Indictment boosts Trump GOP standing and strengthens Democrats

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:

Former President Trump has been indicted. Now what?

This week, a jury in Manhattan indicted for former President Trump for allegations related to hush money payments that he made during his presidential campaign to a woman that he allegedly had an affair with. And the question is: what's next? So there's probably two major political fallout implications from this action. The first is that every other Republican in the country, including those running against Donald Trump in the presidential primary, are going to likely take Trump's line, that this is a political persecution, and it's being done by a hostile progressive prosecutor in Manhattan who's against him. And there's no way that Trump can get a fair trial. This probably helps Trump standing inside the Republican Party and could be a major tailwind to push him over the finish line in the Republican nomination.

The second implication is that this is probably pretty good for Democrats. If Trump wins the nomination, then there's going to be a lot of centrist voters and even moderate Republicans who have a hard time holding their nose and voting for him in the 2024 presidential cycle. And if he loses the nomination, then we have this hardcore group of Trump supporters who are fundamentally disaffected by the party and may not show up to vote for him, which could help Biden in his reelection no matter how bad the economy is. Either way, the next 18 to 24 months of this campaign cycle are going to be dominated by this and potentially several other criminal prosecutions against a former president. An unprecedented action in US history.