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Why Mark Carney’s victory won’t heal the US-Canada rift
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Mark Carney leads the Liberals to victory in Canada. So, what's next for the US-Canada relationship?
I think sometimes you have relationship with somebody, and they do something that shocks you, you can't unsee it, I think US-Canada is like that now. I think the damage is permanent. Of course, the interdependence is immense. The dependence on the Canadian side is higher. They're a much smaller country. Their population is right next to the United States. Just a thin strip there. So, it's not like you can suddenly decouple, but there's going to be a lot of de-risking. So, strong efforts, very tough negotiations coming on trade and on security, but also an effort to build infrastructure and ship Canadian resources away from the United States, towards other countries around the world. Medium-term, that's going to be a pretty significant change in how we think about Canada.
The conclave will pick the next pope. How is it relevant for the wider geopolitical landscape?
It's relevant because, increasingly, political leaders do not inspire. So, here you have a population as large as any country, about 1.4 billion Catholics all over the world, just like India, just like China. That's the size of the global population. If the next pope that is picked is someone who is inspirational, is someone that is seen as a 21st century leader that can reflect sensibilities and ideology, values that are not seen from political leaders around the world, in your own countries, then the ability to have an impact on what gets young people out, and motivated, and inspired and engaged in public service or on the streets, and mobilized, and demonstrating becomes significant. So, I do think there's a real opportunity here, but we'll see what it means when we finally see white smoke coming out of the Vatican.
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Trump’s inaction on wrongful deportation may spark constitutional crisis
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If the US won't work to return a wrongly deported man to El Salvador despite a Supreme Court ruling, are we headed towards a constitutional crisis?
It certainly appears that way, and I think this is the constitutional crisis that the Trump administration would love to have. Because wrongfully deporting someone without evidence who is in the country illegally and therefore guilty of a misdemeanor, but sending them to a max security prison, which the Supreme Court says you shouldn't do, but now is in another country. Very few Americans are sympathetic to the case of this person. And indeed, Trump won on the basis in part of being sick and tired of allowing illegal immigrants to spend enormous amounts of time in the United States without recourse.
So he's breaking the law here. He's flouting independent judiciary and their decision-making, but he's doing it on an issue that most Americans have no sympathy on the other side. So the Democrats would have to be very wary of making this a hill they want to die on, and Trump knows exactly what he's doing. It is pretty impressive playbook for undermining rule of law and checks and balances on an increasingly authoritarian leaning executive. That's where we are.
Trump claims China-Vietnam talks are intended to "screw" the US. Does this run the risk of pushing Vietnam to China?
Certainly, most Vietnamese now are more well-disposed towards China than the US. First time we've seen that since the war. It's not true across Southeast Asia. Philippines, about 80% still pro-US, not pro-China. But it is a problem, and Xi Jinping understands that. And that's why he went in and was received directly by the president as opposed to the prime minister last time who met him at the airport. 45 big deals that they're signing on trying to improve economic coordination. Clearly a bit of a surprise to Trump, just as the direct retaliation from the Chinese, even though the Americans warned them, "Negotiate, don't retaliate." But that's exactly what China did, and Trump frankly should have expected that was coming. Now he looks a little bit weaker in the way he's backing down and creating exemptions for a lot of people in this space.
Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's World Bank debt. Could this be a major turning point for Syria's future and its ties with regional allies?
It certainly helps. We've also seen the Qataris already say they're going to offer gas through Jordan into Syria. I think that this is all promising. The Saudis were never going to do that, provide any support as long as Assad was in place. Now they are. The Americans are pulling troops out, and Turkey is going to be the most important country on the ground. But economically, it's going to be the Gulf States, and that gives this new Syrian regime a better chance to succeed. Something we all clearly are rooting for in terms of one of the places that we'd like to see a little more stability from. Anyway, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
How are major economies bracing for the impact of Trump tariffs?
As the world reels from Donald Trump's on-again off-again "Liberation Day" tariffs, nations are lining up tomake deals – but also scrambling to shield their economies from the fallout.
The EU has proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff agreement on industrial goods. But the bloc is prepared to enact a 25% tariff on US products if negotiations falter, and is also considering deploying itsnew anti-coercion instrument, which enables a range of retaliatory measures including export controls, intellectual property restrictions, and foreign investment limits.
North of the US border, Canadaenacted 25% counter-tariffs on US vehicles. The revenue is earmarked to support Canadian auto workers harmed by the US tariffs. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump had also previouslyagreed that trade negotiations will take place after the Canadian election, scheduled for April 28.
Interest rate cuts. Countries including India, New Zealand and the Philippines slashed interest rates to cushion their economies, and South Koreaunveiled a $2 billion aid package for its auto sector. Many countries, including Australia, Spain and Canada, are also urging consumers tobuy domestic products rather than American goods.
China strikes back. China, for its part, countered the 145% US tariff with a 125% levy on American goods. Beijing is also looking to bolster domestic consumption through initiatives like Chinese e-commerce company JD.com's$27 billion procurement deal from Chinese firms. So far, however, Beijing has not moved to devalue its currency to support exports, as some expected it might.The art of the repeal? Trump scraps China tech tariffs - for now
When it comes to tariffs, US President Donald Trump is proving more, er, flexible than some thought. Case in point: late Friday, US Customs quietly published a list of tariff exemptions, and buried in the jargon was code 8517.13.00.00. If you know your customs codes, that’s the digital alias of… the smartphone.
Trump’s new 145% tariffs on Chinese goods will now (mostly) spare the devices, as well as laptops, memory chips, solar cells, and semiconductors.
Why the walkback? Eighty percent of iPhones sold in the US are manufactured in China. The full weight of the tariff would have sent sticker pricessoaring north of $2,000, torched Apple’s margins, and further spooked Wall Street.
What’s China’s reaction? On Sunday, Beijing acknowledged the “small step” butcalled on Washington to go further, drop the rest and return to a “path of mutual respect.”
That seems unlikely in the near term. Trump on Sunday pointed out that Chinese tech is still subject to a previous 20% tariff, and that more levies and penalties on Chinese electronics and semiconductors are coming. “NOBODY is getting off the hook,” he warned.
The president earlier said he’d give more details on the evolving US approach to the critical Chinese semiconductor industry on Monday. Keep an eye out for that -- it'll be the next big news in the US-China trade war.
Trump tariff is starting a US-China trade war
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Are the US and China rushing into a trade war?
Absolutely. I mean, if the Americans are actually going to impose tariffs of over 100% on Chinese exports of goods, it's essentially a trade embargo. That is a decoupling, and it's an unmanaged decoupling of US-China direct trade. Still an awful lot of goods from China to get to the United States through third countries. It's not clear all those will be cut off as the US negotiates with a lot of those countries. So people in America will still be buying Chinese goods, but inflation's going to go up. There's no question. And this is going to end up hurting the Chinese even more than it hurts the United States.
With an in-person nuclear talk set for Saturday, how confident is Trump that he can rein in Iran's nuclear program?
Well, it's interesting. What Trump is saying is that Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. That's different from what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying, which is that they cannot have a nuclear program of any sort. Trump wants to rein the program in. He did announce that there are going to be direct talks between the US and Iran. Iran didn't quite say that. They said they're having indirect talks, but if they go well, they'll lead to direct, which is certainly a concession to the Americans. And it's interesting that Trump did that while the Israeli prime minister was in the Oval Office visiting him. Bibi thought he was coming over for tariff relief, and what he got was Trump saying that Erdogan's his bestie, that the Israelis should be really thankful they get billions from the US, the tariffs aren't going anywhere, and that there's going to be negotiations with Iran. Really interesting. I think Bibi's got to be unhappy on his flight back to Israel.
Zelensky claims Ukrainian troops have captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia. How does it change the dynamics of the war?
Not at all. It does reflect the fact that Ukraine is under an awful lot of pressure and is trying to do anything they can to stay in the headlines, stay relevant, keep the Americans engaged and focused. I'm not surprised that there are two Chinese nationals fighting in Ukraine. Doesn't mean they were sent by the Chinese PLA. I mean, there are American nationals that have been fighting for the Ukrainians and it's not because they're sort of involved with NATO or sent by the US government. So I really don't think there's any there, but important enough for you to ask question. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
How Europe might respond to Trump's tariffs
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What's going to be the reaction to the Trump trade war against Europe but also against the rest of the world?
Well, it was worse than expected. What you will hear coming out of Brussels is strong words, but also saying, "Well, let's try and see if we can mitigate, if we can negotiate, if we can have some changes in this." That's going to take some time. Not much hope that that will produce anything. But anyhow, the attempt will be made. And then I would expect fairly strong European countermeasures.
But then, I think the global impact of it is really astonishing. Key US allies and partners in Asia have been hit much harder, even harder than Europe. So, we see the US in terms of economy retreating from the world, and trying to build its own small fortress there behind its oceans. For us, Europeans, the conclusion must be to do the opposite, to reach out to the world. 87% of global imports are not in the US. Two thirds of the growth of the global economy is going to be in Asia-Pacific in the years to come. So, Europe, well, US is doing its own thing, can't do very much about that. But we must be even more strategic, offensive, forward-looking in reaching out to the rest of the world. Develop and preserve as much as we can of an open global trading system. That is the way to prosperity in the future.
Episodes
Vietnam War, 50 years on
Fifty years ago today, North Vietnamese troops seized Saigon, and ended the Vietnam war with a communist victory.
How Trump fails, nuclearization, geopolitics on AI, and more: Your questions, answered
Welcome to another edition of my mailbag, where I attempt to make sense of our increasingly chaotic world, one reader question at a time.
Trump discusses Vietnam VERY STRONGLY
As the US marks 50 years since withdrawing from Vietnam, one person would like to revisit the history VERY STRONGLY. #PUPPETREGIME
Saigon’s Last Day: The fall, the flight, and the aftermath of the Vietnam War
April 30 marks 50 years since North Vietnamese troops overran the capital of US-aligned South Vietnam, ending what is known locally as the Resistance War against America.
Hosts
