We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Thailand votes for change
Opposition parties won Thailand's general election, according to a provisional tally released Monday. It was a particularly good day for the progressive Move Forward Party, which promised to curb the power of the army and decentralize the country’s Byzantine bureaucracy. MFP now looks set to win at least 151 seats in the 500-seat lower house.
Crucially, the party’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, has vowed to reform the country’s draconian lèse-majesté law, under which criticism of the monarchy can result in a whopping 15-year prison sentence. That message resonated with millions of first-time voters following mass youth-led protests that for the first time raised the issue in 2020-2021.
For more on what’s at stake in this election and why it’s all about the Thai youth this time around, see our explainer here.
Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai party – headed by the daughter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, who fled Thailand in 2008, two years after being deposed in a coup – looks set to come in second. Pheu Thai and MFP have agreed to form a coalition government to, well, move forward.
Though pro-military parties got walloped in the election, they could still come out triumphant thanks in large part to a constitutional reform that allows the military, which seized power in a coup in 2014, to tap all 250 members of the Senate. (The PM is chosen by both houses of parliament and the anti-military parties fell short of the supermajority needed to override a Senate veto.)
MFP owes its success to the Gen Z voters who back its liberal agenda. Still, given the outsized power of the military in Thai politics, there will be lots of wrangling in the weeks ahead to elect a PM and form a government.
A protester is seen with face paint reading "cancel lèse-majesté law" during the protest. Pro-democracy protesters gathered at Ratchaprasong Junction in demand of Prayut Chan-O-Cha resignation and lèse-majesté law (Thai Criminal Code section 112) cancellation.
What We’re Watching: Thai monarchy ruling, weed vs coke in Colombia, Moroccan olive twig
Don't mess with the Thai king. A Thai court has ruled that calls by three youth protest leaders to reform the monarchy are an unconstitutional attempt to overthrow the country's political system. Although the verdict is symbolic and won't carry a jail term, it paves the way for the activists to be tried for treason, which is punishable by death. But it's also a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the ruling is a clear warning shot to the youth-led protest movement that last year shocked Thailand by for the first time openly questioning the role of the king, a taboo subject until then. On the other, actually executing protest leaders could turn them into martyrs, driving more of their followers into the streets to face off against government forces. Regardless, the controversial notion of curbing the king's powers is now at the very center of Thai politics: it's the inevitable future for millennials and zoomers, a third-rail issue for mainstream political parties, and a non-starter for the all-powerful Rama X himself.
Can medical weed bring down the high of Colombia's cocaine industry? After decades of trying to stamp out a coca industry that has fueled violence and conflict, the Colombian government is looking to cannabis for help. President Iván Duque wants to boost the cultivation of medical marijuana as a more lucrative, eco-friendly, and less socially-damaging substitute crop for Colombian farmers. Duque, a strong opponent of decriminalizing drugs, made clear that the strategy would apply only to growing cannabis for medical rather than recreational use. He also continues to advocate aerial spraying as a means of eradicating coca crops, despite questions about the effectiveness and environmental impact of this approach. Coca cultivation in Colombia has reached record highs in recent years, as drug cartels have benefited from the poor implementation of Colombia's historic 2016 peace deal with FARC rebels, taking over drug-producing areas of the country that those militants once controlled.
An olive twig from Morocco to Algeria. Tensions between Morocco and Algeria have flared recently, over Algiers' support for separatists in Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony that Morocco considers its own territory. For half a century now, the militants of the Polisario Front have been waging a struggle for independent control over the region, a resource-rich swath of land blessed with plentiful fisheries that lies along a critical trade route for Morocco. Algeria has long backed the rebels as a way to needle Morocco. Earlier this year, Western Sahara figured prominently in a dispute between Morocco and Spain over migration flows to Europe. But in August, Algeria cut ties with Rabat over the issue, and last week accused Moroccan forces of killing three Algerian civilians in the area. Against that backdrop, Morocco now says it wants to "turn the page" on tensions with Algeria. But it also says that its demand for sovereignty over Western Sahara — only recognized by the US — is "legitimate" and non-negotiable. That's not quite an olive branch, but we'll call it a twig and see how this plays out.A protester is seen wearing a face mask with a sticker reading "Chase Prayuth" and raising a three finger salute during a demonstration against the Thai prime minister.
What We’re Watching: Thais protest against PM, Taliban government, India (again) shutters Kashmir, Suga out
Thai PM under pressure: Thousands of Thais took to the streets of Bangkok on Thursday to call for the resignation of embattled PM Prayuth Chan-ocha, who faces a no-confidence vote — his third in 18 months — on Saturday. For over a year, the retired general and 2014 coup leader — who's popular among older Thais, cozy with the business elite, and ultra-loyal to the king — has stared down a youth-led movement demanding broad democratic reforms, including, for the first time ever, curbing the powers of the monarchy. Now, the protesters want Prayuth out because Thailand has been badly hit by COVID while barely 11 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated — perhaps because the government is relying heavily on domestic jab production by a company owned by the royal family that has no previous experience in manufacturing vaccines. Prayuth will survive because he has enough votes in parliament, but the pressure on him from Thailand's emboldened youth won't go away.
Can the Taliban govern? Two weeks after taking over Afghanistan, the Taliban are preparing to announce their new government, with Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada as the supreme leader. But as we've written before, it's easy for gun-toting fundamentalists to take over city after city; it's much harder to actually govern the country. Perhaps realizing this, the Taliban have asked civil servants to stay in their posts to keep the government up and running. Some have agreed, while others, particularly high-level officials, have already fled the country, or do not want to work for the Taliban because they deeply mistrust them. Moreover, the Taliban do not seem to have a plan for dealing with the country's financial crunch, given that most US-held assets and foreign aid remain frozen. As the currency plunges and food prices surge, former central bank chief Ajmal Ahmady told GZERO Media the Taliban could soon run out of money. What's more, the group has still not fully consolidated power, battling rebels loyal to a former mujahideen commander in the Panjshir Valley (though that pocket of resistance will likely be quashed soon). The Taliban will project confidence when they announce a new cabinet in the coming days, but many of their biggest challenges are just beginning.
India locks down Kashmir after separatist leader's death: Although Kashmir's separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani passed away of natural causes on Wednesday, the Indian government is taking no chances with the possibility of unrest in the wake of his death: Delhi has cut internet access, imposed a lockdown, and deployed troops around the Muslim-majority region, which for decades has chafed against Indian rule. Authorities evidently forbade Geelani's family from burying him in a prominent martyrs' graveyard. For decades, Geelani was a combative and charismatic advocate of Kashmiri self-determination, whose hardline rejection of dialogue with India often alienated more moderate forces. His death comes at a sensitive time — last month marked two years since the Indian government of Hindu nationalist PM Narendra Modi stripped Kashmir of the autonomy that the region had enjoyed for decades.
Suga steps down: Japan's PM Yoshihide Suga announced early on Friday that he will not seek re-election as head of the governing Liberal Democratic Party. The announcement abruptly ends his controversy-plagued premiership after just one year, which has seen Suga's approval ratings plummet. Suga took over in September 2020 from his longtime boss, the charismatic Shinzo Abe, who resigned due to health reasons. In a time of continuing COVID emergency in Japan, we'll be watching the upcoming race to succeed him as both LDP leader and prime minister. The LDP will vote on party leadership on September 29. A general election will follow later in the year.
Happy US Independence Day! Now can you sing it?
When the United States celebrates its Independence Day on July 4th, many Americans will be singing the Star-Spangled Banner at sports games, parties, and other patriotic-themed events. To mark the date, we take a look at some fun facts about national anthems around the world.
1. Change it up.
Russia has had seven different national anthems throughout history. The current version is based on the Stalinist anthem of the USSR with slightly reworked lyrics, after Vladimir Putin scrapped the earlier post-Soviet wordless piano tune approved by his predecessor Boris Yeltsin. Putin himself loves to sing it — here's one of his most famous performances, in front of his supporters during the 2018 presidential election campaign.
2. Fix that typo.
The original 1813 version of Argentina's national anthem was somewhat perplexing: did the tune glorify the country's struggle for independence from Spain, or oppose it? The confusion was quickly resolved by removing an errant "o" to change the meaning of a phrase, making it clearer that the country did in fact support the war of liberation from the Spanish. It would have been much worse, obviously, if the lyrics had said nice things about Brazilians.
3. Write me a tune.
Rabindranath Tagore, who in 1913 became the first non-European to win the Nobel Prize in Literature, wrote the national anthems of his native Bangladesh as well as India's. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi once claimed that Tagore also composed Sri Lanka's national anthem, but some experts say there's no evidence of that beyond his deep musical influence on the writer of the tune.
4. Stand up — or else.
In some countries, not standing up for the national anthem is a criminal offense, like in Thailand. Sitting through the anthem, whose lyrics honor the Thai king, is a violation of the country's draconian laws that punish offenses against the monarchy with a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison. If you catch a movie in Bangkok, don't forget to stand up, as the anthem — with an accompanying royal family PR video clip — is played before all films.
5. Let's share.
The pan-African liberation song Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika, the current national anthem of South Africa, was also used at different times by Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. It's a multi-lingual anthem sung in a total of five languages: Xhosa and Zulu (first stanza), Sesotho (second), Afrikaans (third), and English (fourth). Interestingly, the lyrics in the Afrikaans and English stanzas are taken from Die Stem, the apartheid-era anthem Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika replaced when minority white rule ended in 1994.
6. Or let's split.
When Czechoslovakia was a united country, the first stanza of the national anthem was in Czech, and the second in Slovak. Following their split into two countries in 1993, the first stanza became the Czech anthem and the second the Slovak one, which explains why both are so short. Signalista Alex Kliment, who has Czech blood, tells us that the Czech tune begins by asking "Where is my home?" — while the Slovak one kicks off with a bang, invoking lightning striking over the Tatra mountains, but then quickly goes full emo about how the Slovak nation is sad and needs to be woken up from its slumber.
7. Don't have one — borrow someone else's.
Divided Cyprus has no official anthem, with the southern part of the island using Greece's — the longest in the world, with a whopping 158 verses — and the northern part adopting Turkey's. When the country joined the European Union in 2004, Cypriots from both sides rejected a wordless tune that the two factions had agreed on as part of a peace plan pushed by then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
8. Hum away.
Spain is the only country whose national anthem has no lyrics. Why? Because different Spanish regions couldn't agree on the words to replace the Franco-era ones, and few liked the result of a 2007 contest to come up with fresh lyrics. The Australian organizers of the Davis Cup tennis tournament couldn't believe it, and caused a minor diplomatic incident with Madrid in 2003, when they mistakenly played the wrong tune — a 1930s march from when Spain was briefly a republic — to the astonishment of the Spanish tennis players.
9. Don't get creative.
Music-obsessed Filipinos have very strict rules on how the country's national anthem must be played and performed. A 2017 law specifies that the proper rendition of Lupang Hinirang cannot deviate from the original musical arrangement and composition of writer Juan Felipe: "2/4 beat when played, within the range of 100 to 120 metronome, in 4/4 beat when sung." Straying away from the official melody can land you a hefty fine and up to a year in prison.
10. Rake it in.
As Signalista Willis Sparks reminds us, it took the US Congress an astounding 41 attempts to finally approve the Star-Spangled Banner as America's national anthem in 1931 — in part because Southern states complained it was the hymn of Union troops. It's considered the most commercially successful national anthem of all time, particularly the version performed by the late Whitney Houston at the 1991 Super Bowl weeks after the US victory over Iraq in the Gulf War. (Houston's rendition — commercialized to benefit the families of Gulf War vets — was re-released after 9/11, when it made the Top 10 and was certified platinum after selling more than two million copies.)