Can China and the U.S. Coexist?
As it turns 70, can the People's Republic of China coexist with the United States?
Well I'm not one of these people believes that we're heading to war, The Thucydides Trap, rising power, declining power, necessarily goes confrontation, in part because China doesn't have global military power or diplomatic capabilities. And even on the economy and trade they need to work with the United States. Both sides, although we know that. But on technology we don't see coexistence. Right now, we see zero sumness. We see an end in unwinding globalization. I'm deeply concerned about that. That's why I think we're heading to a tech Cold War.
What does low voter turnout in their election mean for Afghanistan?
Not just low, like the lowest in recent history. And it's, you know, in part because the security is an enormous problem. It's actually dangerous, physically dangerous for people to vote. And because the people that are going to win ultimately don't have control of a lot of the country in Afghanistan. So, it's less about elections than is about basic security. You got to get that right, first.
Is Ukraine the new Berlin Wall?
No, but it's absolutely the thing that's going to be dividing the Americans the most, between Democrats and Republicans, over the course of the next months. Interestingly, for Ukraine itself, we're closer to a deal with the Russians than we have been at any point since 2014, during the invasion. There was that recent exchange of prisoners and the diplomacy with the Europeans is actually picking up a little bit. It's not great. But it's moving, finally, in the right direction