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A car is seen burning during renewed riots in the city of Lod, following the funeral of a 25-year-old Israeli-Arab man who was shot and killed during riots the previous night.
What We’re Watching: Clashes in Jewish-Arab cities, Nepal's COVID crisis, Uganda's forever president
Integrated Israeli cities on the brink: Another bloody day in Israel and the Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to bomb Gaza Wednesday, killing several Hamas commanders. At least 56 Gazans have now been killed in Israeli strikes, including 14 children. Meanwhile, rockets continue to fall inside Israeli cities, causing millions to flee to bomb shelters. The Israeli death count now stands at eight. The more startling development for intelligence analysts, however, has been the increasingly violent clashes between Arabs and Jews in integrated Israeli cities following weeks of confrontations in Jerusalem: an Arab man was pulled from his car and attacked by Jewish vigilantes in a suburb outside Tel Aviv, while Arab Israelis have burnt synagogues and attacked Jewish Israelis. Integrated cities like Lod, Acre and Haifa are often highlighted as models for broader Palestinian-Israeli peace, but as Haaretz reporter Anshel Pfeffer points out, these unprecedented clashes show that Israel's security apparatus failed to understand that Palestinians in Israel, Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank are still motivated "to rise up and show solidarity with each other." International actors are reportedly trying to get the two sides to agree to an imminent ceasefire. Will it work?
Nepal's COVID crisis: In the shadow of India and its catastrophic COVID emergency, Nepal now faces a COVID crisis of its own. The country's 1,100-mile, mostly open border with India is likely a primary route of contagion. A quarter of Nepal's 29 million people already live below the poverty line, and emergency services are poor. In particular, a shortage of medical oxygen, as we've seen in India and elsewhere, has sharply boosted the death toll across the country, and some patients are refused admittance because there aren't enough ICU beds to accommodate them. China has begun emergency shipments of oxygen canisters and ventilators, but relief organizations have also called on hikers in the Himalayas and local tour companies to return used canisters for refilling.
Uganda's split-screen politics: Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, an ex-rebel in office since 1986, was inaugurated on Wednesday for his sixth term in office. While that was taking place, police surrounded the home of opposition leader Bobi Wine, who claims Museveni fraudulently defeated him in the January election. The split-screen moment reflects the political zeitgeist in Uganda, deeply divided between supporters of Museveni — an aging strongman whom older, mostly rural Ugandans give credit for bringing economic growth through stability — and Wine, a popstar-turned-politician adored by young urban Ugandans. Wine believes the country demands generational change, and he and his supporters have been targeted by the armed forces that are loyal to Museveni. Still, Museveni has an ace up his sleeve: Uganda's expected oil boom means that the president will soon have a lot of cash to spend on social programs for the poor, and Western countries will tolerate his human rights abuses to get a taste of the black gold. As long as the military continues to back Museveni, Wine's odds of taking over remain slim.What We're Watching: Putin's next move, jabs for Palestinians, Wine goes to court in Uganda
What next for Navalny? Thousands of protesters supporting jailed Russian dissident Alexei Navalny braved an overwhelming police response on Sunday, turning out in more than 80 cities across the country to demand his release from prison. It was the second protest to occur in the two weeks since Navalny was jailed after his return from Germany, and more than 5,000 people were arrested nationwide. The intensity of the police response shows the Kremlin is taking no chances with the protesters, even though their numbers are still relatively small — nowhere near, say, the hundreds of thousands who poured into the streets of Belarus' capital last fall. And it's hard to imagine Vladimir Putin agreeing to release Navalny under pressure from the streets. In fact, it looks like his kangaroo courts are gearing up to lock up the nettlesome anti-corruption crusader and throw away the key. Europe and the US have threatened action if that happens, but sanctions against Russia have proved ineffective in the past. Lacking a political party in a system that is rigged for the party in power anyway, Navalny only has the streets: can they really shake things up enough from below that power starts to crack at the top?
Israel delivers some COVID vaccines to Palestinians: Israel has agreed to send 5,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine to Palestinian front-line workers in the occupied West Bank. After rolling out the world's most successful vaccination drive, having already inoculated more than 57 percent of its entire population, Israel came under fire in recent weeks for failing to include Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank in its ambitious inoculation scheme, though Israeli Arabs and Palestinians living in East Jerusalem were given the jab. Israel, for its part, says that under the terms of the Oslo Accords, the de-facto law of the land, the Palestinian Authority (PA) should oversee healthcare for its people. But critics say that the Fourth Geneva Convention states that an occupying power (Israel) has a clear responsibility to assist those living under its occupation (the Palestinians). While Israel's approval of the transfer is a positive development, the PA, which governs the West Bank, is still waiting on millions of doses to vaccinate its 2.5 million people. This deal also doesn't include the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, which already has one of the worst healthcare systems in the world. Palestinians (in the West Bank and Gaza) have inked deals for Russia's Sputnik V vaccine, the AstraZeneca drug, and are also waiting on batches through the international COVAX system which aren't expected to arrive until March.
Mr Wine goes to court: Ugandan opposition leader Bobi Wine has called on his country's Supreme Court to nullify the results of last month's election in which president Yoweri Museveni — a former rebel leader in power since the 1980s — was declared the winner. Wine and his supporters allege ballot-stuffing and other fraud, and argue that violence directed at Wine by Museveni's forces during the campaign made it impossible for the election to be free and fair. By taking his arguments to a court packed with Museveni appointees, Wine — a former pop star who is popular with younger, urban Ugandans — runs the risk of having his objections formally stricken down altogether. But he and his supporters are making the gamble that the opportunity to present their arguments is, by itself, worth the effort in order to expose the president.
What We’re Watching: Uganda’s generational election, Indian farm reform paused
Is it Wine o'clock in Uganda yet? Ugandans go to the polls on Thursday in a presidential election pitting current leader Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, against opposition chief Bobi Wine, a former pop star turned politician. The campaign period has been, in Wine's words, "a war and a battlefield" — authorities have arrested and assaulted him and shot at protesters who support him. The vote will occur amid a social media blackout that the government imposed after Facebook removed the accounts of some pro-Museveni activists, and the integrity of the vote has already been questioned by the EU and US. Museveni, one of Africa's longest serving leaders, is popular in the countryside, where he is lauded for having brought stability, growth, and subsidies. Wine is more popular among young and predominantly urban Ugandans who want change — Museveni has held power since before 80 percent of Ugandans were even born. Tensions are extremely high ahead of the vote, and the possibility of post-election violence is real.
Indian farming law on hold: After six weeks of mass protests against the government, India's top court has temporarily suspended the implementation of three controversial agricultural laws that farmers say pose a threat to their livelihoods. It's a temporary reprieve for Indian farmers, who worry that allowing them to sell their crops more freely — instead of at fixed prices to government buyers — puts them at the mercy of big corporations that can drive down prices and put them out of business. The suspension is also good news for the government, which was starting to suffer a serious popular backlash against the reform in a country where the agriculture sector employs a whopping 600 million people and accounts for 16 percent of GDP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, normally impervious to the political fallout of pushing controversial policies, this time met stiff resistance from farmers, who occupied highways on the outskirts of the capital and refused to budge in their demands to annul the laws. Moving forward, it's unclear if the pause will do more than briefly calm tensions if both sides remain entrenched in their positions.
Elections to watch in 2021
This year, voters in dozens of countries will choose new leaders. With the human and economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic as a backdrop, how will the worst global crisis in more than a hundred years play out at the ballot box? Here are a few key elections to keep an eye on in 2021.
Germany: A world without Merkel
This fall, for the first time in 16 years, Germans will elect a government that will not be led by Angela Merkel. The German Chancellor is stepping down, and the race to replace her is heating up. Her center-right CDU party will select a new head to carry the flag into the election, but non-centrist parties such as the far-right AfD or the leftwing Greens will try to continue to erode the dominance of centrist parties. Whoever wins, Merkel is a tough act to follow. During her tenure, she steered Germany (and Europe) through the financial crisis, the refugee crisis, and the pandemic. Her successor as leader of Europe's largest economy will take the helm right as Europe tries to dig its way out of a pandemic-imposed slowdown, adjust to post-Brexit life, rebuild (some aspects of) relations with the US, and navigate an increasingly challenging relationship with China. Viel Glück!
Iran: Hardliners wait in the wings
Hardliners hostile to rapprochement with the West did well in last year's parliamentary elections, and are the front-runners ahead of a presidential vote in June. That could complicate any push to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal — which Tehran has been violating since the US withdrew from the pact in 2018. Current president Hassan Rouhani supported the original deal and wants to explore reviving it — not least because sanctions relief would help millions of struggling Iranians. US president-elect Joe Biden does too, but will have to convince skeptics on Capitol Hill that any new pact hems in Iran's regional trouble-making. In the end, Iran's supreme leader will decide what Tehran can agree to or not, but the presidential election — and the campaigning around it — will be a crucial bellwether for Iran's domestic and foreign policy.
Uganda: Is it time for Wine?
Next week's presidential election pits current leader Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, against opposition leader Bobi Wine, a former pop star turned politician who is beloved by young and mostly urban Ugandans. The campaign period has been, in Wine's words, "a war and a battlefield" — authorities have arrested and assaulted him and shot protesters who support him. Museveni is popular in the countryside, where he is lauded for having brought stability, growth, and subsidies. Fearing electoral fraud, Wine has launched an app that citizens can use to "monitor" the ballot count. The possibility of post-election violence is high.
Russia: Will the "swamp" creatures return?
In November, Russians will vote in tightly controlled legislative elections that are almost certain to give victory to the ruling United Russia party. But Russia's been hit hard by the coronavirus crisis, and Vladimir Putin's approval ratings are near historical lows (for him, at least). The last time Russia held an election while Putin's popularity was flagging was in 2011. Grievances over corruption and Putin's increasingly out-of-touch rule then brought hundreds of thousands into the streets in what became known as the Bolotnaya Ploschad (literally "swamp square") protests. Alexei Navalny, a major star of those protests, is still in Germany right now after surviving an assassination attempt (almost certainly) carried out by Putin's security services. Will he try to return to the motherland just in time to stir up the streets?
Scotland: Edinburgh calling
After the UK voted in 2016 to leave the EU, the question of Scottish independence has become hot again. The last time Scotland held a referendum on independence from the UK, in 2014, 55% voted no. But pro-independence Scots, including current Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon of the Scottish National Party, want another referendum in the wake of Brexit, which most Scots opposed. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson — who would officially have to greenlight any independence vote — says it's too soon to hold another one. If Sturgeon's SNP rings up a resounding victory in Scotland's legislative election this summer, it could set up a serious clash between Edinburgh and London.
Triple play in Latin America
A number of Latin American nations hold elections this year, but three stand out. Over the past year, the pandemic has clobbered Peru's once-stellar economy and created political chaos — last fall, the country had three presidents in seven days. A presidential vote is scheduled for April, and former footballer George Forsyth is a leading contender among Peruvians sick of the same old faces. Keep a close eye also on Chile, which holds its first presidential vote since mass protests over social justice and inequality in 2019 and 2020 forced a rewrite of the Pinochet-era constitution. Lastly, Mexico's July mid-term legislative election will be a referendum — perhaps literally — on left-populist president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has remained popular despite mishandling the coronavirus pandemic. López Obrador has proposed including a recall vote on his own presidency on the same ballot.
What's another election that you think is critical to watch this year?Let us know and maybe we'll do another one of these later in 2021.What We’re Watching: Thai king is untouchable, Ugandan challenger arrested, US caves on Mexico DEA threat
No reform for Thai monarchy: Defying the wishes of thousands of pro-democracy activists and protesters, Thailand's parliament declined to move forward constitutional reforms that would curb the powers of the king. The vote had been delayed until Wednesday due to violent clashes between protesters, royalists and the police that left 55 people injured and put inflatable rubber ducks in the crossfire. Shortly after parliament's decision, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha warned that he would use "all available laws" to end the protests, which have been going on for months, signaling that he might start enforcing Thailand's draconian lèse majesté law, which punishes any offense of perceived insult to the royal family with up to 15 years in prison. Will the streets stand down, or is the situation about to get worse?
What's going on in Uganda? The detention of Uganda's popular presidential candidate, the pop star-turned politician Bobi Wine, has set off a wave of protests across the country, prompting a heavy-handed response from police that's already resulted in at least seven deaths. Ugandan authorities say Wine was arrested for holding campaign events that breached COVID-19 restrictions, but his supporters claim that this is yet another attempt by longtime President Yoweri Museveni to quash dissent ahead of Uganda's general elections in January 2021. Museveni, who's held the top job since 1986, has used various legal tricks to tighten his grip on power, including two constitutional amendments — and he was last elected in 2016 after jailing the opposition. Meanwhile, Wine, a political newcomer, is running on a platform of change that promises to put "people" first and reverse the culture of corruption and intolerance of dissent that has defined Museveni's rule. Will he prevail?
The fate of General Cienfuegos: Last month, in a scene out of a Michael Mann film, US agents detained Mexico's former Defense Secretary Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda at Los Angeles airport, on corruption and drug charges. At the time Cienfuegos, who headed the Mexican military from 2012 to 2018, was the highest-ranking Mexican former official ever detained in the US. Now, in a dramatic reversal, he'll be heading home to face prosecution in Mexico instead after the US dropped charges. Why? Because Mexico, which had been in the dark about the US operation, threw a fit over his arrest, reportedly threatening to kick out agents of the US Drug Enforcement Agency, which works closely with local authorities — particularly the Mexican army — to go after narcos and gangs. Now there are two questions: will Cienfuegos really see justice at home, and second, given the success of their threat, has Mexico City learned a useful pressure point for its future dealings with los yanquis?