The conflicts over the last few years have put a major dent in Netanyahu’s political standing. The Oct. 7 attacks, in particular, in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and roughly 250 kidnapped, undermined his reputation as “Mr. Security.” The failure to destroy and disarm the militant group Hamas after the ensuing war, even as Israeli strikes killed an estimated 67,000 Gazans, didn’t help either.
What’s more, many Israelis felt Netanyahu was “prioritizing fighting Hamas over saving hostages,” according to Nimrod Novik, a distinguished fellow with the Israel Policy Forum. In March 2025, fewer than half of Israelis felt that Netanyahu had contributed to the January 2025 hostage deal, according to an Israel Democracy Institute poll, while 85% felt that US President Donald Trump had.
Meanwhile, Israel’s campaigns against Iran and the militant group Hezbollah haven’t gone to plan. The United States has essentially forced Israel to cease fighting with Iran before it achieved any of its goals – regime change, ending Tehran’s nuclear program, and destroying its ballistic missiles. As for Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group may be weakened, but it has shown some staying power amid the latest flare-up this summer.
“People were exhausted, and nonetheless were willing to take [these wars],” said Novik, who was once an advisor to former PM Shimon Peres. But when Israel didn’t achieve its aims, Novik added, the blame fell on Netanyahu’s shoulders.
Domestic issues have also hurt Netanyahu. He has continued to allow military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, even as public support for their conscription has surged. His efforts to weaken the judicial branch prompted widespread protests in Israel even before the Oct. 7 attacks. Plus, the PM continues to face long-running corruption charges that have tarnished his personal reputation and could, should he lose the election, land him in jail.
The PM’s current coalition, which currently holds 68 of the 120 Knesset seats, is expected to win just 50 seats, per a Channel 13 poll published Wednesday night. Likud would still win 22 seats on its own, per the survey, making it the largest individual party.
So if it’s not Netanyahu? Former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot has sprung to the fore as the leading contender to replace him. Like many Israelis, Eisenkot has personally suffered over the last four years, losing a son and two nephews during the Gaza war. This has helped him build a connection with the population. His centrist Yashar party, formed just one year ago, was just one seat shy of Likud in the Channel 13 poll.
Eisenkot’s domestic platform differs from Netanyahu's in significant ways. He supports military service for all Israelis, opposes the judicial reforms that Bibi desired, and even backs term limits for PMs. However, on foreign policy, the differences are much narrower. Like Netanyahu, he opposes a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and wants Israel to remain a regional power.
“I don’t expect Israel’s foreign policy to change significantly, defensively or offensively,” Jonathan Harounoff, Israel’s former international spokesperson to the United Nations, told GZERO. “No one who has a chance of running is going to compromise Israel's security.”
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – once Netanyahu’s chief of staff – had looked best positioned to challenge the 76-year-old incumbent after he announced in April he was combining forces with another ex-PM, Yair Lapid. However, Bennett’s time in office from 2021 to 2022 was far from perfect, as he struggled to reduce Israel's high cost of living, which left the door ajar for Eisenkot to become the leading challenger.
The US question. For decades, Washington has been an indispensable ally of Israel. But that status is coming under increasing strain, as Americans of all stripes – especially those who are younger – have become less sympathetic to the Jewish state.
That shift is playing out live. Just yesterday, nearly half of House Democrats in Congress voted to end aid to Israel – less than three years ago, just 37 opposed an emergency spending package to Israel. This week’s measure ultimately failed, leaving the $3.3 billion in funding from a foreign affairs package intact, but it is still likely a harbinger of shifting US views toward Israel.
A new Israeli PM could offer a chance to reset ties with Washington. After all, Netanyahu himself has recently become a source of criticism among leaders in both US parties. Trump lashed out at him earlier this summer over his military escalation in southern Lebanon, reportedly calling him “f***ing crazy.” Democratic presidential hopefuls, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, have also directly criticized Bibi, while retaining some measure of support for Israel.
“There are certainly wings in both US parties, on both sides of the spectrum, that have voiced concerns about Israel,” said Harounoff. “Israel has to pay close attention to them, because the United States is a really important ally.”
Don’t count him out. Netanyahu does have some tailwinds behind him, too. The economy is performing fairly well, with defense tech boosting growth amid the wars with Iran and Hezbollah. His age – 76 – does not appear to be a liability in this election, according to Novik. And the opposition is splintered, so it will be difficult for them to form a coalition (Netanyahu has more experience here).
That experience points to another X factor for Netanyahu: his political savvy. After all, he has faced political problems before and subsequently found a way to get back into office.
“There are still a few aces up Netanyahu’s sleeve,” said Novik. “And as we all know, he is the best player in public manipulation and election preparation. His combination of experience and skill is second to none in today’s country.”
