Kremlin is ready to go head to head with the West. “Putin has been preparing the country, including the economy, for some sort of long-term standoff with the West,” says Joshua Yaffa, a Moscow-based correspondent for the New Yorker. He points to the accumulation of the $630 billion reserve fund, “which could be used to cushion the ruble from exchange rate shocks” if Washington sanctions Russian financial institutions.
Is the West all bark and no bite?
Biden has repeatedly said he will not send US troops to defend Ukraine. For months, the White House has been sounding the alarm on the urgency of the Russian threat, while at the same time highlighting the limits of what it’s willing to do about it. This dynamic — not unlike a jilted lover whining about betrayal but never heading for the door — has emboldened Putin to increase military deployments around Ukraine rather than pull back.
To be sure, Biden has threatened Russia with new economic sanctions if Moscow ups the ante in Ukraine. But discord between the US and its European partners over how to respond to Russian aggression has only reinforced Putin’s view of Western weakness. The Kremlin knows that competing interests — including some European states’ heavy reliance on Russian commodities — is making it very difficult for the West to coordinate a united response.
Considering the apparent reluctance from some Western allies to further confront Russia, can the US go it alone? Given Washington's dominance over the international financial system, Yaffa believes the Biden administration has access to some “nuclear options” that could inflict serious harm on the Russian economy. But “to the extent that the Western response is credible and durable over the long term,” he adds, “[Washington] does need to be united” with other European capitals.
Enter Olaf. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Ukraine and Russia on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Given what’s at stake in German-Russia relations — particularly the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — Putin may be inclined to try and find some common ground with the German leader. Can the two find some love for Russia and the West? Whatever happens, Scholz’s shot at diplomacy will shine a light on the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough — or breakup — in the days ahead.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to the USA for his inaugural visit.
Will the real Olaf please stand up?
On Monday, President Joe Biden will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House. While Angela Merkel’s successor has only been at the helm since December, the meeting still seems long overdue.
In just two months, Scholz’s wavering stance on the Russia-Ukraine crisis has raised questions about Germany’s commitment to international security and its transatlantic partners. The chancellor will try to repair the damage.
To be fair, he wasn’t elected on a robust foreign policy platform. Scholz campaigned on promises to boost economic growth after years of stagnation under Merkel. German foreign policy, meanwhile, was meant to remain as it was with his predecessor: focused mainly on European integration and bolstering alliances.
Yet, in the face of Russia’s massive military buildup along the Ukrainian border, Scholz is being forced to come up with a clear position on European security, on sanctioning Moscow, and on German energy. He’s in a tricky spot with his fragile “traffic light” coalition, as both the leftist Greens and the centrist FDP party are skeptical of Russia. Scholz's own Social Democratic Party is split between Russia doves and hawks.
Meanwhile, critics wonder where the “invisible man” of Berlin has been, questioning whether Scholz has what it takes to navigate the first international security crisis of the post-Merkel era. They might have a point.
When Germany offered to send helmets instead of weapons to Ukraine last month, Kyiv’s mayor taunted Berlin about whether pillows would follow. Last week, a memo from the German ambassador to Washington started with “Germany, we have a problem” and warned that many US Republicans think Scholz is “in bed with Putin.”
Berlin has been unclear on Nord Stream 2. For Merkel, the $11 billion Russian natural gas pipeline was a commercial project to heat millions of German homes and power Germany’s influential industrial giants, but critics say it’ll only increase Berlin's dependence on Russian gas. Scholz has since clarified that Nord Stream 2 would be suspended as part of Western sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine, but influential German voices want to see the pipeline open. What’s more, how Germany would react to something short of a full invasion remains unclear.
Scholz is going to Washington to rebuild trust. But Biden needs to know how much he can count on Germany’s friendship — whatever Putin’s path. A week later, the German chancellor’s diplomatic dance will continue … at the Kremlin.What We’re Watching: West dents Russian gas leverage, Honduran president sworn in, Portuguese vote
Nord Stream 2 used as a bargaining chip with Russia. The US now says that if Russia invades Ukraine, it’ll block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is set to transfer even more natural gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. This is a big deal, considering that Germany – thirsty for more Russian gas – has long been pushing for the pipeline to start operating despite ongoing objections from Washington. The $11 billion energy project, which would double Russian gas exports to Germany, is seen as (a big) part of the reason why Berlin is reluctant to push back hard against the Kremlin over its troop buildup at the Ukrainian border. Still, German officials admit Nord Stream 2 could face sanctions if the Russians invade, suggesting that the Americans’ threat was likely coordinated with Berlin in advance. This comes amid ongoing diplomatic attempts to de-escalate the Ukraine crisis, with US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set to meet at the White House on February 7.
Castro’s challenges in Honduras. Honduras on Thursday inaugurated its first female president. Xiomaro Castro is a 62-year-old democratic socialist and wife of former president José Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted in a military coup in 2009. But she assumes office in the middle of a dispute within her own party over congressional roles that could make it hard for her to pass legislation. Several international heavyweights flew in for the ceremony in one of Central America’s poorest countries. US Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s been charged with the very daunting task of addressing the root causes of migration to the US from the Northern Triangle, attended as a sign of solidarity. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai also flew into Tegucigalpa to shore up Taiwanese support for Honduras as it tries to challenge Beijing’s expanding influence across Latin America. (Castro previously said that she might cut off ties with Taipei to bolster economic cooperation with Beijing.)
Portuguese vote. Portugal goes to the polls on Sunday, more than three months after the president was forced to call a snap election over failure to pass the 2022 budget. The ruling center-left Socialist Party of PM António Costa is now slightly ahead in the polls of the Social Democrats, the main opposition center-right party. Meanwhile, the far-right Chega party could become the third-largest parliamentary force after benefiting from some Portuguese blaming leftist parties for forcing an election amid the pandemic. Costa has made it easy for Portuguese to vote early to avoid crowds amid the omicron wave, but turnout is still expected to be low. Whatever the outcome, it's unlikely either of the two main parties will win a majority of seats. This means one of them will need to abstain for the other to take power, or call a second election. That would be very bad news for Portugal, which has so far been one of the EU's most politically stable countries and one of the bloc's economic success stories since the euro and sovereign debt crisis almost a decade ago.
What We’re Watching: China's problems, UAE vs Houthis, Nord Stream 2 split
China's mounting problems. Xi Jinping is not off to a good start in 2022. First, Chinese economic growth slowed down to 4 percent in the last quarter of 2021, almost a percentage point less than the previous period. While annual GDP was up 8.1 percent year-on-year, beating government expectations, the trend is worrying for the world’s second-largest economy. Second, annual population growth fell in 2021 to its lowest rate since 1949, when the ruling Communist Party took over. Although Xi probably saw this one coming, he's running out of ideas to encourage Chinese families to have more children — which the government needs in order to sustain growth and support the elderly over the long term. Third, and most immediate: the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics canceled ticket sales for domestic spectators — foreigners were not invited — as the more transmissible omicron variant has driven up COVID infections in China to the highest level since March 2020. It's only the latest sign that Xi's controversial zero-COVID policy is setting itself up for failure against omicron without mRNA vaccines. What'll it take for China to reverse course?
Drones, deserts, and demands. Although it has long been interfering in Yemen’s civil war, the United Arab Emirates has been avoiding direct conflict with the Houthis for years. Not anymore. A drone attack at the Abu Dhabi port targeting oil tankers has killed at least three people, and been claimed by Yemen’s Iran-backed rebels. The Emiratis don’t share a border with Yemen, from where the Houthis have targeted neighboring Saudi Arabia for its backing of government forces in Yemen’s eight-year civil war. That, along with an unannounced ceasefire between the Emiratis and Houthis, has led to zero attacks against the UAE since 2018. But as recent operations by UAE-backed groups have started targeting Houthi forces, Abu Dhabi now finds itself ensnared in an intensifying confrontation with the rebels. Thus, it has demanded that the US re-designate the Houthis as a terrorist group, as the Trump administration did in 2020 and Joe Biden reversed when he took over.
German government split on Nord Stream 2. Just weeks after taking power, two members of Germany's new three-party coalition government disagree on what to do about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which carries (more) Russian natural gas to Europe under the Baltic Sea. The leftist Greens, led by Foreign Minister Analena Baerbock, want to hold off on Germany certifying the pipeline until Russia backs down on its thinly-veiled threats to invade Ukraine. But senior members of the center-left SPD, the majority partner in the coalition, would rather leave Nord Stream 2 out of the ongoing talks between the US, NATO, and Russia to avert war because Germany needs a steady supply of Russian gas. Chancellor and SPD leader Olaf Scholz, for his part, is walking a tightrope between not undercutting Baerbock and keeping the Russian gas flowing. Vladimir Putin obviously wants Nord Stream 2 to be certified ASAP to gain leverage with Ukraine — now a transit country for Europe-bound overland Russian gas — without hurting Moscow's European customers, while the Biden administration would like Germany to keep the ace up their sleeve as long Putin keeps bullying Ukraine.Biden and Merkel: Good vibes, big disagreements
When it comes to the US, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has seen a lot over the past 16 years. She's weathered the hubris of the George W. Bush presidency, worked closely with the Obama administration to manage a slate of global catastrophes (Great Recession, Ebola outbreak) and navigated the chilling of US-German relations under Donald Trump. This Thursday, she will meet with President Joe Biden at the White House.
Both Biden and Merkel have been around the block — many times — and it's clear that they enjoy a close working relationship and mutual respect for one another. But mending the bilateral relationship in the post-Trump era is not as simple as many hoped. Disagreements on a host of thorny issues persist, and they will be front and center when Biden and Merkel awkwardly elbow-bump this week.
Russia and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. For all of their apparent comity, Biden and Merkel have been at loggerheads over the construction of this pipeline, which, if completed, would massively increase the shipment of natural gas directly from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. Germany says the project is crucial to offset dwindling gas production in Europe, as well as to help it meet its goal of phasing out coal-powered plants by 2038.
But Washington says that the project would allow an already-brazen Kremlin to weaponize gas exports in order to harm US ally Ukraine. Until now, that country has been a major transit country for Europe-bound Russian gas exports. But if Nord Stream 2 enables the Kremlin to cut gas to Kyiv without harming its major EU consumers, Moscow will surely be emboldened to do just that. Merkel said this week that Germany will safeguard Ukrainian interests, but Kyiv doesn't seem to be buying it.
As part of a bid to patch things up with Germany, Biden recently waived sanctions (imposed by the Trump administration) on the company behind Nord Stream 2. But the move earned him much condemnation at home, with both Republicans and Democrats saying the decision was a boon for Russia.
Afghanistan and NATO shenanigans. If Washington is peeved over Germany's unilateral action with Nord Stream 2, well, Berlin is equally riled up about the US' withdrawal plan in Afghanistan, which was given the go ahead without any consultation with the Germans. Germany has had the second biggest military presence in Afghanistan, sending 150,000 troops over the past two decades. Moreover, the Germans are still wary after Trump announced last year that the US would pull 12,000 troops stationed in Germany, offering no strategic rationale for the move. Although Biden walked that back, the US going at it alone in Afghanistan has only reinforced Germans' misgivings.
What to do about China. Countering China's rising global influence and domestic repression is a Biden administration priority, and the only thing that seems to unify Congressional Democrats and Republicans. The US president has said that cooperation from European and Asia-Pacific allies is key to containing China.
But Merkel, on the other hand, has tried to boost EU ties with Beijing, and has long backed a now-stalled EU-China investment deal, even over US objections. The disagreement also extends to Chinese telecommunications: while Washington has long waged a campaign against Chinese tech titan Huawei, citing cybersecurity concerns, Berlin announced in February that it will not ban Huawei-made equipment from its 5G networks. Merkel said at the time that while the US and Europe should develop a "joint agenda on China," this does not necessarily "mean that our interests will always converge."
Complicating matters further is the fact that this meet-and-greet comes just 10 weeks before German elections that will mark the end of Merkel's 16 years in power. Merkel will be looking to cement her domestic political legacy, and is well placed to do so, given that her CDU/CSU coalition is currently leading in the polls after a rocky few months. But acquiescing to the Americans on Nord Stream 2 and China are not popular plays with German voters. Interestingly, 53 percent of German respondents told the European Council on Foreign Relations that Americans cannot be trusted in the post-Trump era.
No looking back. In the lead-up to US elections last year, Heiko Maas, Germany's foreign minister, said: "Everyone who thinks everything in the trans-Atlantic partnership will be as it once was with a Democratic president underestimates the structural changes." This will be on full display as Merkel meets with her last US president.
Biden and G7 take on China
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody happy Monday. Ian Bremmer here. I've got a Quick Take for you. Thought we would talk a little bit about President Biden's first trip outside the United States as president and the G7, which frankly went better than expected. I'm the guy that talks about the GZERO world and the absence of global leadership. But the desire of a lot of American allies to have a more regularized relationship with the United States that feels like a partnership and alliance is pretty high. And President Biden's willingness to play that role, irrespective of the constraints and divisions that he has back at home, it's also pretty high. And those two things aligned.
The timing also was fantastic, because the United States is now looking in the rear view mirror at coronavirus, largely. And that's almost true for the Europeans, the Brits, the Canadians, even the Japanese are getting better. So if there was ever a time to not play domestic politics for the G7 and instead, actually look ahead at what can be done on the global stage, this was it. And as a consequence, there was more progress than you would normally expect. First of all, one billion vaccines being provided, repurposed to lower and medium income countries, plus some financing. The United States providing half of that, 500 million vaccines from the United States being donated to poor countries. And I did not hear a single Senator or member of the House of Representatives, Democrat or Republican, in any way complain about the US doing that.
That's the first piece of meaningful US leadership on the global stage that I have seen that hasn't been politicized in the US in years. And that's a good piece of news because we desperately need to do more. And until everyone's vaccinated, the global economy is slow and people will continue to get sick and die, and we're not out of the woods. So that's a positive thing. The allies were happy to support it and to be seen as playing along with American leadership, I think. I would have liked to have seen more. I would have liked to have been earlier, but it's still by far the biggest announcement that's been made since coronavirus has hit. And it happened under American leadership with the G7, so that's good context.
Secondly, you got some coordination on tax policy. We knew that was coming. It'll take years to actually get ratified in the US Congress and in European individual parliaments, but it still is alignment, it's steering the ship. There was pretty strong coordination on Russia. Not that they necessarily know what to do, but that they're all mutually angry about the cyberattacks that are going on. And Biden wants to coordinate policy with the Europeans, which is why you saw the pullback on the pipeline Nord Stream 2, sanctions that the US was putting on. The view was, "Look, the pipeline is getting built anyway. With tougher sanctions under the Trump administration, and they were tougher, the pipeline was still getting built. It was probably going to be made operational." The only question is after Merkel, do the Greens take the chancellorship? Probably not. And so as a consequence, Biden's like, "Why am I doing this? Let's coordinate with the Europeans and our allies on Russia." That worked pretty well.
The big question and the most interesting piece was China. And this announcement with no details around it, given in the communique of the B3W, Build Back Better World. That is a horrible acronym. I hope they change the name. But the idea was to come up with something that could offer an alternative to China's Belt and Road. It sounds like it just came out of thin air, that's not the case at all. It's actually been discussed for over a year now. Initially it was Australia, Japan, and the United States under the Trump administration, looking for something to do that would support investment and financing of big projects in infrastructure for lower income countries around the world, where right now it's all China, all Belt and Road all the time. There's no alternative.
And you could have done it with the quad, but the Australians are in a trade war with China right now. They wanted some air cover. They certainly wanted a broader group. And the Americans and the Japanese were both happy to move in that direction. So they moved it to the G7. And the Australians, the South Koreans and the Indians, none of them members of the G7, were all invited as special guests. The only other special guests was South Africa, part of the British Commonwealth, the Brits were hosting it. So really an effort to bring the Asian allies in, bring India, a member of the quad in, and be able to get stronger consolidation in policies toward China.
Now, suddenly when the China conversation happened on Saturday, the Europeans, the French, the Germans, and the Italians, felt blindsided because they hadn't heard about what all of this meant. And the fact that a project was ready to go, a multibillion dollar telecom project in Southeast Asia, that is, I'm told, going to be announced in the next few weeks. So they pushed back and that was on Saturday. They even shut down the internet for the summit, because nobody wanted all of this dissent to get out and discussed with the staffers of the G7 that could have scuttled anything they agreed on. They figured, "Let's wait until we all know how we want to frame this in the communique, and then we can turn the internet back on." That's what actually happened. And you ended up getting largely what the Biden administration wanted, which was a lot of talk about China in the communique, a lot of things the G7 agreed they were angry about, whether its Uighurs or South China Sea, or intellectual property theft. And a willingness to set up this B3W a committee that will organize towards putting it in place.
Does it feel like we're heading more towards confrontation with China? Yes. Are the Europeans happy about that? Not particularly. But US leadership on the issue, which is significant. It's not going to be a competitor to Belt and Road, but it is looking like an alternative to digital Belt and Road, more strategic for the Americans and more aligned for a lot of the American allies.
So interesting, significant, worth talking about. More important on balance than the upcoming summit in a couple of days with Russia and Putin. I'm sure I'll talk about that too, but that's for another day. That is your Quick Take. I'll talk to everybody real soon.