Yet despite the flurry of diplomatic activity, the odds of a ceasefire remain slim. Not in the coming weeks, and probably not for many months to come. The reason is straightforward: Russia and Ukraine still have fundamentally incompatible goals, and neither side has found sufficient reason to compromise yet. Trump's singular focus on getting a deal no matter the details isn't changing that calculus.
The US president wants to end this war regardless of the consequences for Ukraine or Europe. That's been a priority throughout his second term, and he's annoyed it hasn't panned out already. When you want to get a deal at the lowest possible cost and don't particularly care about the terms or outcomes (either short or long term), the path of least resistance is to pressure the weaker party.
That weaker party, of course, is Ukraine. Not just because it has a smaller economy, population, and military than Russia. But also because Kyiv is currently caught up in a corruption scandal that recently claimed President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Trump and some of his team know Zelensky is in a challenging position domestically and are betting that pressing him harder will be even more likely than usual to yield results.
What they apparently don’t understand: Zelensky’s weakness makes concessions harder, not easier. Sure, recent polling shows only one-quarter of Ukrainians now want to fight until total victory – a dramatic reversal from the war’s early years. But the same polls show most Ukrainians still want an end to the war on Ukrainian, not Russian, terms. Even if he was so inclined, a more politically vulnerable Zelensky is less able to support a deal that smells like capitulation when his own people and military continue to overwhelmingly oppose it.
For its part, Russia knows it’s in a stronger position and isn’t trying to reach terms Ukraine might accept. In fact, President Putin isn’t trying to end the war at all right now. He believes Russia can achieve better outcomes on the battlefield than at the negotiating table. Russian forces are making slow, grinding progress in the Donbas. The costs are enormous – tens of thousands of casualties, economic strain, international isolation – but Putin has shown he's willing to bear them, and he’s convinced that time is on Russia’s side.
What Putin is doing by putting forward maximalist demands he knows Kyiv can’t possibly accept – de jure recognition of Russia's territorial annexations, Ukrainian neutrality with no meaningful security guarantees, effective limits on Ukraine's sovereignty – is exploiting Trump's impatience for a deal. The goal isn’t to negotiate in good faith but to look constructive to Trump and sympathetic European leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico in the hopes that Washington will blame Ukraine for the diplomatic failure. In Putin’s best-case scenario, this gets Russia two things: greater impunity in its attacks on Ukraine without worrying about American blowback, and a more divided and weaker NATO.
But Putin’s strategy of appearing constructive while rejecting real compromise has limits. Trump has already shown he can turn on Russia, too. His frustration with Putin’s intransigence earlier this year led to long-range strike permissions for Ukraine, sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, and pressure on India to reduce oil purchases. Meanwhile, Ukraine, Europe, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have done enough to ensure that Washington won’t restrict intelligence sharing with Kyiv or block Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
More importantly, the United States no longer holds all the cards. Washington is selling weapons and providing intelligence, but European nations are now fully funding Ukraine’s war effort. That gives Europe real leverage. Whether they leverage Russia’s frozen assets or issue more common debt, European leaders have made clear they won’t let Ukraine lose for lack of money.
So the war will grind through another round of failed talks, another winter, probably another spring. Russian forces will keep trying to take more ground. Ukraine will keep defending while striking Russian infrastructure. The human and economic costs will mount. Ukrainians’ position will likely deteriorate, even as Russians pay an enormous price in blood and treasure for limited gains. There won’t be enough willingness to compromise anytime soon.
I wish that weren't the case. But when the parties' core objectives are fundamentally incompatible, no amount of external pressure or diplomacy can bridge the gap. Peace will come eventually – when the battlefield and material circumstances force it. It won't come from the current diplomatic push, no matter how much Trump wants it.
