US President Donald Trump reportedly told his aides to prepare for a longer blockade of Iranian-linked ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in the hopes that the Islamic Republic kowtows to his demand to dismantle its nuclear program. He appears to prefer this option to restarting a bombing campaign or exiting the conflict altogether. The US blockade appears to be hurting Iran: Tehran is scrambling to find new ways to store the oil that it can’t export and its currency is plunging. But how long would an extended blockade be? After all, high energy prices isn’t a political winner at home for Trump (no wonder he met with oil executives yesterday to discuss the issue). With the midterms coming in November, there could be a cap on how long this “extended” blockade can be.
The Marcos-Duterte feud continues to roil Philippine politics, as a House panel unanimously found on Wednesday that there was “probable cause” to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte over allegations that she misused funds and threatened the family of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. Duterte denies wrongdoing. The vote advances a process that could imperil her 2028 presidential bid – if she’s convicted in a future trial, she’ll be removed and banned from holding public office. Duterte and Marcos Jr. set aside familial differences to run on the same ticket back in 2022, but the goodwill didn’t last long, as the VP resigned from the Cabinet in June 2024 (yet kept her role as Bongbong’s deputy). A strong midterm election for Duterte’s party last year had appeared to give her a reprieve, but this vote suggests that might only be short-lived.
Incoming Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar is looking to patch up his country’s ties with the European Union before he formally takes office next month. At stake is about $21 billion worth of EU funds frozen during the reign of his predecessor Viktor Orbán, who proudly ran afoul of the bloc’s rules on judicial independence and media freedom. Magyar has pledged to root out corruption, roll back the offending laws, and revamp the country’s relationship with the EU. Also on the agenda is Ukraine; Kremlin-pal Orbán famously opposed EU efforts to arm Kyiv and sanction Russia. Magyar is OK with supporting Ukraine, but also said that any efforts to fast-track Kyiv’s EU membership must be put to a referendum.
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UAE's Oil Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei arrives at the OPEC headquarters for a meeting in Vienna, Austria, on June 4, 2023.
The Emiratis have long been frustrated with the crude quotas that the oil cartel imposes.
Charles’ visit to the United States this week comes at a precarious moment for US-UK relations. However, the US president’s reverence for the UK monarchy may ensure that the relationship remains “special.”