The fallout also highlighted opposition to Spain’s migration policy within the EU. Poland, Denmark and Germany characterized Spain’s migrant-friendly policies – among the most welcoming in Europe – as “pull factors,” encouraging the surge and even threatening EU security. Italy said it was temporarily suspending its Schengen agreement with Spain, which allows passport-free travel across 29 European countries. Sweden and Finland joined the chorus, with Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen writing on X last week that “Spain has completely failed to protect the external border of the Schengen area from incursions. This cannot continue.”
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez rejected the accusations and noted that his government had regained control over the border within 48 hours and returned almost all the migrants to Morocco.
As EU ministers prepared to meet today, their tone appeared to have softened. According to several diplomats, they would reportedly focus on unity and ways to secure the bloc’s external borders and respond to any similar situations in the future, rather than assigning blame. But Sánchez’s policies – and the crisis – may still be used by governments across the EU to score political points at a time when concerns about migration are on voters’ minds. Within Spain, right-wing parties are eager to capitalize on the crisis ahead of Spain’s 2027 general election.
What triggered the surge? The Spanish and Moroccan governments have offered different theories. Sánchez has blamed organized trafficking networks, while Moroccan officials point instead to misleading information circulating on social media that allegedly convinced thousands of people that crossing into Ceuta would be easy, or that the border was open.
Several migrants claimed they were also encouraged by social media posts, which misinterpreted a recent Spanish Supreme Court ruling as granting migrants arriving by sea the right to stay and claim asylum. In fact, the decision said only that migrants arriving by sea cannot be immediately deported without due process, on the grounds that they don’t breach any physical border infrastructure like fences or crossings. Legal scholars say that if Spain installs a physical barrier in the ocean, as it did in the aftermath of the surge, the exemption from immediate deportation would no longer apply.
Another theory has fueled diplomatic tensions. The Mayor-President of Ceuta and the Spanish defense minister have accused Moroccan authorities of deliberately easing border enforcement. Some migrants claim that Moroccan police waved them through to climb over the border fence and encouraged them to “enter Spain.” The majority of the migrants were Moroccan nationals, with others coming from Sudan, Algeria, Egypt, Mali, and Somalia. European media outlets have reported the crisis may have been payback for Sánchez’s recent diplomatic engagement with Algeria over the independence of Western Sahara, a contested territory that Morocco considers its own.
It’s not just the right that’s upset about this. Even more moderate leaders are talking about hardening borders. In a letter to Sánchez on Monday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU must strengthen its external frontiers, including expanded use of physical barriers where appropriate. Britain, while no longer a member of the EU, is also tightening its approach to small-boat crossings in the English Channel in the wake of the events at Ceuta. New Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham has promised to be “relentless” in preventing migrants from crossing from France into the UK.
A challenge for Sánchez. The Ceuta crisis could also potentially cost Sánchez his job in next year’s elections. Already, opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the center-right People's Party (PP) has accused Sánchez of a “triple failure” on migration, security, and foreign policy. Weeks before the Ceuta surge, Feijóo said he was willing to govern with the far-right Vox party, whose leader Santiago Abascal has gone even further and called for Sánchez’s imprisonment at a rally in Ceuta this week. Together, the PP and Vox are now trying to make immigration the defining electoral issue.
Even before the migrant surge, Sánchez already faced an uphill election battle. The Spanish leader has faced a backlash for promoting his “summer playlist” while wildfires ravaged Spain, corruption allegations involving his government and party, and political opposition to his undocumented migrant work authorization program enacted this spring. Polls late last month showed the PP and Vox capturing 50% of the vote and between 196 and 204 seats – well above the 176 needed to govern. Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), which is part of a minority coalition, was predicted to win only 26% of the vote, and between 104 and 109 seats.
What’s next? Attention now turns to today’s emergency EU meeting, where member states will attempt to forge a common response. The immediate crisis in Ceuta may have eased, but the sight of tens of thousands of migrants overwhelming a European territory will not be easily forgotten – and could well influence both Europe’s migration debate and Spain’s political future.
