In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the escalating US-Israel war with Iran and its ripple effects on global markets and supply chains.
Most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted, disrupting the flow of oil, gas, fertilizer, and other critical commodities. Some Iranian oil still reaches global markets via pipelines and Red Sea routes, but “the ability of the United States to reopen it is not there anytime soon,” Ian warns.
The economic fallout is broad, contributing to a global supply shock. “Everyone around the world is going to feel much worse,” Ian says, with poorer countries and those in the Global South most affected.
For President Trump, the conflict also presents serious political and strategic challenges. “He really doesn’t have a way to sell this to the American public,” Ian notes, making a quick resolution increasingly unlikely.
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