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Just kidding, Canada wants in on AUKUS after all
Just over two years ago, Canada’s Liberal government dismissed the country’s absence from AUKUS – the Indo-Pacific security alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. “This is a deal for submarines,” said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, “which Canada is not currently or anytime soon in the market for.” He assured voters it would have no impact on Canada’s Five Eyes partnership (the intelligence pact between Australia, New Zealand, the UK, the US, and Canada), and that was that.
Canada wasn’t being snubbed or sidelined for being a defense-spending laggard … or so we were told. Canada simply didn’t want or need nuclear submarines. Never mind that it was reported at the time that AUKUS also included military technology and information sharing as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy.
On second thought …
Fast-forward to spring 2023. Now, Canada wants in and is saying so publicly, citing – you guessed it – a desire to share information and military technology. Defense Minister Anita Anand hasn’t said whether the country has formally sought AUKUS membership, but if you read between the lines, it’s pretty clear that it wants in. "Canada is highly interested in furthering cooperation on AI, quantum computing, and other advanced technologies … with our closest allies,” Anand said this week.
(Not for nothing, New Zealand is striking a similar pose, recently suggesting it is also open to joining the pact for the non-nuclear bits.)
The truth is, two years ago there was plenty of handwringing about the state and future of defense policy when Canada was shunned from AUKUS. Ottawa was nervous that it was being shut out of key Indo-Pacific strategizing, a Five-Eyes world headed toward two fewer peepers.
“You can imagine, from the Canadian perspective, the idea that we’re slowly moving into a Three-Eyes world, certainly in the Pacific, and that we are there with New Zealand on the outside, is a bit of a shock,” says Canadian defense policy expert Philippe Lagassé, an associate professor of international affairs at Carleton University. Canada, he notes, does not wish for AUKUS to become a “de facto new alliance structure for the Five-Eyes.”
So what’s changed?
Canada may want to push harder to join AUKUS now that it has a better sense of what’s on offer. After all, Ottawa wasn’t included in the discussions leading up to the formation of AUKUS. “We weren’t privy to the details of what it might look like and what it might involve,” says Lagassé.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro-Geopolitics practice, agrees that the evolution of the alliance has made it more appealing. Initially, “the AUKUS agreement focused largely on Pillar I related to nuclear submarines, which are of limited interest to Canada,” he says. But when it comes to Pillar II and the development and sharing of advanced technology for both civil and military purposes, “Canada likely doesn’t want to miss out on the potential industrial benefits, especially considering its close integration with the US on the critical minerals supply chains needed to produce those technologies,” he says.
Domestic politics may also be at play here. As it happens, the security partnership – or at least the parts Canada wants in on – “pings exactly where some of this government’s spending priorities are,” says Lagassé. A look through government budgets and announcements shows that those areas include artificial intelligence, critical minerals, and quantum technologies, which are bound up in the AUKUS alliance.
Moreover, geopolitics has changed in the last two years. “Relations between the US and China have also deteriorated since AUKUS launched,” Thompson says. “Ottawa’s apparent change of heart should be understood in that much more competitive and uncertain geopolitical context.”
In short, Canada doesn’t want to be left behind, whether it’s on Indo-Pacific military strategy, information sharing, or technological development. And it definitely wants in on the lucrative contracts and trade that come with developing and selling military equipment that accounts for much of the economic activity in a handful of Canadian regions. These areas – Quebec, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, and Ontario – are home to a handful of seats in Parliament that the Liberal government needs to hold on to.
What’s in it for the US – and the others?
You might expect the US to welcome Canada to the party – even if it arrives late and without much to share. But maybe not. The US and Canada engage in significant military and intelligence cooperation as members of NATO and the Five Eyes, and Eurasia Group Senior Analyst Ali Wyne says “Washington would welcome opportunities to deepen [that], especially amid deteriorating relations between Ottawa and Beijing.” But, he adds, “there is no public indication that the United States is actively pushing for Canada’s inclusion in AUKUS.”
That may not come as a surprise to Trudeau. Owing to decades of bipartisan neglect, Thompson says that “Canadian forces are relatively underfunded and underequipped, so Ottawa lacks the overall capacity and capabilities that would make it a more attractive military partner for the US in the Indo-Pacific.” Australia, on the other hand, spends more on defense than Canada “despite only having roughly two-thirds of the population,” he adds.
It’s also not just up to the US. If anyone wants Canada on board, Lagassé thinks the US would probably be the most open to it, whereas Australia and the UK may be more reticent “because it would mean sharing potential economic benefits with a fourth partner.” The two smaller AUKUS partners might ask why Canada should reap the economic benefits if it’s “not spending on the subs” or contributing expensive, difficult-to-produce parts. “It’s not a charity,” Lagassé adds.
Choosing sides for Cold War 2.0
Backdropping AUKUS is an increasingly polarized global order in which the West and China are cast as adversaries, recalling a Cold War posture in which Washington headed the First World, pulling its allies into its orbit, while the Soviet Union led the Second World, collecting its own allied states.
Canada’s absence from AUKUS, says Wyne, “limits the extent to which it can align with key allies and partners in competing with China and shaping the Indo-Pacific’s security architecture.”
Canada tends to hedge its bets, not wanting to fully alienate China, from whom it imported $100 billion in goods and exported $27.9 billion worth in 2022. But there’s little doubt where most of its chips lie: with the United States.Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, MN Justin Trudeau, and Minister of Defense Anita Anand arrive at the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain.
What We’re Watching: Canada is defensive … about spending
The fallout continued this week from the leak of a Pentagon assessment of Canada’s NATO contributions, which has embarrassed the Trudeau government. The documents say that Trudeau has told NATO officials that Canada does not plan to meet the 2%-of-GDP funding target that NATO members are supposed to reach and that the cash-strapped Canadian military has disappointed its allies by not being able to contribute to the alliance.
The leak came on the heels of an open letter from Canadian officials and politicians who are worried that Canada is not doing enough on national defense. Joe Biden’s ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, tried to calm the waters, but grumbling continues.
As the war in Ukraine drags on, there are concerns that the allies may grow less patient with Canada’s unwillingness to ante up. There is also a fresh outcry that the government is not doing enough to protect the Arctic. An op-ed by former top civil servant Kevin Lynch and two co-authors noted on Wednesday that the “gap between government promises and the execution and delivery of these commitments is becoming a chasm.”
Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand recently sat down with GZERO’s Ian Bremmer to discuss the war in Ukraine and the power of NATO. Anand says Canada has seen an unprecedented increase in defense spending, and she notes that her country has NATO’s sixth-largest defense budget. She also points out that NATO’s monthly meetings entail the examination of each country’s capability, and that “we seek to complement each other.”
So will Canadian grumbling for more defense spending lead to a policy shift? We have our doubts, since Canada has already stepped up spending on jets, NORAD, and Ukraine, and there are traditionally few votes to be had in military spending in Canada.
Also, as Paul T. Mitchell, of the Canadian Forces College, points out, there is a long tradition of Canada being content to hide in Uncle Sam’s shadow and spend money on butter, not guns. He notes how a Canadian politician, back in 1875, observed: “situated as we are, not likely to be involved in war, and having a large demand upon our resources for public improvements, it was highly desirable to have our military affairs conducted as cheaply as possible.”
Plus ça change …
Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand discusses China's spy balloons & crisis in Haiti
On GZERO World, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand spoke with Ian Bremmer on two pressing issues for Canada: China's spy balloons and the crisis in Haiti.
Despite a suspected Chinese spy balloon being shot down over the Yukon and the need for Ottawa to have an Indo-Pacific strategy, Anand acknowledges that the world is becoming "increasingly dark" as Canada must keep "eyes wide open" on China.
In terms of Chinese apps, Canada has already banned TikTok on government devices and Anand has extended the same ban to her own children.=
Regarding Haiti, the US has asked Canada to send troops to help restore security, but Canada wants to focus on Haitian-led solutions. Anand admits it's difficult when all elected officials have fled the country, but believes throwing money at the problem won't make it go away. As she tells Bremmer, "we need to ensure we're taking a measured approach."
Note: this interview appeared in an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on April 10, 2023, "What the US and Canada really want from each other"
Canada is "eyes wide open" on China, says defense minister
Whatever happened to China's spy balloons? You might recall that a suspected one was shot down over the Yukon in Canada, although the terrain made it too hard to retrieve the debris.
Regardless, the crisis demonstrates the need for Ottawa to have an Indo-Pacific strategy and to be "eyes wide open" on China, Canada's Defense Minister Anita Anand tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Unfortunately, for Anand that means "we are seeing the world become increasingly dark."
And what about TikTok? Canada has already banned the Chinese app on government devices — and the country's defense minister has done the same for her four kids.
Watch the GZERO World episode: What the US and Canada really want from each other
Is Canada doing enough to help Haiti?
At their last summit, US President Joe Biden asked Canada's PM Justin Trudeau to send Canadian troops to help restore security in Haiti. But so far, there's no deal — and the country remains stuck in lawlessness.
Canada wants to focus on Haitian-led solutions, Defense Minister Anita Anand tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But how can you do that when we don't know who's running Haiti? All the elected officials have fled the country.
Still, Anand believes that "we can't simply throw money at a problem and expect it to go away."
What the US and Canada really want from each other
US President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally had their COVID-delayed summit in March 2023. Biden and Trudeau clearly get along, and US-Canada ties are as strong as ever. Yet, some thorny issues still need to be ironed out.
The two neighbors see eye-to-eye on things like immigration or pushing back against China and Russia. But there's friction on Haiti and especially on the US Inflation Reduction Act, whose subsidies are wooing Canadian green biz south of the border.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer discusses the bilateral relationship with David Cohen, the US ambassador to Canada, and Kirsten Hillman, Canada's Ambassador in Washington. Then, Ian asks Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand why she won't let her kids use TikTok (amongst other pressing national security questions).
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Podcast: How healthy is the US-Canada relationship?
Listen: On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer delves into the current status of the US-Canada relationship. In a nutshell: it's going well — definitely a lot better than under Donald Trump — but not all smooth sailing.
Ian interviews the ambassadors of both countries, David Cohen (US Ambassador to Canada) and Kirsten Hillman (Canadian Ambassador to the US), about what brings the two countries together and the challenges that trigger political division. He also chats with Anita Anand, Canada's defense minister, about a variety of national security challenges, from Chinese spy balloons to ... TikTok.
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