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Sturgeon's arrest roils Scottish politics
On Sunday, Scotland's former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was briefly detained over a police investigation into some 600,000 pounds ($750,000) worth of missing funds at the Scottish National Party. She was released without being charged after seven hours of questioning.
The arrest sent political chills throughout the SNP, which has been thrown into chaos since Sturgeon abruptly resigned in February as Scotland's longest-serving and first female leader. At the time, her departure was seen by many as a clear sign that a new Scottish independence referendum — the SNP's raison d'être — is highly unlikely in the near term. That seems an even longer shot now following the police probe into the party's finances.
Sturgeon was replaced by Humza Yousaf, who after several months in charge has struggled to unite the party. Just hours before his predecessor was picked up by the cops, he offered to cut a deal with the opposition Labour Party if the next British election delivers a hung parliament (presumably in exchange for another vote to leave the UK).
But the problem is that the SNP stands to lose many votes and seats to Labour, which used to dominate Scottish politics until the early 2010s. Upshot: The window of opportunity for a fresh plebiscite that opened up after Brexit is fast closing.
What We’re Watching: Sturgeon's resignation, NATO-Nordic divide, India vs. BBC, Tunisia’s tightening grip
Nicola Sturgeon steps down
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced on Wednesday that she is stepping down. She’s been in the role for over eight years, having taken power after the failed 2014 independence referendum. Speaking from Edinburgh, Sturgeon said she’d been contemplating her future for weeks and knew "in my head and in my heart" it was time to go. A longtime supporter of Scottish independence, Sturgeon was pushing for a new referendum, which was rejected by the UK’s top court late last year. In recent weeks, she and her colleagues had been debating whether the next national election in 2024 should be an effective referendum on independence. Sturgeon will stay in power until a successor is elected — likely contenders include John Swinney, Sturgeon’s deputy first minister, Angus Robertson, the culture and external affairs secretary, and Kate Forbes, the finance secretary.
Turkey divides Finland and Sweden
On Tuesday, NATO and other Western officials publicly acknowledged for the first time that Finland and Sweden might join the transatlantic alliance at different times, a notable public admission that negotiations with Turkey over Sweden’s NATO accession haven’t gone well. Neither Nordic country can become an alliance member without unanimous support from all existing members, and NATO-member Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a beef with Sweden. Erdogan is angry that Sweden’s government has provided asylum for dozens of Kurdish leaders he considers terrorists, and it didn’t help when a right-wing activist burned a Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, an act Sweden’s government treated as an offensive act of free speech that’s protected by law. Erdogan may also see a political opportunity to boost his reelection chances by defying European leaders in general and Sweden in particular. (Turkey’s elections are expected in May or June.) For NATO, Finland’s membership is arguably the more urgent priority. Though Sweden monitors occasional Russian naval intrusions into its territorial waters, it’s Finland that shares an 810-mile land border with Russia. European leaders hope that, if Erdogan wins his election, a deal can be cut in the coming months to allow Sweden to join the club.
India takes aim at BBC
Indian tax officials raided the BBC’s local offices on Tuesday in what they said was a probe into the British broadcaster’s business practices. But the move comes amid a broader government campaign to censor a new BBC documentary about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s role in anti-Muslim riots that killed more than 1,000 people in the state of Gujarat while he was governor in 2002. Modi has always denied stoking – or neglecting – the violence, and India’s Supreme Court has reached a similar conclusion. In the weeks since the doc aired in the UK, Modi’s government has cracked down swiftly in India, blocking it from being viewed online in the country, halting screenings at Indian universities, and forcing both Twitter and YouTube to remove it locally. Modi has often used internet laws to muzzle criticism, and tax officials have searched critical media outlets before. Last year the subcontinent slipped eight points to 150 out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index. How will the UK government respond?
Tunisia crackdown intensifies
Robocop is not messing around now. Tunisian President Kais Saied, whose monotone style earned him that nickname, has unleashed a ferocious crackdown on his critics and opponents in recent days. On Tuesday, sweeping arrests ensnared the leader of Ennahda, an opposition Islamist movement that once held power in the country. Saied, a constitutional lawyer who was elected as an outsider candidate in 2019, has led a massive overhaul of Tunisia’s government, diminishing the power of the legislature and the courts. He says he’s trying to make government more decisive and efficient in the only country that emerged from the Arab Spring with a democracy. His critics say he is plunging the country of 12 million right back into an authoritarian winter. See our full profile of Saied here.
Podcast: "United" Kingdom? Tony Blair on Truss, Charles, Brexit, and division in UK & beyond
Listen: In the span of just 48 hours in early September, the United Kingdom got a new prime minister, Liz Truss, and a new monarch, King Charles III. Both face big challenges in their new roles. For Truss, the Tory leader: a range of issues from inflation to the ongoing fallout of Brexit. For Charles: the relevance of the monarchy itself, now that Britain's longest-serving and much-beloved queen is gone. The United Kingdom also faces staggering inflation and a looming energy crunch. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer talks with a man who occupied 10 Downing Street for a decade - former prime minister Tony Blair - about the road ahead for his country. Blair believes there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next year or two if Truss insists on big tax cuts and big borrowing. He also looks back at the queen's legacy and the future of the monarchy, explains why Brexit will hurt - but probably not fragment - the UK, and argues that we need to return to his comfort zone of the political center to fix today's problems.
Hard Numbers: Germany ditches nuclear, (some) Americans justify anti-government violence, Mali’s election in danger, Scottish witches pardoned
3: Germany has closed three of its remaining six nuclear power plants as it hastens its withdrawal from nuclear in favor of renewable sources of energy. Berlin decided to speed up its shift away from nuclear power after Japan's Fukushima disaster in 2011.
33: More than 33 percent of Americans say that violence against the government can at times be justified, according to a new Washington Post-University of Maryland poll. Many cited government overreach to contain the pandemic to explain their views.
5: Mali’s transitional government, installed after a 2020 coup, has called for next month’s presidential and legislative elections to be delayed by five years. Meanwhile, a group of West African neighbors has threatened Mali with more sanctions if the vote doesn’t go ahead.
3,837: Some four centuries later, the Scottish parliament has moved to pardon thousands of people — mostly women — charged with being witches. Until the Witchcraft Act was repealed by Edinburgh in the mid-1700s, 3,837 were charged under the law in Scotland, more than 2,500 of whom were executed.Is Brexit breaking Britain?
When the UK left the EU at the end of last year, Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised that his country would put its new freedom to good use. A more open and dynamic "Global Britain" would still benefit from solid ties with Europe, he pledged, but aligning its foreign and trade policies more closely with democracies in other regions – the United States, India, South Korea, Australia and others — would lift the UK into a new era of security and prosperity.
But critics warned that Brexit, the most dramatic and abrupt large-scale commercial realignment in modern history, would inflict both short-term and lasting damage to Britain's economy. For decades, most of Britain's exports have gone to Europe. People and money moved freely between the UK and EU too. London's importance for Europe made it a global financial capital. You can't give all that up, the critics cautioned, and expect Britain's ship to sail smoothly on.
There was also the question of boundaries. How to draw a new line between the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, and Northern Ireland, still part of the UK, without disrupting the hard-won peace that ended an era of Irish violence in 1998? Though Johnson got Brexit done, that problem remains unresolved.
Turn on the news now in Britain, and it appears the critics were right, at least about the short-term pain. A shortage of truck drivers, about 20,000 of them foreigners forced home by COVID and then kept out by post-Brexit visa restrictions, have created product shortages at British supermarkets and petrol stations. Prices have reached their highest point in nearly a decade and are predicted to climb higher.
There are also fears of longer-term pain as many UK industries, like its automakers, face higher costs, more paperwork, and longer wait times for parts they've long imported from Europe. The UK services sector — finance professionals, doctors, lawyers, architects etc. — which accounts for about 80 percent of economic output and jobs, is now newly subject to rules created by European regulators that increase costs and delays.
There are also new fights between the UK and EU over the Irish border question and threats flying between London and Paris over fishing rights and lingering controversies over the long-term status of EU citizens still living in the UK.
Some of the economic damage can surely be blamed on COVID, which killed more people in the UK than in any European country and forced extended lockdowns. But the lack of gasoline and other shortages in Northern Ireland, which still has an open border to the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, suggests Brexit, not COVID, is mainly to blame.
Boris Johnson says he's "not worried" about shortages and rising prices. The PM said this week that "Brexit freedoms" will boost Britain in coming years even if the UK is now struggling through an unfortunate but entirely natural period of economic adjustment. He insists the current problems will prove short-lived, and late last month his government announced an offer of three-month visas for foreign truck drivers to help Britons cope with the Christmas season.
But in the end, the truth about Brexit and its effects may not matter, because the perception that Brexit is sinking Britain's economy and prospects – and that Johnson doesn't understand or doesn't care about the impact – will boost the voices of those in Scotland who want to leave the UK and those in Ireland dreaming of Irish reunification. Latest polls suggest that support for independence in Scotland (48.3 percent) is now higher than during the 2014 independence referendum, when Scotland voted 55-45 percent to remain in the UK. The Irish border question created by Brexit has already triggered violence in Northern Ireland.
The bottom line: Brexit won't break Britain's economy – despite the shortages and anxiety it's now provoking. Producers will adjust to post-Brexit realities, and recovery from COVID will create momentum for new growth. But it might yet break up the UK politically if the current economic disruption and public anger across the country continues long enough for Scottish and Irish secessionists to build momentum for exit plans of their own.
Scotland's rocky road ahead
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister, says another independence referendum for Scotland is now a matter of "when not if," and that after leaving the UK, Scotland will launch a bid to rejoin the EU. But there are formidable obstacles ahead.
Getting to a vote will force a complex game of chicken with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. If a majority of Scots then vote for independence — hardly a sure thing – the process of extricating their new country from the UK will make Brexit look easy. Next, come the challenges of EU accession. In other words, Scotland's journey down the rocky road ahead has only just begun.
Obstacle 1 – Getting to a vote. Scotland can't stage a legally binding referendum without approval from the UK parliament, which can't happen without a go-ahead from Boris Johnson. Here's where the political game begins. Johnson knows an independence vote in Scotland could still go either way. Polls suggest support for independence winning by the narrowest of margins.
If Johnson says yes to a referendum, he could become the PM who lost Scotland and broke up the UK. That would likely end his political career. If he says no, he risks driving up support inside Scotland in favor of breaking away — and he knows he can't say no forever. The UK can't simply hold Scotland hostage. At least not indefinitely.
For now, Johnson can say, "Nicola, shouldn't you be focused on COVID and recovery?" To which Sturgeon will reply, "Yes, Boris, we are focused on COVID. But when it's under control, we want to vote." Johnson can throw money at Scotland and offer it more autonomy, but it's unlikely that either will change many Scottish minds on a question as large as independence.
Obstacle 2 – Winning the referendum. In 2014, Scotland voted to remain within the UK by a margin of 55-45. Much has changed since then. Though Scotland voted 62-38 for the UK to remain within the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum, the far larger number of votes in England carried the day, and Brexit pulled Scotland unwillingly from the EU. That's the main reason there's been a shift in Scotland in favor of independence since the first referendum.
But no one knows what might happen during a new campaign. Johnson's government will pull out all the stops to persuade Scots that independence is much riskier than they think, and he'll insist Scotland will be economically stronger inside the UK than outside. If Scotland votes to remain, even by the tiniest of margins, it will be at least a generation before another referendum can be contemplated.
Obstacle 3- Leaving the UK. Extricating Scotland from the UK will be far more costly and risky than the UK leaving Europe. After all, the UK joined the EU in 1973, while Scotland has been part of Great Britain since 1707. The legal and regulatory ties will be extraordinarily hard to untangle. The value of Scotland's exports to the rest of the UK is four times more than to the EU. That would change over time if Scotland joined the EU, but a hard border between England and Scotland would create an immediate shock and lasting damage. At least one recent study found that Scottish exit from the UK would be far more economically damaging than Brexit, even if Scotland eventually rejoins the EU.
Adding to the friction, Johnson's government, mindful of the movement for Irish reunification and independence chatter in Wales, will make everything to do with Scotland's exit as contentious and painful as possible.
Obstacle 4 – Joining the EU. This might be the easiest to surmount. After all, as part of the UK, Scotland was an EU member for nearly half a century. The process of political, economic, legal and regulatory alignment would be far easier than for any previous EU membership candidate.
That said, accession would depend on a unanimous vote of all current members. Spain, under challenge by Catalan separatists, might wield a veto to avoid setting a precedent for breakaway states. EU concessions to ease Spanish fears could smooth Scotland's path, depending on what's happening in Spanish politics at that moment.
Bottom line. Brexit reminded us that secession movements aren't driven by pragmatism. They're fueled by hope, fear, anger, and pride. Those who want an independent Scotland can overcome all these obstacles. But we shouldn't underestimate the complexity of the problems ahead, or how long it will take to solve them.What We're Watching: Israel-Hamas escalation, Scotland's independence drive, Colombian strike continues
Israel strikes Gaza after Hamas rockets: Things escalated very quickly on Monday in Jerusalem. For weeks, violent clashes between Israeli police and Palestinians over tensions surrounding access to the Old City and Al-Aqsa Mosque, as well as an anticipated verdict in the eviction of several Palestinian families from East Jerusalem's Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, spread throughout the city. While Israeli police used heavy force to crack down on Palestinians throwing rocks and launching fireworks, the Hamas militant group in the Gaza Strip used the clashes as a pretext to launch a barrage of rockets into Israel. Hamas usually restricts its reach to southern Israel, but this time it launched dozens of rockets into Jerusalem, causing a mass evacuation of the Knesset, Israel's parliament. Israel responded swiftly Monday by bombing the Gaza Strip, resulting in at least 24 Palestinian deaths, including nine children. Since then, Hamas has fired at least 250 rockets into Israel, including several that landed on houses in southern Israel, while Israeli forces have struck 140 targets in the Gaza Strip. For now, both sides appear to be preparing for a massive escalation, raising fears of an outright war.
Scotland's drive for indyref2: The votes are counted from last week's UK elections, and the pro-independence Scottish National Party will again dominate Scotland's parliament. Though the party fell one seat shy of an absolute majority, the pro-independence Green Party will be happy to add its eight votes in support for a second independence referendum. For now, SNP leader and Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says COVID recovery is job one. But she also says a new independence vote is a matter of "when not if," setting up a showdown with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose approval is needed (via a majority vote in the UK Parliament) for a binding vote. Here's where the politics becomes fascinating. Today, polls suggest Scots are about evenly split on the independence issue. If Johnson tries to block them from voting, he might inadvertently increase support for breakaway. But agreeing to a vote as soon as next spring is a high-stakes roll of the dice. The question looks likely to end up in court.
"The strike continues" in Colombia: After a meeting with Colombian President Ivan Duque on Monday evening, the leaders of the protests that have rocked the country for nearly two weeks now had a simple message: "the national strike will continue." Earlier in the day, Duque made a last minute trip to Cali, Colombia's third largest city, which over the weekend was wracked by violence including a lethal flareup between indigenous protest groups and other armed civilians. While there Duque acknowledged the frustrations of Colombia's young people. Across the country, nearly two dozen people have been killed in clashes with the police since protests began over a botched tax reform last month, while strikes and roadblocks have begun to crimp food supplies in major cities. The tax bill was withdrawn, but protest leaders are now demanding broader concessions, including holding police accountable for abuses, reforms to the health and education systems, and more than 100 other specific demands including an array of measures to help Colombia's poor, protect the environment, and advance the country's stalled peace process (source in Spanish). Meetings between the federal government and various groups — local officials, unions, and activists — will continue throughout the week. But for now, protest leaders have called for another nationwide demonstration on Wednesday.
UK & France fight over fishing rights & why Scottish elections matter
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:
What's going on between the United Kingdom and France over fishing rights?
Yes, good question. Why on earth are they sending the Royal Navy to chase away some French fishermen from the island of Jersey? Fishing rights is very controversial. It was one of the key issues in the Brexit negotiations. Extremely divisive. Fishermen are fairly determined people but sending the Royal Navy to handle the French fishermen was somewhat excessive. I guess it played rather well with the English nationalists for Boris Johnson in the local elections, though.
How important are the Scottish elections for the future of the UK?
They are very important. If there is a solid pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, they will press for a new referendum. Will they get a new referendum? Well, sooner or later, I guess they will, the one way or the other. It might not be imminent. Will they win that referendum? Well, that's much too early to say, much too early to say. But it's going to be a very divisive issue for the United Kingdom. And they have a problem with Northern Ireland as well.