We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
US-Iran World Cup sportsmanship amid political tensions
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How did Iran's attention in the World Cup impact protests at home?
Well, I mean, it certainly didn't slow them down any. When you see the Iranian national team first refusing to sing the national anthem and then singing it as woodenly and non-passionately as humanly possible because they've been threatened, and threatened about their families at home if they aren't singing it, that's a hell of a message to send to the Iranian people. And the fact that this country does not reflect its regime, a team does not reflect its regime, it's just extraordinary. And also, I just have to say that all of the pictures and the videos we've seen of the Iranian team and the American team actually coming together, the Americans consoling the Iranians, who have been under such massive stress and crying, and I mean, you can't even imagine performing at that level on the global stage, given the level of additional political pressure and danger that they're actually under. My heart goes out to those guys, and of course to the Americans for doing such a great job representing our country.
Will protests force Xi Jinping to finally abandon China's zero COVID policy?
No, not at all. First of all, those protests are largely already in the rear-view mirror. I do not expect we will see a reprise of them at that size in the near future. Certainly not with people calling for Xi's removal. Big consequences for that going forward. And I think a lot of people understand that. But this also means big consequences for the Chinese economy. And ultimately, difference in somewhat looser interpretation of implementation is very different from, we're stepping away from zero COVID. They're not ready to do that yet. They won't do it yet. And so Chinese growth is still going to be very slow. China's social anger at these policies is still going to be something difficult they're going to have to deal with.
Why is Mexico and the US fighting over corn?
Well, apparently it's because Lopez Obrador is not willing to allow GMO corn from the United States to come in. Now, half of Mexico's corn apparently comes from the United States, and this would be a really big challenge, both for the relationship as well as for Mexican food demand. The Trump administration tried to push AMLO on it, kind of failed. Biden administration pushing AMLO on it, kind of fails. So as a consequence, it's likely to be going towards USMCA, the Mexico Canada deal, into arbitration. And nobody likes to see that, but that's where we are.
- World Cup heats up Argentina’s presidential race ›
- World Cup politics go way beyond Qatar ›
- Great Satan on the pitch, big troubles at home — Iran's World Cup dilemma ›
- Is the Iran nuclear deal dead – again? ›
- Will politics or soccer win Qatar's World Cup? ›
- Why Iranians celebrated their soccer team’s World Cup elimination - GZERO Media ›
Iran fans hold Freedom For Iran and Women Life Freedom placards before the 2022 FIFA World Cup Group B match against England in Doha, Qatar.
Great Satan on the pitch, big troubles at home — Iran's World Cup dilemma
The US and Iran go to war Tuesday ... on a soccer pitch. The two sides meet in their last first-round game of the Qatar World Cup, and whoever wins will almost certainly advance to the knockout stage — a first for Iran.
But this time the long-running geopolitical tensions between the two bitter enemies have taken a back seat to the ongoing women-led protests against the theocratic regime in Iran, the biggest the country has seen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Iranian players have been caught in the crossfire. In the lead-up to the tournament, they were bashed by anti-government activists who viewed them as puppets of the ayatollahs. Some prominent figures even called for FIFA to ban Iran from the World Cup over the regime's brutal crackdown. But how things have changed since the ball started rolling in Qatar.
Before their first game against England, Iran’s players grabbed global headlines by staying quiet during their national anthem in solidarity with the protesters. That smoothed things over with their critics but enraged the ayatollahs. The regime responded by warning Team Melli, as the squad is popularly known, to do its patriotic duty in their next match, or else. In the end, they did — albeit without the joy they showed two hours later following an epic injury-time victory over Wales.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.Sina Saemian, the Iranian-born UK host of the Gol Bezan soccer podcast, is almost certain that Team Melli will sing the anthem on Tuesday ahead of kickoff. However, he says, there will be zero passion because "whenever you're forced to do something against your will, you'll automatically want to rebel against it."
And it's not just the ayatollahs who are piling on the pressure. If the players stay silent, their families might get arrested; but if they do more than just mumble the lyrics, the side they actually back will resent them for it.
For US-based Dara Zarandi, a contributor to the Team Melli Talk podcast and YouTube show, "the players are in a really, really sensitive and difficult situation. And unfortunately, the people who are [against] the national team either don't acknowledge the reality of the situation or just don't honestly know what's going on behind the scenes."
And what about facing the all-powerful United States, Iran's geopolitical nemesis? Just two months ago, the narrative would have been a death match vs. Great Satan, which is punishing Iran with crippling economic sanctions over its nuclear program.
More recently, though, Saemian says that many Iranians have come to "see that actually, the enemy is within. The enemy is inside." For sure, he adds, they are still wary of the US, but thanks to the protests the "anti-American sentiment has somewhat decreased."
The buzz about the game has hardly been a repeat of France '98, when Iran pulled off a huge upset by defeating the stronger US team by 2-1 and kicking it out of the knockout stage.
Back then, the US government went out of its way to downplay the non-soccer stakes because Washington saw a window of opportunity for warmer ties following the 1997 landslide election of reformist President Mohammad Khatami. Meanwhile, Tehran doubled down on the political drama, dubbing the match the "Mother of all Games." (Not-so-fun fact: At halftime, Iranian officials seized the team's passports to prevent the players from returning home if they lost.)
Now, the Biden administration has been firm in its support for the protesters and USMNT weighed in scrubbing the emblem of the Islamic Republic from Iran's national flag on social media. The regime —which until then had barely mentioned the match, as it was busy arresting and killing demonstrators — responded by demanding FIFA expel the US from the tournament.
Whatever the final result, the politicization of the national soccer squad amid the protests will have staying power — and the anti-government movement only stands to benefit if Team Melli does well in Qatar. For Zarandi, the further the team goes in the tournament, "the more people will be talking about what's going on."
One name to watch is striker Sardar Azmoun, the most outspoken supporter of the protesters. If he scores the winning goal, don't be surprised by a celebration that might win hearts and minds but also have serious consequences for his loved ones.
Throwback: When Iran qualified for its first World Cup in 1978, the country was also in political turmoil — although the mass rallies and strikes against autocratic Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi took a summer break that coincided with the tournament. Iran's captain stayed home to protest the shah's repression, the team had a dismal run, and months later Pahlavi was out.
Will history repeat itself?
- US-Iran World Cup sportsmanship amid political tensions - GZERO Media ›
- Why Iranians celebrated their soccer team’s World Cup elimination - GZERO Media ›
- Iran's morality police: not disbanded - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: After Mahsa Amini: Iran’s fight for freedom, with Masih Alinejad - GZERO Media ›
- Iranian activists want the West to stop legitimizing Iran's regime - GZERO Media ›
Iran's Ahmad Noorollahi, Sadegh Moharrami, and Alireza Jahanbakhsh line up during the national anthems before the World Cup match against England.
What We're Watching: Iran's silent anthem, Russia's tech brain drain
Iran’s Kurds rise up, soccer squad goes silent
Even as widespread anti-government protests over democracy and women’s rights continue across Iran, things are getting particularly dicey in Kurdish-majority areas along the northwestern border with Iraq. Iran’s revolutionary guards have not only cracked down on the protests in the city of Mahabad, but they also reportedly sent missiles across the border into Kurdish areas of Iraq for good measure. Kurdish groups have struggled for independence from Iran for more than a century, and Mahabad is hugely symbolic — it was the capital of a short-lived independent Kurdish state in the 1940s. Meanwhile, the broader anti-government protests continue to get high-level sympathizers. Two prominent female actors who removed their headscarves publicly in solidarity were arrested over the weekend. Then, on Monday, Iranian footballers stunningly refused to sing Iran’s national anthem ahead of their opening World Cup match in Qatar as a show of support for the protests back home.
Russia’s crumbling tech sector
Young Russians with tech talent face a bleak future. Before the war, the country’s tech sector was heavily dependent on financial backing from the government and the well-connected people who profit from it. Then, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the US, EU, and other countries ended the export of semiconductors, microelectronics, lasers, telecom equipment, and other tech essentials to Russia. They also blacklisted Russian tech companies and research institutions. Western tech giants left Russia. But the withdrawal of Western technology is not the only seismic shock for Russia’s tech future. Many of those talented young Russians working in tech have fled their country in search of better prospects for themselves and their families. Some men may fear that a future military mobilization will force them to fight in Ukraine, and every new rumor feeds this anxiety. This latest Russian brain drain will deliver economic — and, therefore, political — shocks for decades to come. Well aware of this problem, Moscow has offered military deferments, tax breaks, and other economic incentives to persuade people to remain in Russia. But none of these inducements can match what the most talented can earn in Europe or the United States.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.