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Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his corruption trial at Jerusalem's District Court
Will Pegasus set Bibi free?
Israel’s spy agencies are notoriously sly operators. They have been known to take out high-profile targets in far-flung places around the world. Most famously, the Mossad tracked down and killed those involved in the massacre of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972.
But Israel’s spying prowess is rarely used on civilians at home – until now. (They do regularly track Palestinians.) It was recently alleged that police used Pegasus, state-of-the-art spyware, to track and hack a slew of politicians, activists, and journalists. Crucially, the bombshell report by Calcalist, an Israeli financial daily, claims that members of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s inner circle – including witnesses in his ongoing corruption trial – were also hacked.
A government-led investigation is now trying to get to the bottom of the still-uncorroborated claims. But if they’re confirmed, the political ramifications could be mammoth.
Background. The name Pegasus might ring a bell. The software, developed by NSO, a private Israeli tech company, was sold to a variety of unsavory governments that used it to hack political opponents and dissidents. (The Saudis reportedly used malware to hack relatives of slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi.) Because of laws governing the export of cyber tools, the Israeli government, then led by Netanyahu, signed off on these sales.
Bibi resurrected? As Bibi’s public trial on bribery, fraud, and breach of trust charges has brought yet more damning revelations to light, many observers have said in recent months that the Likud leader could end up in jail.
But if it is proven that police hacked and stole data belonging to Netanyahu’s son, his political advisors, and other key witnesses without judicial approval, then much of the evidence presented in court could be compromised. While Israeli law does not require judges to dismiss evidence obtained illegally, the court handling this case will have to decide whether to disqualify any illegally obtained evidence on a case-by-case basis.
Natan Sachs, who heads the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, says it’s too early to know what the court might do with the evidence. “In general, the Israeli rules for admissibility of evidence are less strict than in the US, and the ‘fruit of the poisonous tree’ is not dismissed quite as quickly,” he says. Still, “a lot is still unknown … and I’m sure Netanyahu’s legal team will mount an effort to dismiss the evidence.”
Whatever happens, recent revelations are likely to dilute the prosecutor’s case by lending credence to the pro-Bibi battle cry that the charges are part of a political “witch hunt.” The court has already agreed this week to delay two hearings while the wiretapping allegations are probed. If Bibi – who heads the biggest party in the Knesset and is popular on the right – gets off with just a slap on the wrist, he would remain a formidable player in Israeli politics.
Can a fragile coalition survive? Last summer, after four elections in two years, Israel finally formed a new government. The broad coalition – made up of seven parties, including Arabs and Jews – is one of the most ideologically diverse in the country's history. Motivated by a shared ambition to keep Bibi out of power, the coalition – which successfully passed the first state budget in almost three years – has so far proven wrong the naysayers who predicted its imminent downfall.
Still, the coalition is unwieldy, and a scandal like this would be hard for any government to weather. Things could start to unravel if it’s revealed that high-level government officials had any prior knowledge of the hacks.
But Lahav Harkov, diplomatic correspondent for The Jerusalem Post, disagrees. She doesn’t think this scandal will impact the coalition’s stability. “It seems that the entire government agrees that there should be an investigation of some type, and many ministers have publicly called for a commission of inquiry,” Harkov says. This sort of “high-level government-appointed investigative body has been used to examine huge issues like the handling of the Yom Kippur War.”
Indeed, recriminations are already flying: Gidon Sa’ar, who now heads the ministry of justice, says these illegal wiretaps occurred under Netanyahu’s watch. Meanwhile, Bibi’s Likud party, now in opposition, smells blood in the water and an opportunity to reverse its political misfortunes. But that effort is unlikely to succeed, according to Sachs, who points out that “this affair all happened, ironically, under Netanyahu, and most of the relevant ministers and police officials were his own appointments.”
Looking ahead. Ultimately, a lot would have to go right for charges against Bibi to be dismissed. But never rule out the resilience of a man who has managed to maneuver his way across many political minefields over the past four decades.
What We’re Watching: Ukraine’s tumultuous politics, Netanyahu’s endgame, escalation in Yemen
Ukraine’s political woes. While Russia maintains tens of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border, domestic politics in Kyiv are becoming increasingly contentious. This week, former President Petro Poroshenko — who was elected in 2014 after the Maidan Revolution ousted a longtime Putin ally and then defeated for re-election in 2019 — has now returned to Ukraine after a month abroad to face a host of criminal charges. Those charges include treason, an alleged crime related to his decision to sign government contracts to buy coal from mines held by Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Poronshenko, a businessman worth $1.6 billion, says the deal was necessary to keep Ukraine from economic collapse and that the charges are an attempt by current President Volodomyr Zelensky to distract from unfavorable perceptions of the country’s (currently lousy) economic outlook. He also calls it a manufactured crisis and a “gift” to the Kremlin, because it distracts from Russia’s ongoing aggression. Also, on Friday US Secretary of State Tony Blinken will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to continue talks on resolving the Ukraine standoff.
A plea deal for Netanyahu? Amid an ongoing criminal trial, Israel’s former PM Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly negotiating a plea deal with the prosecution that could help him avoid jail time on a series of corruption and breach of trust charges. As part of the deal, the former PM would admit to some fraud charges, while others would be dismissed. Instead of prison, he’d face up to six months of community service. Several stumbling blocks remain. First, it’s unclear whether Netanyahu’s camp will acknowledge “moral turpitude,” a step that would bar the 72-year-old from running for public office for seven years. Even if both sides agree to the deal — which would include an admission of guilt from the former PM and current head of the opposition — the judge would have to issue a verdict and accept the deal, which some analysts and most Israelis say is too lenient. It’s a race against the clock: the current Attorney General wraps up his term in a few weeks. His successor might have a different view of this offer.
Escalation in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition has launched a barrage of attacks in Yemen just days after Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a surprise drone attack on oil tankers in the port of Abu Dhabi. At least 14 people were reportedly killed on Tuesday when Riyadh launched retaliatory air raids against Houthi strongholds in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital. The Houthi port attack inside the UAE represents a significant escalation in the years-long civil war in Yemen, where Houthis have mostly targeted neighboring Saudi Arabia for its backing of government forces since 2015. An unannounced ceasefire between the Emiratis and Houthis had led to zero attacks inside the UAE from 2018 until this week. Though the Emiratis have scaled back their involvement in the conflict in Yemen in recent years, they continue to yield significant influence there.What We're Watching: Bibi on trial, Iran nuclear talks resume, Kosovo's election
Bibi on trial as deadlock continues: One political commentator described it as "the ultimate Israeli split screen." As Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu's corruption trial finally kicked off after months of delay because of the coronavirus pandemic, political parties were meeting with Israel's President Reuven Rivlin to "recommend" whether the incumbent PM or the opposition should be given the first shot at trying to form a new coalition government after Israelis recently went to the polls for the fourth time in two years. Back in court, the prosecutor said that the PM made "illegitimate use" of his power to obtain favorable media coverage and other luxury perks, with Bibi responding by calling the trial an "attempted coup." The political temperature could not be hotter right now: though Netanyahu is likely to have the votes to try and form a government in the next few weeks, political stalemate persists, making it increasingly unlikely that he will be able to hobble together a workable coalition. Netanyahu also must appear in court three times a week, a massive distraction as he tries to save his political career. All this comes as Israel tries to revive its post-pandemic economy without a stable government or a national budget. The prospect of a fifth election looms large.
Iran talks finally resume: After months of speculation over how to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which the US unilaterally abandoned under the Trump administration, most signers of the pact — France, Germany, the UK, China, and Russia — will meet in Vienna on Tuesday to chart a path forward. But there's a catch: representatives from the US and Iran will be present but they will not meet face-to-face. Why? Because the Iranians still insist that the US immediately lift all 1,600 economic sanctions — worth $1 trillion in economic damages — first. The US, meanwhile, says that the Iranians — who have enriched uranium well beyond the deal's limits in recent years — must fall back into compliance with the accords themselves. The other signatories will try to bring Washington and Tehran closer, but that won't be easy. Trust on both sides has cratered after six years of bluster and confrontation, with the Americans insisting Tehran cease its support of terrorist proxies across the Middle East. But time is of the essence: Iran is set to hold national elections in June and if hardliners win the presidency and parliamentary seats, Tehran could lose interest in engaging with America at all.
Kosovo parliament elects a president just in time: With just one day until a deadline that would have triggered snap parliamentary elections, the tiny Balkan nation of Kosovo's legislators on Sunday elected 38-year old lawyer and activist Vjosa Osmani as president, representing the ruling leftwing nationalist Vetëvendosje movement. The post had been formally vacant since last November when her predecessor stepped down over war crimes accusations. Two prior attempts to elect a president in recent days had failed because boycotts by opposition parties and ethnic-Serb parties prevented the body from reaching quorum. Osmani and Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who founded Vetevendosje himself as an anti-establishment party more than a decade ago, have styled themselves as a younger and more liberal generation of Kosovar leaders. One of the biggest challenges, in addition to a massively struggling economy, is to chart further progress in peace talks with Serbia, which — with backing from China and Russia — still refuses to recognize the independence of its former province. (Kosovo, with support from NATO, declared independence in 2008 after more than a decade of struggle against the threat of ethnic cleansing at the hands of Serb nationalists.) The Trump administration brokered a partial normalization of economic ties last year but deep misgivings remain on both sides.
Israel's "anyone but Bibi" election
Israel's merry-go-round politics are front and center again as Israelis are set to head to the polls on March 23 — the fourth time in two years. Billions of shekels later, will Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu finally be shown the door?
While anything can happen in Israel's tumultuous politics, Bibi's downfall seems as likely as ever (though the race is tight) as his Likud party languishes in the polls. So what's changed, and what's the state of play as the campaign enters the homestretch?
Who are the key players?
One key difference this time around is that several longtime Netanyahu loyalists have defected from Likud, forming a new alliance on the right to oust their former boss.
The right-wing New Hope party, led by former Netanyahu ally Gideon Sa'ar, has attracted former Bibi allies, signaling a major blow for the loyalty-obsessed incumbent. At the same time, Bibi is having a hard time reverting to his old playbook of "left-shaming" because Sa'ar and his cohort have risen through the ranks of Bibi's own Likud camp, and their right-wing bonafides are well established.
In an electorate where a majority of Jewish Israelis identify as "right-wing," Netanyahu has to reinvent the wheel — a lot. However, while early political momentum seemed to be on Sa'ar's side, recent polls show his popularity waning, thus complicating his path to forming a viable coalition (though he could still sit in a coalition led by a different party).
For years, Benjamin Netanyahu has portrayed himself as Israel's elder statesman — the only leader who can aptly represent Israel on the international stage, and push back against global heavyweights to defend Israel's acute security needs. While polls still show his Likud party would likely win the most seats if elections were held today (29 out of 120), it's unclear whether he would be able to cobble together a coalition to clinch a 61-seat majority.
Moreover, Bibi's global leadership record resonates less with a struggling Israeli public that's been crippled by the economic aftershocks of the pandemic. Although Israel is beyond the darkest days when 800,000 people lost their jobs in mere weeks, and unemployment soared to a staggering 24 percent, economists say that the country's economic recovery will take a number of years.
Meanwhile, Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid party is gaining steam in the polls (he would pick up about 20 seats if the ballot was held today). Lapid — a former journalist who entered the political fray in 2012 focusing on social justice, economic inequality and reducing the outsized influence of the ultra-Orthodox in Israel's political life — has a simple message: bringing "sanity" back into Israeli politics. But opponents on the right say Lapid's lack of governing experience (he served only a brief stint as finance minister from 2013-2014) is disqualifying as the COVID crisis lingers.
Naftali Bennett, a former Netanyahu protégé, is shaping up to be "kingmaker." Both an anti-Bibi coalition as well as a Netanyahu-led bloc would need the support of his right-wing Yamina party (currently polling at 11 seats) to reach a majority in the Knesset, Israel's parliament.
What are some of the key issues?
Pandemic and economic revival. The Netanyahu campaign's main selling point is that the PM has overseen the world's speediest vaccine rollout, with 60 percent of the population having now received a jab (though he's been criticized for not providing enough vaccines to Palestinians in the occupied West Bank). Bibi is touting his strong record securing millions of doses of the coveted Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine before many other countries, which has resulted in European states like Denmark, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic now turning to Israel for help. But his political opponents are highlighting the country's economic stagnation, high unemployment rate, and mixed messaging on the pandemic that showed deference to Bibi's ultra-Orthodox political allies as signs that change is needed now more than ever.
Bibi's corruption trial, the judiciary, and democracy. The election campaign comes to a head as Bibi faces an ongoing corruption trial that could send him to prison. The PM says the courts have overreached, but critics argue that Bibi's desperate to stay at the helm so he can pass a retroactive law that would bar a sitting prime minister from facing trial. In their view, Netanyahu — and his supporters — have launched a vicious attack on the judiciary that's undermining Israel's separation of powers. If Netanyahu retains power, Lapid says, Israel will cease to be a democracy: "It's not a dictatorship, it's an in-between, a hybrid, anywhere between Hungary and Turkey."
Bottom line: With Israel's once-dominant left-wing camp in tatters, the upcoming political battle will take place solely on the right. Bibi has established himself as the perennial come-back kid, but this time it'll be much harder to use his old tricks against those who used to be on the inside.
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What We're Watching: Myanmar protests test the generals, Haiti's political chaos, Netanyahu in the dock
Myanmar protests test junta's patience: It didn't take long for the Myanmar military junta to get an earful from the streets. Since staging a coup last week, in which they detained civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, they have been met with a growing protest movement in the capital, Naypyidaw, and other cities across the country. Flying the flag of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party and carrying images of Lord Buddha, the protesters say they are demanding an end to "dictatorship." The generals, for their part, have so far showed restraint, deploying water cannons against the protesters this time, rather than shooting them dead, as they ended up doing in 1988 and again in 2007. But the military has warned ominously that it won't tolerate actions that undermine "state stability, public safety, and the rule of law." With the world watching, will the generals change tack and crush the protests after all — in the end, who's to stop them?
Haiti's term limit turmoil: Haiti's embattled President Jovenel Moïse said Sunday that his government had arrested more than 20 people whom he accused of plotting to overthrow his government. For months, Haiti has been wracked by deepening political turmoil and violence over what should be a simple question: when does the president's term end? Moïse's opponents say that his five-year term was due to expire on Sunday, and they've called for a two-year transition government. But the president argues that because an interim government ran the country during the first year of his term, he actually has until February 2022 to lead. Top justices in Haiti as well as human rights advocates have sided with the opposition, but the Biden administration, as well as the Organization for American States and the United Nations, are all in Moïse's corner, for now. With no obvious way out of the deadlock at the moment, Haiti — the Western Hemisphere's poorest country — is on the brink of a potentially disastrous explosion of political violence.
Israel's Netanyahu in the dock: Just six weeks out from Israel's fourth general elections in the past two years, Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu is back in court facing a host of corruption charges. Bibi, Israel's longest serving PM, has pleaded not-guilty to charges that he directed favorable government policy towards prominent media and business figures in exchange for gifts and positive media coverage. Bibi says the whole thing is a political "witch hunt," but if convicted, the forever-leader could face several years behind bars. A verdict is not expected to be handed down for months — or even years (Netanyahu's camp has already called for further delays to the proceedings until after the March 23 election) -- but the political impact of the case so close to the polls is worth watching. The March vote will largely be a referendum on Bibi, but will negative fallout from the trial really hurt him? Or is it the case that, as some observers say, most Israelis decided long ago whether they are "for or against Bibi"?