The interim agreement to end the war, signed by both sides on Wednesday, appears to tilt toward Iran: it lifts the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, grants sanction waivers for Iranian oil products – meaning Tehran no longer has to sell oil at a discount – and gives the Islamic Republic access to frozen funds, worth some $24 billion. While the memorandum includes the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it leaves the door open for Iran to impose duties on ships passing through the crucial waterway. The two sides have 60 days to negotiate the thornier issue of Iran’s nuclear program, but as is, the deal “resolves literally none of Trump’s stated war aims,” saidIan Bremmer.
Yet the Islamic Republic remains vulnerable. Its long-term leader is dead, his son and heir is reportedly injured (he hasn’t been seen publicly in months), and there is now no war to unite the country. Plus, they’ve now made a deal with the supposed “Great Satan,” the United States. Amid this backdrop, could the unrest we saw in January resurface?
Leftist candidate Iván Cepeda will take on far-right, shock-jock defense lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella in Sunday’s election. Polls show de la Espriella ahead, as his hard-line, tough-on-crime message – he said in February that “any bandit who does not surrender will be killed” – has resonated with the Colombian public amid a nationwide surge in violence. Cepeda, the anointed successor of the country’s first left-wing president, Gustavo Petro, has pledged to continue many of the incumbent’s policies, including “Paz Total,” or “Total Peace,” which focuses on negotiating with criminal gangs rather than with brute force. Yet the rising numbers of homicides and kidnappings suggest the policy hasn’t worked. Sunday’s winner will formally take charge on Aug. 7.
Speaking of football-obsessed Colombia, the national team defeated World Cup debutants Uzbekistan 3-1 at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Winger Luis Díaz was the star of the show.
Germany and several other EU countries have reportedly backed a French plan to adopt a US-style tariff strategy toward China, aimed at shielding its industries from what they see as an “existential” threat posed by Chinese imports. The European trade bloc worries that its industries – autos, chemicals, and machinery – can’t compete with the influx of low-cost goods (it does have trade deficit with China well over $400 billion). The proposal – still in the works – would emulate the US’s Section 301 authority, whereby the White House imposes tariffs on countries with “unfair trade practices.” There’s a certain irony here: Washington plans to use the tool not only against China, but also the EU, citing lackluster enforcement of bans on countries using “forced labor” to produce goods.
Political upheaval has become a norm in the past decade in Peru – and Keiko Fujimori helped to foster it. Now, she looks set to become president.
The England men's national team kicks off its World Cup campaign today against Croatia in Dallas.
From the sidelines 2026, US-Canada Summit, hosted by Eurasia Group and RBC in Toronto, Tony Maciulis sits down with Thomas Dans, chairman of the US Arctic Research Commission, to discuss why the Arctic is increasingly central to national security, energy development, critical minerals, and geopolitical competition
In this episode of "ask ian," Ian Bremmer looks at what the rise of Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire reveals about wealth, innovation, and the future of the American Dream.