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Hard Numbers: Europe to target small packages, US hits Chinese oil refiners, free speech win in UK, Taliban blames Pakistan for Kabul explosion
An employee prepares to cut a fabric next to Shein packaging at the Midnight Charm Garment lingerie factory in Guanyun county of Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China November 25, 2024.
5: As part of its efforts to stop the Chinese purchase of Iranian oil, the Trump Administration has now sanctioned five refineries in Shandong province, a major hub for processing crude imported from the Middle East. The latest round of US sanctions came on Thursday, after Beijing slapped fresh restrictions on the export of critical minerals.
240: In a victory for free speech advocates, a UK court overturned the conviction of a man who was found guilty of a public order offense for burning a Koran and cursing Islam outside the Turkish consulate in London earlier this year. The man had been fined 240 pounds (about $325).
2: The Taliban government of Afghanistan has blamed Pakistan for two explosions in the country late Thursday night, one in the eastern province of Paktika and another in the capital, Kabul. The timing was noteworthy: on Friday, the Taliban announced expanded relations with India, Pakistan’s biggest nemesis.
What We’re Watching: Gaza ceasefire begins, Venezuela’s opposition wins Nobel, Peru’s president ousted
Palestinian children look at rubble following Israeli forces' withdrawal from the area, after Israel and Hamas agreed on the Gaza ceasefire, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, October 10, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire deal takes effect
Israel approved the Gaza ceasefire deal on Friday morning, bringing the ceasefire officially into effect. The Israeli military must withdraw its forces to an agreed perimeter inside Gaza within 24 hours, and Hamas has 72 hours to return the hostages. Trump is on his way to the region this weekend, after revealing that a major factor for why Hamas agreed to the deal was because he personally guaranteed that the US would prevent Israel from abandoning the agreement and resuming war – as it did in March when it unilaterally broke a ceasefire. Part of that guarantee includes a US-led military task force to oversee the ceasefire, alongside Trump’s word on the line.
Venezuela’s opposition leader wins Nobel Peace Prize
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has won the Nobel Peace Prize for her work to promote democracy and fight against Nicolas Maduro’s dictatorship. Machado has created strong relationships with the Trump administration in support of her cause, and the recognition bolsters her moral authority as the US intensifies regime-change efforts against Maduro. See Riley Callanan’s interview with Machado earlier this year here, or watch her appearance on GZERO World here.
Peru’s impeachment tradition continues
Peru’s congress removed President Dina Boluarte on Friday. Boluarte, who came to power after her predecessor was sacked in 2022, was removed amid a spiraling crime wave, anger over her crackdowns on protestors, and allegations of corruption. One of the least popular leaders in the world, with an approval rating below 4%, she is the third Peruvian president impeached in just five years. Congress chief José Jeri has taken over as interim leader, vowing a “war on crime.” He must hold scheduled elections next spring.
We’re living in a time of record-high conflict, a level of violence not seen since World War II. The past four years have been marred by deadly battles in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and beyond, with approximately 14% of the planet’s population now impacted by war.
While the more than 120 million people displaced by conflict have acute needs of safety, shelter, food, and education, there are needs unseen that too frequently go untreated.
A mental health crisis
In an unprecedented assessment this summer, UNICEF reported that 100% of children in Gaza are in need of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS.) While the pending peace deal could put an end to the physical violence, the road to true wellness will be long and complicated for all those who have survived.
Globally, there are an estimated 66 million people in humanitarian crises living with mental health conditions. And of the less than 0.029% of global GDP that goes to humanitarian assistance, only 2% of that amount goes to mental health services.
If untreated, the impacts of this trauma can contribute to higher rates of depression and anxiety, learning loss and disrupted education, and even self harm. Suicide is the top cause of death globally for people ages 15-29.
A Greentree plan grows
Last November, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed urged a gathering of more than 50 mental health experts to focus on this issue.
“We need to put the head back on the body” in our approach to humanitarian aid, DSG Mohammed told us in her closing remarks. Treating the needs of the body is only one part of the equation—caring for the mind is a large part of keeping a person well.
Now, a year after that event, the United Nations has launched the Greentree Acceleration Plan, named for the venue where the retreat was convened. With $13.2 million in backing from the Wellcome Trust, the UN is embarking on two pilot programs, one in Chad where 40% of the population requires aid, and the other in Lebanon.
The goal is to find scalable solutions to bring better mental health care to more countries, communities, and conflict zones around the world.
A day for awareness
Today, on World Mental Health day, I wanted to share with you a conversation I recently had with actress Carey Mulligan and activist Jin Dawood on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, during an event where the Greentree Acceleration Plan was announced.
Mulligan is an ambassador for War Child, a UK-based charity that provides mental health care, education, and support to kids in conflict zones worldwide. Dawood, herself a former refugee and survivor of civil war in Syria, founded Peace Therapist to provide digital MHPSS services to children in Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, and English.
Both shared personal stories of children in crisis they’ve met through their work, and the importance of raising awareness for mental health support long after a war has ended.
Over dozens of trips to troubled regions, Mulligan has seen first-hand the impact that MHPSS can have on a child’s life. “Part of that is giving children the right to a childhood,” she said. “But also, you cannot expect a country to rebuild itself if children are illiterate and traumatized.”
As Dawood explained, “That's why it's so important for people to be able to have therapy, to be able to rebuild themselves from inside and start the inner peace, and also contribute to building peace in the world.”
Watch my full conversation with Carey Mulligan and Jin Dawood above..
Israel's Netanyahu meets Ukrainian President Zelensky in Jerusalem
The coming days, weeks, and months will be fraught with uncertainty and breath-holding in the Middle East. Even if initial commitments are met to release hostages and for Israel to pull back troops from Gaza, there are no guarantees of a reconcilable peace. But it appears more possible than at any point over the past twenty-four months that the devastating chapter of October 7th and its aftermath may soon be over.
Europe take heed
Across Europe, the time for introspection is only beginning. Models of the US administration’s foreign policy objectives and strategy (and of Trump) must be updated in the wake of recent developments. What will potential success in the Middle East mean for the war in Ukraine? European capitals would do well to quickly undertake scenario and contingency planning.
There are two main possibilities. In the first, enlivened by progress in the Middle East, the US administration circles back again to European stakeholders. Trump campaigned in 2024 on ending the war in Ukraine on “Day 1.” Just days ahead of taking office for a second time, the incoming president extended the timeline to the first six months, perhaps in recognition of the task ahead. In his inaugural address Trump suggested: “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be: a peacemaker and a unifier.” An early misfiring with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in February over a rare earths agreement was smoothed over. After Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, there was momentum, if not optimism, for continued communication. A potential follow-up trilateral session between Trump, Putin and Zelensky was considered for the fall. Always a shrewd observer of the man, Zelensky reportedly pledged to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace prize should he broker a ceasefire with Russia.
Despite these headline making developments, a growing uneasiness in Europe has slowly taken root. Indicators of the US direction of travel vis-à-vis Ukraine, if read correctly, appear to be pointing in a discouraging direction. During the United Nations General Assembly last month, the president posted on Truth Social that after getting to know the economic and military situation, Ukraine could win the war against Russia and regain all of its territory. The sentiment had an immediate buoying effect for a European audience that had long (privately) suspected that territorial losses as part of any peace settlement was inevitable. The message of possible victory, however, was quickly followed with a backhanded assertion that it would be through the European Union, Europe, and NATO that Ukraine would regain territorial integrity.
And herein lies the second possibility ahead: that the US administration no longer needs a victory in Ukraine. That the US administration accepts the limits of personal diplomacy. That no trilateral summit ever materializes. That with a quick resolution beyond reach, the Trump administration looks to quietly back out and close the door on its peace negotiation efforts. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov this week, “Anchorage's powerful momentum in favor of agreements has been largely exhausted.”
Narrowing interest for Ukraine
None of this is to say that the US is likely to curtail all support and overtures for Ukraine. After multiple incursions over NATO airspace by Russian drones in recent weeks, a deal for Ukraine to purchase a limited set of US Tomahawk missiles appears increasingly likely. According to polling, Americans (including Trump’s Republican base) continue to support Ukraine and see the US as having a responsibility towards helping the country. Yet, there has also been a large decline in belief that Russia’s invasion poses a major threat to US interests. Trump is asking himself the same question. How much does Ukraine mean to the US? How much would peace in Ukraine benefit the US, and perhaps more pointedly, benefit the president?
An end to the conflict in Israel raises the specter of Saudi-Israel normalization, wider regional integration, greater market access for the US in the region and in Trump’s loftiest dreams both a Nobel Peace Prize and Gaza-a-Lago. The end of war in Ukraine looks to Trump like good business for Europe, even existential for Europe, but increasingly less so for the US. Against these shifting dynamics there is a principle coming into focus: US interests are narrowing. The administration is willing to continue to provide financial and capability resources to Ukraine, but these will not be paid for by the US.
The Trump backstop may not be coming for Europe.
In these photos, emergency units carry out rescue work after a Russian attack in Ternopil and Prikarpattia oblasts on December 13, 2024. A large-scale Russian missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure left half of the consumers in the Ternopil region without electricity, the Ternopil Regional State Administration reported.
8: Cameroon’s 92-year-old president Paul Biya has already done it again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again – and this Sunday he will seek re-election yet again, for his 8th term in office. His health is so poor that last year he was briefly believed to be dead, and he has only appeared in one campaign event, but he’ll likely win, having disqualified his most prominent challenger.
2: EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen comfortably survived two separate no-confidence votes in the European Parliament on Thursday. The measures were brought to the floor by groups from the left and from the right. Both accused von der Leyen of rolling over in trade talks with the US, and for pursuing a deal with the South American Mercosur bloc that could hurt Europe’s farmers.
6 billion: The rules-based order really is falling apart, everywhere. Astronomers have identified a “young rogue planet” hundreds of light years from Earth that is currently “gobbling up” its surroundings at a rate of 6 billion tons per second. No word on whether the UN Security Council will issue a statement urging planet “Cha 1107-7626” to stop this unprovoked expansion, but scientists are excited about the insights that it provides on early planet formation.
What We’re Watching: China increases its trade leverage, Modi and Starmer meet, US undercuts Canada’s auto industry
U.S. President Donald Trump takes part in a welcoming ceremony with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017.
China cracks down on critical minerals
China has implemented broad new restrictions on exports of rare earth and other critical minerals vital for semiconductors, the auto industry, and military technology, of which it controls 70% of the global supply. The restrictions come after China cut back its purchases of US soybeans, as Beijing seeks to strengthen its negotiating position ahead of trade talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump later this month.
Modi and Starmer cut defense deals in New Delhi
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a posse of 100 business leaders took a trip to India on Monday, where he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled a plan to double their current $56 billion of trade by 2030. During the visit, they announced new defense deals worth over $799 million, marking a push to reduce India’s reliance on Russian arms, even as the two sides differ over Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Starmer confirmed he discussed India’s purchases of Russian oil with Modi but respects India’s strategic independence and sees defense cooperation as key to strengthening their partnership.
Carney and Trump meet to talk tariffs
Washington and Toronto buzzed this week with talk of the Canada-US relationship. On Tuesday Prime Minister Mark Carney joined President Donald Trump in the Oval Office for a warm but inconclusive meeting. There were no breakthroughs on tariffs, just promises to “work quickly” on steel, aluminum, and energy. Trump did reportedly appreciate Carney’s proposal to revive the long-dead Keystone XL pipeline, which Trump had proposed in February.
The next day in Toronto, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told attendees at the Eurasia Group and BMO US-Canada Summit that bilateral tariff deals were possible but that the integration of the two countries’ auto industries was “over.” This provoked angry reaction from Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who threatened to retaliate by cutting off energy and critical-mineral exports to the US.
French President Emmanuel Macron as he poses for a picture as he welcomes Crown Prince and Princess of the Kingdom of Jordan for a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on October 8, 2025.
France is in crisis – again. On Monday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after just 27 days in office, making him the shortest-serving premier in the history of the Fifth Republic and the fourth to fall in 13 months. His government collapsed before it was even sworn in, unable to survive the toxic arithmetic of a deadlocked National Assembly that has made France virtually ungovernable.
The problem traces back to President Emmanuel Macron's catastrophic decision to call snap elections last year. That gamble, designed to head off the surging far right, instead entrenched a three-way parliamentary deadlock between the left, the center-right, and Marine Le Pen's National Rally. No bloc commands anywhere near the 289 seats needed for a majority. Worse, Macron’s far-right archrival emerged with just enough seats to topple any government by joining forces with the left on no-confidence votes. The Fifth Republic was designed to concentrate power in the presidency and avoid chronic instability, but the system depends on either a clear presidential majority or a clear opposition willing to govern in cohabitation. Any government emerging from such a deeply splintered National Assembly was destined to be fragile.
The immediate trigger for Lecornu’s resignation was the 2026 budget. France's deficit hit 5.8% of GDP last year, the highest since World War II, while debt climbed to 113% of GDP. Lecornu was hired to do what his predecessors couldn’t: form a government that could bring the deficit down and tackle France’s ballooning debt before the end of the year – politically painful cuts that alienated both the center-left Socialists (who demanded the rollback of Macron's pension reform) and the center-right (which balked at tax increases). When he unveiled his cabinet Sunday night, it looked less like the “rupture” with the past he had promised than a reshuffling of the old guard, complete with the return of Bruno Le Maire, the veteran finance minister widely blamed for adding €1 trillion to France's debt in his seven-year tenure. The backlash was swift. Even Lecornu's center-right Républicains minority coalition partners threatened to walk. He resigned before parliament could vote him out.
In an unprecedented last-ditch move to stem the crisis, Macron accepted Lecornu's resignation but asked him to spend two more days searching for a budget compromise that could provide "action and stability" for a new government. If Lecornu failed, Macron said he would "take all his responsibilities" – universally interpreted as a threat to dissolve parliament and call snap elections for November. Both his fractious center-right coalition partners and the Socialist swing group risk losing seats if elections are held soon.
That threat might have worked. By Wednesday, Lecornu's negotiations had found “possibilities for compromise,” with all parties except the far right and hard left agreeing on the urgency of passing a deficit-cutting budget by year-end, allowing Macron to appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours. The emerging possibility: a Socialist-led, moderate-left minority government. A budget deal would come at a steep price – and wouldn't be guaranteed. Macron would likely have to swallow the suspension of his flagship 2023 pension reform – a humiliating reversal that would increase France's deficit by €3 billion in 2027, with larger longer-term implications – and accept new wealth and business taxes reversing reforms he spent eight years enacting.
Even with the passive backing of Macron’s centrist coalition, such a government would be very fragile, holding 29 seats short of a majority. But that support is far from guaranteed: one centrist leader, ex-Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, said his 29 deputies would never support suspending pension reform. The Socialists have ruled out using emergency constitutional powers to pass a budget, meaning any legislation would require negotiating with hostile blocs. Macron could make massive concessions and appoint yet another prime minister – his fourth in a year – yet he could still end up with a government that collapses within weeks.
Alternatively, Macron could dissolve parliament and call the snap elections he threatened. That would relieve the short-term pressure for Macron to resign – something Macron has firmly ruled out but even some of his former allies, including Philippe, are now calling for. But it wouldn’t solve the underlying problem. Polls suggest Macron’s centrist bloc would be crushed and the National Rally would emerge strengthened but probably fall short of a majority, resulting in another hung parliament – more deadlock, more instability, more market anxiety.
Another hung parliament would make a budget agreement nigh impossible. Macron would appoint a technocrat or elder statesman as prime minister, who’d most likely be toppled within weeks. The president could, in theory, keep appointing new premiers indefinitely – but after losing four in a year and with approval at just 17%, that path would deepen the sense he's ignoring the will of parliament and the people. Macron could also keep a censured prime minister as caretaker for up to a year and roll over the 2025 budget into 2026 using emergency legislation. That would avoid a US-style shutdown but push the deficit toward 6%, spook bond markets further, and make France look even more rudderless. French borrowing costs have already spiked to near-Italian levels; the spread over German Bunds hit 0.88 percentage points on Monday, close to its widest since 2012. Markets are losing patience in Europe’s second-largest economy.
If the National Rally managed to eke out a narrow majority, it’d be able to push through a 2026 budget – but it would struggle to deliver fiscal credibility. A draft budget is supposed to go to parliament by next Wednesday. An election would delay the process by up to six weeks. Moreover, while Le Pen favors more social spending, her de facto number two and likely prime minister candidate, Jordan Bardella, favors tax cuts. Neither aligns with the deficit-cutting that markets, rating agencies, and the EU are demanding.
A National Rally government would also force an unprecedentedly adversarial “cohabitation” between Macron and a far-right prime minister. France has seen cohabitation between presidents and prime ministers from different political camps before, but never between figures so ideologically opposed. Under the Fifth Republic constitution, the president shapes foreign and defense policy, but major initiatives require parliamentary ratification. A hostile National Rally majority could actively undermine not just French fiscal discipline but also EU cohesion and support for Ukraine.
The bottom line is that a snap legislative election wouldn’t fix France’s governability issues – it would just reset the deadlock or hand power to the far right. Only a presidential election can break the logjam in a constitutional system not built to handle this kind of fragmentation. That means either 18 more months of paralysis, market jitters, and mounting public frustration to fuel the populist fire, or a reckoning that brings the far right closer to the Élysée Palace than ever.
Even if Macron limps through the next 18 months, the damage is done. Business investment has declined for two years straight. Household savings have spiked near pandemic levels as consumers brace for instability. Economists estimate the turmoil has already cost 0.5 percentage points of GDP. The longer the paralysis drags on, the worse this gets – and the more attractive the far right looks as the only force capable of breaking the logjam.
The cruel irony is that Macron launched his career in 2017 with a singular mission: save France from the far right by building a durable center that could unite moderates from left and right. He won the presidency twice by framing the stakes as existential – vote for me or watch democracy crumble. But his technocratic centrism and top-down reforms bred resentment, not compromise. His decision to ram through pension reform without a vote, then dissolve parliament in a desperate bid to reassert control, destroyed what remained of his base, entrenched deadlock, and elevated Le Pen to kingmaker.
Whether Le Pen’s appeal of her conviction succeeds or she is barred from office and replaced by Bardella, the far right is positioned to capitalize on the wreckage of Macron’s centrist project. The extremes he vowed to defeat are now stronger than ever. The only question now is whether France reaches that reckoning in the next few months – or in a year and a half.