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Putin's next move won't be a Baltic invasion that could unify NATO

Russian President Vladimir Putin needs a way to boost his popularity at home, but is he likely to launch a military campaign targeting the Baltic states, as Russian studies expert Leon Aron argues in a recent Politico op-ed? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analysts Alex Brideau and Zachary Witlin take out the Red Pen to break down why a Baltic invasion is unlikely to be on Putin's agenda.

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US sanctions on Russia don't hit hard; Nicolas Sarkozy found guilty

Ian Bremmer discusses the World In (a little over) 60 Seconds:

The Biden administration announced its first sanctions. How will it affect US-Russia relations?

Not very much. About as bad as they were under the Trump administration, even though Trump personally wanted to be aligned with Putin, the administration was not. This is the same approach on sanctions as we've seen from the European Union, they could go a lot harder. It's not sector level. It's not major state enterprises. It's a few Russian officials that were involved in the chemical program for Russia. And at the end of the day, the Russians are annoyed, but they're not going to hit back. That's that. Okay.

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Alexei Navalny's jail sentence; EU slow on vaccine distribution

Ian Bremmer discusses the World In (more than) 60 Seconds:

First, what's the update with Alexei Navalny?

The, well-liked around the world, very popular among the West, less so in Russia, but still the closest thing you have to real opposition to Putin in the country, just got a three-and-a-half-year jail sentence. Some of that is house arrest, but most of it is actually in prison, and this is a much harder line than we've seen before with suspended sentences and house arrest, and clearly, it's because Navalny has become more of a household name and has caused more of a problem for President Putin at a time when President Putin's approval ratings are lower than they were. They're in their low 60s, which in Russia is not so great for Putin, and the economy is doing worse, and people are angrier about their pensions that aren't worth as much and wages that don't go as far, and Navalny has done everything he can, including flying back to Russia after not dying from the poisoning attempt at the hands of what almost certainly was the Russian Special Service.

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Russia’s cyber attack: an act of espionage or war?

This week's pro-Trump rampage on the Capitol was an attack on the citadel of American democracy. But the United States was already reeling from another kind of assault, an unprecedented cyber attack on US government agencies and major American companies, very likely perpetrated by Russia. Former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson spent years trying to protect the United States against such an attack and he joins GZERO World to take stock of what we know—and what we don't—at this point. He also raises a fundamental question: At what point should we view such a breach as more than just high-tech espionage? When does it constitute an act of war?

Podcast: Russia's Cyber Attack: An Act of Espionage or War? Jeh Johnson's Perspective

Listen: Former US Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson spent years trying to protect the United States against the kind of massive cyber attack that Russia carried out against American businesses and government agencies in the last year. But at what point should we view such a breach as more than a remarkable feat of espionage? When does it constitute an act of war? Johnson joins Ian Bremmer to discuss.

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

Uncertainties of COVID vaccine rollout timing; US-Russia under Biden

Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:

Number one, what will COVID vaccine distribution look like in the United States and elsewhere?

Very politicized, right? I mean, the fact is that there's an effort to have a distribution to medium and low-income countries. $38 billion requested, one fourth funded at this point. It is so obvious we desperately need it. The money is not yet there. It's clear that the emerging markets are going to take a lot longer and the poorest countries are going to take a lot longer to get vaccines. Now, at least that's less of a disaster in some countries with very, very young people because it's all asymptomatic spread, very few people are actually dying or getting sick from coronavirus if you're in, let's say, a Sub-Saharan African country where the average age is 17 or 18.

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