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Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets U.S President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday September 29, 2025.
The turning point came during the United Nations General Assembly last week in New York. No, I’m not talking about the flurry of European countries that recognized a Palestinian state. Netanyahu was vocal in criticizing these symbolic gestures, but he knows they were just that – symbolic. Palestinian recognition doesn’t change any facts on the ground and carries little political cost for Netanyahu when a majority of Israelis oppose the two-state solution.
The first serious red line was drawn by the United Arab Emirates when it warned that it would pull out of the Abraham Accords if Jerusalem moves ahead with plans to annex the West Bank, killing any remaining hopes for a two-state solution, and with it, President Donald Trump’s signature foreign-policy achievement. Then, Trump himself drew a public red line against West Bank annexation while pushing a Gaza peace plan rejecting mass displacement that he negotiated with Arab and Muslim leaders on the sidelines of UNGA. The real catalyst for Trump's pivot to pressure Netanyahu came three weeks earlier, after Israel struck Qatar in a botched attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders, killing a Qatari security official in the process. The strike didn't just fail – it jeopardized relations with one of America's most important regional partners and taxed Trump's patience with Bibi’s go-it-alone approach.
Netanyahu got the message. Just days after vowing to “finish the job” of fully destroying Hamas before a largely empty UN plenum, Bibi came out of his Monday meeting with Trump saying the president’s peace plan “achieves our war aims.” Trump even got Netanyahu to call the Qatari emir to apologize for the strike. After almost two years of near-total intransigence and free rein, the turnaround was striking.
While there’s no public final text yet, the 20-point framework released by the White House includes: no annexation and no displacement at scale; all hostages (dead and alive) returned within 72 hours, thousands of Palestinian prisoners released, and humanitarian aid flows to resume; phased and gradual Israeli troop withdrawal; Hamas to disarm and cede power; international trusteeship of the Gaza Strip with regional participation on governance, security, and reconstruction; and a loose commitment to keep a path to Palestinian statehood alive, if barely.
This isn’t exactly what Arab leaders had agreed to last week. During his White House meeting with Trump, Netanyahu successfully reshaped the contours of the plan – which had been deliberately crafted in his absence – to better align with his political needs. Regional governments bristled at the changes, but they appear willing to back the plan anyway. Trump sweetened the deal with an unprecedented NATO-style security guarantee for Qatar, the first such commitment to an Arab state (though surely not the last).
There’s something in the framework for all sides to like and dislike – the mark of a good compromise. Palestinians and their regional backers get the promise of no annexation and no displacement, plus the hope – however faint – of future statehood. Netanyahu gets all the hostages back, Hamas disarmed and out of power, a security buffer, and Arab partners shouldering the bulk of Gaza's security and reconstruction. The Palestinian Authority gets a role down the line but would be out of the picture for the foreseeable future, while the statehood language is vague enough to give Netanyahu plausible deniability at home.
Make no mistake, accepting a ceasefire is a political gamble for Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister may struggle to keep his coalition together after agreeing to terms that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and other hard-right allies have ruled unacceptable. But that’s not necessarily a deal-breaker – or a career-ender for Bibi. If his far-right partners bolt, he could potentially fall back on opposition leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, who’ve publicly backed the proposal and have hinted they may give Bibi a lifeline, to stay in power and out of jail. Plus, what Israelis want is to bring the hostages home and keep the troops out of harm’s way, so a ceasefire that delivers those outcomes is politically sellable. Netanyahu could run on the ceasefire-and-hostage deal next fall – or he could call early elections to bank the fresh gains from his Iran "win" while pushing the fiscal pain of years of war into the next term.
In fact, the riskier long-term play for Netanyahu may be to reject peace and stay the present course. To be sure, you shouldn’t bet on Trump suddenly being willing to use real pressure (economic or military) against Netanyahu to actually enforce his red lines. More likely, the US president would huff in frustration at not being able to claim a Nobel Peace Prize while trying to wash his hands of the issue. But if Palestinians are removed from Gaza in large numbers or if the West Bank is annexed, the costs will become real for Israel – no matter what Trump does or doesn’t do. More Americans will keep turning on the Jewish state and voting in leaders responsive to their preferences. The Abraham Accords will unravel. And though Europeans wouldn’t muster EU-wide sanctions (unanimity is too high a bar), the pain from bilateral visa restrictions, investment curbs, and cultural boycotts will add up.
Netanyahu won’t pay a political price for prolonging the suffering in Gaza or rejecting Palestinian statehood. He’d most certainly pay one for making Israelis feel visibly isolated internationally. It may sound geopolitically inconsequential, but being barred from Dubai, Eurovision, or FIFA would resonate more powerfully with Netanyahu’s voters than a thousand UN resolutions. The prospect of Israel becoming apartheid South Africa is real and scary to most Israelis. That’s where the lever is now.
Hamas gets a vote, too, and it remains to be seen how it’ll respond to the peace proposal. The group has been severely degraded over the past two years, but it’s still the dominant military and political power in Gaza and maintains the ability to inflict damage on Israeli troops. It’s under pressure from multiple directions – Arab and Muslim stakeholders, especially its regional backers Qatar and Turkey, are pushing it to accept the ceasefire on offer for the sake of an immediate end to the bloodshed, while Trump has warned that he'll give the Israelis carte blanche to continue their military campaign if Hamas doesn't agree by Thursday. An outright refusal seems unlikely, but it's equally hard to imagine the group will surrender its weapons and give up what leverage it has left – the remaining hostages – without trying to at least negotiate less suicidal terms.
Even if both sides get to a “yes” in principle, peace would be far from guaranteed. The plan in its present form is too vague to be operationalized, and it could take several months of negotiation to hammer out all the details. Implementation would depend on Hamas and Netanyahu swallowing hard in ways they’ve long resisted. Every stage would be a tripwire, fraught with risks and opportunities for both sides to stall while blaming the other for failure.
But if a deal does go through and sticks, it would set the region on a radically better path than the one it’s currently on. Trump will have earned credit for it – something this author would be very happy to give him.
First there was the Russian drone in Poland. Then Romania. Then Russian jets flew into Estonian airspace, while some unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) shut down Denmark’s airports.
In recent weeks, Russian aircraft have been illegally violating European airspace with greater frequency and boldness.
What are the Europeans going to do about it? One possible answer emerged last week, when the European Commission announced it would explore building a so-called “drone wall,” an air defense system involving radars, sensors, and missiles that aims to detect and destroy drones that pass through Europe’s eastern borders.
One former NATO leader suggested the wall could be operational within a year.
The idea for a drone wall, though, will test Europe’s – and, more broadly, NATO’s – ability to agree on the system’s costs, deployment, and even its purpose. The subject will be one of the hottest items on the agenda as European Union leaders meet in Copenhagen this week to discuss the continent’s collective defense.
Eurasia Group’s Europe Director Jan Techau said there are a few different paths that Europe could take. It could build a drone wall along NATO’s eastern flank that would involve shooting down UAVs, create a system that merely jams Russian drones to make them inoperable, or simply boost drone defenses as part of a broader effort to update Europe’s air defenses across the continent.
“The big, decisive question is,” said Techau, “when the EC’s defense chief Andrius Kubilius brings the defense ministers together in Brussels for an EU defense ministers meeting, how much support will [the drone wall] get?”
Some, such as German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, are already pouring cold water on the idea, arguing this week that it would take at least three or four years to build such a defense mechanism.
“Drone defense, of course,” he said, “but not by a drone wall.”
There are also questions over the rules of engagement for any new anti-drone defenses. If a Russian UAV enters NATO airspace, it’s “fair game” for a NATO country to shoot it down, per Techau – Poland did just that last month. But some say the system should aim beyond that.
At Eurasia Group’s Europe Summit last month, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder suggested shooting down Russian drones before they enter NATO territory, creating dicey dilemmas.
“What if Europeans shot down Russian drones in Ukrainian airspace? Would that make them a party in the war?” Techau questioned. “So far, most Europeans fear that the answer is yes. So they won’t do it. Which is why Daalder’s suggestion sounds unrealistic to me.”
Still, the spate of recent drone incursions in Eastern Europe – as well as the increasing role of UAVs in modern warfare – has created urgency around the need for more effective defenses against unmanned aircraft.
“Something will happen. There will be more drone defense. There’s a greater sense of urgency,” said Techau. “Now the big question is whether it can be a pan-European effort, or whether it will be individual national efforts.”
Hard Numbers: Earthquake rocks the Philippines, UN expands Haiti mission, Moscow cuts military budget, & More
A drone view of rescue workers conducting a rescue operation at a collapsed building in the aftermath of a 6.9-magnitude earthquake in Bogo, Cebu, Philippines, on October 1, 2025.
69: A 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck off Cebu, Philippines, late Tuesday night, killing at least 69 and injuring hundreds. The quake caused landslides, building collapses, and power outages in a region still recovering from recent storms.
5,500: The UN has approved expanding its Haiti security mission into a 5,500-strong force to combat rampant gang violence. Backed by the US and Panama, the decision will add to the current 1,000 officers, mostly from Kenya, already deployed to support Haitian police.
$156 billion: Russia’s military budget next year is set to be $156 billion, down from the $163 billion this year, marking the first drop since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Still, the military budget remains high – it’s nearly four times larger than in 2021. To help fund the war effort, the government is also set to increase the value-added tax from 20% to 22%.
15: South African opposition leader Julius Malema – who heads the far-left, black nationalist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – was found guilty of publicly discharging a firearm, an offense that carries a maximum sentence of 15 years. Malema fired 14 to 15 rounds in front of 20,000 supporters during an EFF celebration in the Eastern Cape in 2018.
What We’re Watching: Caribbean islands come together, “Gen Z” protests hit Morocco, Afghanistan cut off from the world
Lifeguards on the beach at the Boatyard Beach Club in Bridgetown, Barbados, ensure safety on the turquoise blue sea, on January 7, 2025.
Four Caribbean countries go border-free
The Caribbean island nations of Barbados, Belize, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines have launched an EU-style free movement deal, letting citizens live and work across borders without permits. The move aims to curb the Caribbean’s longstanding brain drain of skilled workers who leave for North America and Europe. Critics worry it may mean tougher job competition in some of the countries, but supporters say that if the rollout goes smoothly more Caribbean countries could join, a big step toward binding the region’s economies and cultures more tightly together.
Yet another “Gen Z” protest…
First it was Indonesia, then Nepal, then came Timor-Leste, then it was Peru, and then Madagascar. Now, “Gen Z” protesters are going after the government in Morocco. Hundreds took to the streets of the normally stable North African nation of 37-million people to call for better social services and an end to corruption. They also denounced the amount of money the government has spent on building new soccer stadiums – Morocco is set to co-host the World Cup in 2030. Although GenZ 212, the group that organized the protests, urged demonstrators to stay peaceful, some torched cars and buildings and clashed with police.
Afghanistan goes dark
Afghanistan is entering its third day of a nationwide communications blackout after the Taliban government reportedly slashed more than 99% of the country’s internet and phone services on Monday, halting air travel, business, banking, and much of daily life. Officials cited morality concerns, but rights groups say the move is aimed at isolating Afghans and tightening control. The blackout is particularly difficult for Afghan women: internet access had allowed them to maintain access to the outside world after the Taliban curtailed their freedoms and career opportunities following their 2021 takeover.
What We’re Watching: Hamas ponders Gaza proposal, US government shutdown is nigh, “Gen Z” revolt in Madagascar, US-Africa trade deal to expire
Bedouin women walk on a road in the Nuseirat refugee camp area in the Gaza Strip on September 29, 2025.
All eyes on Hamas after Trump and Netanyahu announce Gaza deal
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday announced a proposal to end the war in Gaza. Under the plan, Israel would withdraw from Gaza in phases, and a group of Arab and Muslim-majority nations would oversee a Palestinian administration of the strip. Hamas would return all the remaining hostages and its fighters would get amnesty if they disarm. There was only a vague reference to Palestinian statehood. Arab and European leaders lauded the proposal but Netanyahu’s far right coalition partners have slammed it. The key question: will Hamas accept? The militant group said it would look at the deal in “good faith,” but has also suggested the deal is too favorable for Israel. The clock is ticking: Trump gave Hamas until Thursday to accept, warning that otherwise he would give Netanyahu “full backing” to continue his attempt, so far unsuccessful, to eliminate Hamas.
This US government shutdown could be different
With yet another federal government shutdown looming at midnight tonight, talks between congressional Democrats, Republicans, and the White House have stalled. Republicans want a short-term funding bill before negotiating one for the full fiscal year, while Democrats want to reinstate certain health care subsidies. Since any funding bill requires 60 votes in the Senate, the Democrats still have leverage even though the GOP has 53 seats. Under a shutdown, “non-essential” federal workers (think park rangers and social security administrators) are suspended until a deal is reached. But this time could be different: Trump is threatening to use any shutdown as an excuse to permanently fire thousands of federal employees. Who will blink first?
Madagascar’s Gen Z protests force government shake-up
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina says he’ll dissolve his government after days of “Gen Z” protests over chronic water and power outages. The demonstrations, led mostly by young people under the slogan “We want to live, not survive,” have spread to eight cities in the African island nation, and turned deadly. The UN says at least 22 people have been killed and 100 injured in clashes with security forces, though Madagascar’s government disputes those numbers. The protests mark the biggest test of Rajoelina’s rule since winning reelection in 2023. He apologized for government failures and promised a new cabinet within days.
Major US-Africa deal expires today
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a 25-year old trade deal that has given African exporters preferential access to the US market, is set to expire today, leaving billions of dollars of trade and hundreds of thousands of jobs across the continent in limbo. Read Zac Weisz’s recent explainer on the economic (and geopolitical!) implications here.
Hard Numbers: Indonesian school collapses, Americans sour on Israel, YouTube pays Trump, Brothers rock in Italian election
Search and rescue officers search for victims amidst the rubble of a crumbled building after a hall collapsed while students were praying at the Al-Khoziny Islamic boarding school in Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, on September 29, 2025.
3: A school in East Java, Indonesia, collapsed on Monday, killing three people and injuring many more. At least 38 others – many of them teenage boys – remain trapped. The rescue mission was halted on Tuesday over concerns that the building would collapse further. This disaster comes atop a growing list of challenges that President Prabowo Subianto now faces.
35%: A new poll shows 35% of Americans sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israel (34%). It’s the first time in the history of the New York Times/Siena poll, which dates back to 1998, that this has happened. Right after the October 7th, 2023, attacks, support for Israel was at 47%, against just 20% for Palestinians. The new results come after two years of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which some international organizations and watchdogs have said meets the criteria for war crimes, including genocide.
$24.5 million: YouTube agreed to pay $24.5 million to US President Donald Trump and others on Monday in order to settle a lawsuit over the platform’s decision to suspend them from the site in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. The vast majority of the settlement payout – $22 million – will go to Trump, who directed the money to the Trust for the National Mall and to the construction of a new White House ballroom. Trump’s lawyers had argued that the suspension was an act of censorship.
52.5%: In a big win for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, her rightwing Brothers of Italy party was re-elected to run the region of Marche, beating the opposition by nearly ten points with 52.5% of the vote. The ballot in Marche, a light manufacturing industry northeast of Rome which has historically leaned left, is seen as a bellwether for national elections due in 2027.September 28, 2025, Tehran, Iran: Iranian lawmakers participate in an open session of parliament. Iran has recalled its envoys to Britain, France, and Germany for consultations after the three countries.
The European Union confirmed on Monday that it has reinstated sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, following the United Nations’ decision over the weekend to reimpose its own penalties.
The move piles fresh punishment onto an economy already battered by a collapsing currency, soaring inflation and deficits, and chronic shortages of water and energy. Iran is also still reeling from the 12-day war in June, which included US airstrikes on its three main nuclear sites and a wave of Israeli attacks on sensitive government targets.
What’s in these sanctions? They reinstate bans on arms imports and on the transfer of dual-use technologies that could support a nuclear program. The measures also freeze the assets of individuals linked to Iran’s missile and nuclear efforts, impose travel bans on sanctioned officials, and authorize inspections of Iranian cargo, including oil shipments. All of this comes atop extensive financial sanctions that the US has imposed since 2018.
Why are they called “snapback” sanctions? They were previously lifted, as part of a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, the US, and Europe, on the condition that Iran continue to allow international inspection of its nuclear programs to ensure that they are for peaceful use. The US exited that deal in 2018, reimposing sanctions, but European partners continued some of its terms. After the war with Israel, Iran suspended access to inspectors, opening the way for these sanctions to automatically “snap back” into place.
Economic impact. The effects are already rippling out over Iran’s currency markets. The rial is now trading at more than a million per US dollar and fell another 4% on the black market on Saturday. That slide is eroding the purchasing power of the middle class and squeezing quality of life. Eurasia Group Iran expert Greg Brew described the sanctions’ practical impact as “largely symbolic and psychological,” warning that they will deepen public disillusionment by reducing prospects for diplomacy and long-promised sanctions relief.
“The impact of the last few years of sanctions has been to increase inequality in Iran,” says Brew. “More of the wealth and more of the power is moving upward, while the middle class has been squeezed and shrunk.”
Could that generate a fresh wave of protests? Possibly, as Iran has seen a number of economic-driven protests in recent years. But the political impact would likely be limited, in Brew’s view. "Iran has no organized political opposition,” he says, “There's really no locus around which the opposition can mobilize and the internal repressive apparatus is still as large and as powerful as it has always been, if not more."
Nuclear diplomacy stalled. The purpose of the sanctions is to pressure Iran to return to meeting its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires Tehran to forswear nuclear weapons development and accept international inspections.
"What we're looking at in the short term is Iran remaining within the NPT in name only," says Brew. Since the 12-day War, Iran has been skirting the treaty’s spirit by denying inspectors access to key facilities and refusing to clarify the status of its enriched uranium. The regime has made the decision to weather more sanctions rather than allow international inspections, underscoring the question: what, exactly, is going on at Iran’s nuclear facilities now?