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Hard Numbers: Russia reportedly indoctrinating kidnapped Ukrainian children, Fed to discuss rate cuts amid political firestorm, Argentina’s Milei presents budget, & More
Protesters led by children march in London, United Kingdom, on June 1, 2025, demanding the release of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia and an end to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
210: The Kremlin is holding Ukrainian children at 210 different sites across Russia, according to a Yale University report, and forcing them to have re-education sessions and military training. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has regularly cited the abductions as evidence that Moscow is committing genocide in Ukraine. Kyiv estimates that 20,000 children have been taken since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
€1 billion: Poland increased its cybersecurity budget from €600 million ($708m) to €1 billion ($1.18b) after Russian hackers targeted its hospitals and Warsaw’s water supply. The Polish foreign minister said the country faces 20-50 cyber threats to critical infrastructure each day, most of which it thwarts.
3: The US military hit a Venezuela drug boat on Monday, killing three people. The attack marks the second time this month that the US has hit a boat suspected of drug smuggling off the coast of Venezuela.
7: A political storm is clouding the US Federal Reserve as its seven governors meet over the next couple of days to decide whether to cut interest rates – the target range is currently 4.25%-4.5%. Among the seven decision-makers are Lisa Cook, whom President Donald Trump has tried to fire but remains in situ after a court win yesterday, and Stephen Miran, a Trump ally whom the Senate confirmed only yesterday.
1.5%: Argentine President Javier Milei presented his 2026 budget proposal Tuesday to the National Congress, with the aim of having a fiscal surplus of 1.5% next year. The budgets for each of the last two years have been rejected, so the government has instead extended and continued to use the one implemented in 2023. With the midterm election only six weeks away, the budget could have political ramifications for Milei.
What We’re Watching: Israel commences Gaza City ground invasion, Election day in Malawi, India-US seek to mend trade ties
Palestinians, displaced by the Israeli military offensive, take shelter in a tent camp, amid an Israeli operation, in Gaza City, September 16, 2025.
Israel commences Gaza City ground invasion amid UN genocide report
The war in Gaza is intensifying further, as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) commenced a long-planned ground operation in the enclave’s largest city on Tuesday. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are still sheltering in the area, which faced an aerial bombardment in recent days. Israel argues that the ground invasion is the best way to free the remaining 48 hostages held by Hamas, 20 of whom are believed to be alive, and prevent the militant group from reorganizing. The escalation comes as a United Nations inquiry concluded Tuesday that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu incited this act. Israel called the report “fake.”
Economic gloom hovers over Malawi election
Malawians voted Tuesday in a tight presidential race between incumbent Lazarus Chakwera and former leader Peter Mutharika amid soaring inflation, food shortages, and deep poverty. Fifteen other candidates, including ex-President Joyce Banda, are also running. Economic stagnation, corruption allegations, and climate-linked disasters have fueled public frustration in the southeast African country of 22 million, where most people live on less than $3 a day. Both major contenders face graft accusations, and analysts expect a likely run-off if no candidate surpasses 50% of the vote. Parliamentary and local elections are also underway, with results expected within a week.
Are India-US trade tensions set to dissipate?
US officials are in Delhi today to discuss whether these two major geopolitical powers can reach a trade deal. Tensions have been simmering in recent months after US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian imports, purportedly over their purchases of Russian oil – some experts believe Trump’s gambit was really about bargaining position. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who once had a close relationship with Trump, rebuffed the US leader’s call to stop. However, there is growing optimism that the two sides can work out a deal – Trump and Modi even exchanged hopeful messages on social medialast week.
Supporters of main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and main rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, a day after the removal of the CHP's Istanbul provincial head Ozgur Celik by a court over alleged irregularities in a 2023 CHP provincial congress, in Istanbul, Turkey, September 3, 2025.
After a weekend of mass protests in Turkey, a court in Ankara has postponed its decision in a highly charged case that could oust Turkey’s main opposition leader – and boost the fortunes of long-time President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The case comes amid a crackdown against Erdoğan’s political opponents, hundreds of whom have been jailed on accusations of corruption and terrorism, including Erdoğan’s main rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Ahead of elections that must be held by 2028, Erdoğan stands accused of attempting to extend his 22-year hold on power by any means necessary, and at the cost of democracy itself.
What’s the case about?
The case alleges vote-buying and procedural irregularities at the 2023 congress of Turkey's principal opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which removed former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and elected current chairman Ozgur Özel. The court was supposed to rule on September 15, but has now postponed the decision until October 24.
The CHP rejects the corruption claims, with Özel accusing Erdoğan of launching a “judicial coup” in response to his party’s electoral victories in 2024, and rising public support. Erdoğan denies this, but in May he commissioned a redraft of the country’s constitution, raising fears that he intends to manipulate the law to allow him to run for a fourth term.
What could happen if Kılıçdaroğlu is reinstated?
The former leader’s reinstatement could sow conflict inside the party between old guard and new, thereby demoralizing some of its base. On the other hand, such a decision could also backfire and galvanize the opposition, like several of Erdoğan’s other recent moves. İmamoğlu’s arrest provoked the largest protests in Turkey in over a decade, while the spate of opposition arrests and court battles has turned Özel into a popular protest figure as well.
What’s at stake for Turkey?
Electoral freedom. “This is a serious moment that signals a regime change in Turkey from a competitive authoritarianism, in which opposition parties could still win elections, to a kind of hegemonic authoritarianism, in which they are more symbolic and unable to win,” said Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of IstanPol Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank.
The West – and the rest – are watching
If Turkey slides towards authoritarianism, it couldn’t come at a worse time for the West. Erdoğan has long attempted to strike a balance between the country’s NATO partners and Russia, notably on the war in Ukraine. But some of his foreign policy positions, including on Israel’s war with Hamas, have distanced Ankara from Western allies. Add to that US President Donald Trump’s recent ultimatum to NATO countries to stop buying Russian oil – which Turkey does – and Greece’s objections this week to Turkey joining the Security Action For Europe, and it’s not hard to see how Erdoğan might find more kinship with Moscow than with Europe or Washington.
The big picture
The court’s decision on October 24 will be part of a larger test for Turkey: can democratic institutions, including courts, elections, and civil rights, survive Erdoğan’s crackdown? Or will they be hollowed from the inside, leaving opposition parties in name only, and Turkish citizens no other option than to take to the streets? More unrest could cause Erdoğan to further curb civil liberties, leading Turkey further down the path of authoritarianism – and away from democratic alliances.
HARD NUMBERS: Adolescence cleans up at Emmys, Canada unveils new housing agency, India-Pakistan rice wars paralyze the EU, sea levels put coastal Ozzies at risk
Stephen Graham, winner of Best Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie and Best Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, Owen Cooper, Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, and Erin Doherty, Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, for "Adolescence", Best Limited or Anthology Series pose with their awards at the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards in Los Angeles, California, U.S., September 14, 2025.
8: Netflix teen murder series "Adolescence" won eight Emmys including for best limited series. Supporting actor Owen Cooper,15, became the youngest male actor to win an Emmy. The series centers on a schoolboy accused of killing a female classmate. It has provoked a global conversation about toxic masculinity and social media use by young boys.
9 billion: Canadian PM Mark Carney announced the creation of a new federal agency tasked with building affordable housing for low-income Canadians. The Build Canada Homes agency will receive an initial capitalization of more than $9 billion. Housing shortages, and broader cost of living pressures, have become a major national issue in Canada in recent years.
7: India has waited seven years for the EU to rule whether “Basmati” rice is a trademarked Indian product. But India’s rival Pakistan also produces basmati and wants that protection itself. The issue has paralyzed a new EU-India trade deal, because basmati is produced in Kashmir, a region contested by India and Pakistan. Granting the trademark to one side or the other would imply recognition of Kashmir claims. So far, Brussels is doing what it does as well as anyone: punting on the issue pending further review…
1.5 million: Australia’s first National Risk Assessment warns that rising sea levels will put at risk the homes of 1.5 million Australians by 2050. The report also predicts worsening floods, cyclones, heatwaves, droughts and bushfires, as well as more heat-related deaths, reduced water quality, and lower property values.What we’re watching: Trump reaches TikTok deal, Far-right surges in German state election, Africa to team up on critical minerals
Senior U.S. and Chinese led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang meet to discuss trade and economic issues and TikTok, in Madrid, Spain, September 14, 2025.
TikTok deal emerges ahead of possible Trump-Xi phonecall
In an announcement teeming with viral potential, the White House said the US and China have outlined a deal for TikTok to continue operating in the US. The China-controlled social media giant faced a September 17 deadline to accept US ownership or be banned over national security concerns. So far so good, but the news comes as both sides are jockeying very strongly for position in trade talks this week: Beijing has accused US chip giant Nvidia of violating Chinese antitrust laws, just days after Washington blacklisted 23 Chinese tech companies. Donald Trump says he and President Xi Jinping will speak directly on Friday.
Germany’s AfD triples vote in state election
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 14.5% of the vote in Sunday’s local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state and home to a quarter of its population. Centrist parties received the most votes, with the CDU at 33.3%, and the SPD at 22.1%, but the AfD surpassed the Greens at 13.5%, as they had done in February’s federal elections. This time, twenty thousand parliamentary seats in 400 towns and municipalities were up for grabs, and while the election does not directly impact the national government, it confirms the AfD’s growing popularity outside its traditional eastern base, chiefly due to concerns about housing and migration.
African Union to form critical minerals coalition
Africa holds 30% of the world’s reserves of critical minerals – an essential component of advanced and green technologies. But producers there exert little control over the global market for these resources, and the wealth they generate. To change that, the 54-nation African Union has announced a coalition of producers to coordinate strategies for production and investment. China currently dominates the industry on the continent, but the US is muscling in too. This new coalition hopes to balance this great power scramble, and profit from it.
U.S. President Donald Trump holds a letter from Britain's King Charles as he meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
As US President Donald Trump travels to the United Kingdom this week, there is an unnerving sense in which the ghost of Christmas past will be greeting the potential ghost of Christmas yet to come. The former imperial power meets with the current global leader at a moment when both countries face an expanding set of domestic and global tests.
Each will be hoping this visit provides an opportunity to convey bonhomie and unity against a landscape that is anything but friendly and settled. All eyes will be on this heavily choreographed visit.
It’s coronation day
In February, just a month into his second term, Trump hosted UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White House. In separate remarks following those sessions, Trump and Starmer extolled the “special relationship” between the US and UK, declaring that it remained “very special” and “true.” The leaders discussed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and efforts to bring peace by standing “side by side.” The most telling moment, the know-your-audience moment, came when Starmer handed Trump a letter from His Majesty King Charles. Opening it, Trump found it bestowed an invitation to Windsor Castle for a historic second state visit. The invite landed as it was intended, with Trump visibly tickled and honored.
That was February, when the return of Trump was still fresh and the UK, Europe, and the world had so many questions about the future of US engagement. Already at that moment, some of the answers were coming into view. Trump had imposed 10% tariffs on Canada and Mexico – two of the US closest trading partners - and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was a casualty of Trumpenomics, stepping down after it became clear there were no knots he could tie himself in that would appeal to Trump. Also, by February, the Trump administration had taken steps to dismantle the US Agency for International Development and six decades of US foreign aid policy. The retrenchment in American international funding and soft power raised alarms for food and security programs, health missions, climate and sustainability initiatives.
On security, just days after Starmer handed the King’s letter to Trump, the US president and Vice President JD Vance met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. The televised conversation devolved from cordial to contentious over the course of 45 minutes. An anticipated deal for Ukrainian natural resources went unsigned, and Zelensky was told he held “no cards.” Within a week, the US sided with Russia on a series of United Nations resolutions marking the third anniversary of the invasion. Europe was put on notice that the US commitment to Ukraine would be elusive.
We’re going to the palace
Seven months on, with Trump arriving in the UK this week, those early February trendlines have only accelerated. On trade, US partners, allies, and nearly everyone else have been “liberated” and hit with individualized “reciprocal” tariffs. On foreign aid, the administration has stayed its course. Just last week the US Supreme Court granted the Department of Justice’s application allowing the administration to continue withholding billions of appropriated foreign aid funding. Inn Ukraine, the conflict appears no closer to a resolution. After innumerable conversations, a Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, and much European handwringing, Russian drones incurred Polish air space last week.
The Trump administration’s ambitions to redefine the US global footprint is a familiar proposition in the UK, which has struggled to find its footing in the aftermath of Brexit. According to policy documents like the Integrated Review Refresh 2023, successive British governments have sought to position the UK for a more active posture on the world stage amidst increasing geopolitical volatility. Thus far, these ambitions have borne few tangible results.
Even as their global trajectories diverge, Trump’s arrival in the UK comes at a moment of domestic precariousness for both countries. From migration pressure to untenable budgets, divisive partisanship, fluctuating political attitudes and concerns over crime, these Transatlantic partners face a long and overlapping list of maladies.
The visuals are meant to be televised.
Against this backdrop, ambitions will be low for Trump’s visit. Neither side is likely to wade into sensitive domestic dynamics like the recent removal of the UK ambassador to the US, or American political violence. Announcements of a nuclear energy accord and promises of UK technology investments by US AI and chip private sector leaders will be the main takeaways, but are really window dressing. What is called for is a show of allegiance, an optical win at a time when other global leaders have themselves been busy.
Collegial images of China’s President Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) earlier this month grabbed widespread attention. A slew of analysis argued that this was the new world order, evidence that the powerful “rest” were joining forces against “the West.”
While it is not, in fact, the case that India, China, Russia (+ North Korea and Iran) are now locked into an exclusive alliance that will by magnetism bring others into their realm, countries are hedging their bets. With all the grandeur of a royal visit, Trump will be seeking out the spotlight and looking, once again, to rewrite the script.
What we’re watching: Kirk’s suspected killer in custody, Germany’s largest state goes to the polls, Turkish court weighs ouster of opposition leader
A combination photo shows a person of interest in the fatal shooting of U.S. right-wing activist and commentator Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University, in Orem, Utah, U.S. shown in security footage released by the Utah Department of Public Safety on September 11, 2025.
US authorities arrest suspect in Charlie Kirk murder
Law enforcement has arrested Tyler Robinson, a 22-year old man, accusing him of fatally shooting conservative activist Charlie Kirk on Wednesday. Officials said Robinson had admitted involvement in the crime and left extensive physical and digital evidence tying him to the killing. His political beliefs and motivations are not yet known, but they are sure to be a source of bitterly polarized debate and tension as they emerge. People close to Robinson reported he had become more political in recent months. Authorities said bullet casings belonging to him had been found carrying messages including “Hey fascist, catch!” and “if you read this you are gay, LMAO.”
Germany’s heavyweight state holds key election
This Sunday voters go to the polls for a local election in Germany’s most populous and industrialized state, Rhineland-Westphalia, in an early test for conservative Chancellor Freidrich Merz, who took power in May amid widespread concerns about immigration and the economy. Merz’ governing coalition holds a lead in the former West German state, which is home to a quarter of Germans, but faces a stiff challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has notched record gains in recent elections. Can the AfD, which has historically been strongest in eastern Germany, start to translate its eastern promise into western gains? The results will be a major political bellwether in Europe’s largest economy.