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The coming days, weeks, and months will be fraught with uncertainty and breath-holding in the Middle East. Even if initial commitments are met to release hostages and for Israel to pull back troops from Gaza, there are no guarantees of a reconcilable peace. But it appears more possible than at any point over the past twenty-four months that the devastating chapter of October 7th and its aftermath may soon be over.
Europe take heed
Across Europe, the time for introspection is only beginning. Models of the US administration’s foreign policy objectives and strategy (and of Trump) must be updated in the wake of recent developments. What will potential success in the Middle East mean for the war in Ukraine? European capitals would do well to quickly undertake scenario and contingency planning.
There are two main possibilities. In the first, enlivened by progress in the Middle East, the US administration circles back again to European stakeholders. Trump campaigned in 2024 on ending the war in Ukraine on “Day 1.” Just days ahead of taking office for a second time, the incoming president extended the timeline to the first six months, perhaps in recognition of the task ahead. In his inaugural address Trump suggested: “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be: a peacemaker and a unifier.” An early misfiring with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in February over a rare earths agreement was smoothed over. After Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, there was momentum, if not optimism, for continued communication. A potential follow-up trilateral session between Trump, Putin and Zelensky was considered for the fall. Always a shrewd observer of the man, Zelensky reportedly pledged to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace prize should he broker a ceasefire with Russia.
Despite these headline making developments, a growing uneasiness in Europe has slowly taken root. Indicators of the US direction of travel vis-à-vis Ukraine, if read correctly, appear to be pointing in a discouraging direction. During the United Nations General Assembly last month, the president posted on Truth Social that after getting to know the economic and military situation, Ukraine could win the war against Russia and regain all of its territory. The sentiment had an immediate buoying effect for a European audience that had long (privately) suspected that territorial losses as part of any peace settlement was inevitable. The message of possible victory, however, was quickly followed with a backhanded assertion that it would be through the European Union, Europe, and NATO that Ukraine would regain territorial integrity.
And herein lies the second possibility ahead: that the US administration no longer needs a victory in Ukraine. That the US administration accepts the limits of personal diplomacy. That no trilateral summit ever materializes. That with a quick resolution beyond reach, the Trump administration looks to quietly back out and close the door on its peace negotiation efforts. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov this week, “Anchorage's powerful momentum in favor of agreements has been largely exhausted.”
Narrowing interest for Ukraine
None of this is to say that the US is likely to curtail all support and overtures for Ukraine. After multiple incursions over NATO airspace by Russian drones in recent weeks, a deal for Ukraine to purchase a limited set of US Tomahawk missiles appears increasingly likely. According to polling, Americans (including Trump’s Republican base) continue to support Ukraine and see the US as having a responsibility towards helping the country. Yet, there has also been a large decline in belief that Russia’s invasion poses a major threat to US interests. Trump is asking himself the same question. How much does Ukraine mean to the US? How much would peace in Ukraine benefit the US, and perhaps more pointedly, benefit the president?
An end to the conflict in Israel raises the specter of Saudi-Israel normalization, wider regional integration, greater market access for the US in the region and in Trump’s loftiest dreams both a Nobel Peace Prize and Gaza-a-Lago. The end of war in Ukraine looks to Trump like good business for Europe, even existential for Europe, but increasingly less so for the US. Against these shifting dynamics there is a principle coming into focus: US interests are narrowing. The administration is willing to continue to provide financial and capability resources to Ukraine, but these will not be paid for by the US.
The Trump backstop may not be coming for Europe.
In these photos, emergency units carry out rescue work after a Russian attack in Ternopil and Prikarpattia oblasts on December 13, 2024. A large-scale Russian missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure left half of the consumers in the Ternopil region without electricity, the Ternopil Regional State Administration reported.
8: Cameroon’s 92-year-old president Paul Biya has already done it again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again – and this Sunday he will seek re-election yet again, for his 8th term in office. His health is so poor that last year he was briefly believed to be dead, and he has only appeared in one campaign event, but he’ll likely win, having disqualified his most prominent challenger.
2: EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen comfortably survived two separate no-confidence votes in the European Parliament on Thursday. The measures were brought to the floor by groups from the left and from the right. Both accused von der Leyen of rolling over in trade talks with the US, and for pursuing a deal with the South American Mercosur bloc that could hurt Europe’s farmers.
6 billion: The rules-based order really is falling apart, everywhere. Astronomers have identified a “young rogue planet” hundreds of light years from Earth that is currently “gobbling up” its surroundings at a rate of 6 billion tons per second. No word on whether the UN Security Council will issue a statement urging planet “Cha 1107-7626” to stop this unprovoked expansion, but scientists are excited about the insights that it provides on early planet formation.
What We’re Watching: China increases its trade leverage, Modi and Starmer meet, US undercuts Canada’s auto industry
U.S. President Donald Trump takes part in a welcoming ceremony with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017.
China cracks down on critical minerals
China has implemented broad new restrictions on exports of rare earth and other critical minerals vital for semiconductors, the auto industry, and military technology, of which it controls 70% of the global supply. The restrictions come after China cut back its purchases of US soybeans, as Beijing seeks to strengthen its negotiating position ahead of trade talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump later this month.
Modi and Starmer cut defense deals in New Delhi
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a posse of 100 business leaders took a trip to India on Monday, where he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled a plan to double their current $56 billion of trade by 2030. During the visit, they announced new defense deals worth over $799 million, marking a push to reduce India’s reliance on Russian arms, even as the two sides differ over Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Starmer confirmed he discussed India’s purchases of Russian oil with Modi but respects India’s strategic independence and sees defense cooperation as key to strengthening their partnership.
Carney and Trump meet to talk tariffs
Washington and Toronto buzzed this week with talk of the Canada-US relationship. On Tuesday Prime Minister Mark Carney joined President Donald Trump in the Oval Office for a warm but inconclusive meeting. There were no breakthroughs on tariffs, just promises to “work quickly” on steel, aluminum, and energy. Trump did reportedly appreciate Carney’s proposal to revive the long-dead Keystone XL pipeline, which Trump had proposed in February.
The next day in Toronto, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told attendees at the Eurasia Group and BMO US-Canada Summit that bilateral tariff deals were possible but that the integration of the two countries’ auto industries was “over.” This provoked angry reaction from Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who threatened to retaliate by cutting off energy and critical-mineral exports to the US.
French President Emmanuel Macron as he poses for a picture as he welcomes Crown Prince and Princess of the Kingdom of Jordan for a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on October 8, 2025.
France is in crisis – again. On Monday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after just 27 days in office, making him the shortest-serving premier in the history of the Fifth Republic and the fourth to fall in 13 months. His government collapsed before it was even sworn in, unable to survive the toxic arithmetic of a deadlocked National Assembly that has made France virtually ungovernable.
The problem traces back to President Emmanuel Macron's catastrophic decision to call snap elections last year. That gamble, designed to head off the surging far right, instead entrenched a three-way parliamentary deadlock between the left, the center-right, and Marine Le Pen's National Rally. No bloc commands anywhere near the 289 seats needed for a majority. Worse, Macron’s far-right archrival emerged with just enough seats to topple any government by joining forces with the left on no-confidence votes. The Fifth Republic was designed to concentrate power in the presidency and avoid chronic instability, but the system depends on either a clear presidential majority or a clear opposition willing to govern in cohabitation. Any government emerging from such a deeply splintered National Assembly was destined to be fragile.
The immediate trigger for Lecornu’s resignation was the 2026 budget. France's deficit hit 5.8% of GDP last year, the highest since World War II, while debt climbed to 113% of GDP. Lecornu was hired to do what his predecessors couldn’t: form a government that could bring the deficit down and tackle France’s ballooning debt before the end of the year – politically painful cuts that alienated both the center-left Socialists (who demanded the rollback of Macron's pension reform) and the center-right (which balked at tax increases). When he unveiled his cabinet Sunday night, it looked less like the “rupture” with the past he had promised than a reshuffling of the old guard, complete with the return of Bruno Le Maire, the veteran finance minister widely blamed for adding €1 trillion to France's debt in his seven-year tenure. The backlash was swift. Even Lecornu's center-right Républicains minority coalition partners threatened to walk. He resigned before parliament could vote him out.
In an unprecedented last-ditch move to stem the crisis, Macron accepted Lecornu's resignation but asked him to spend two more days searching for a budget compromise that could provide "action and stability" for a new government. If Lecornu failed, Macron said he would "take all his responsibilities" – universally interpreted as a threat to dissolve parliament and call snap elections for November. Both his fractious center-right coalition partners and the Socialist swing group risk losing seats if elections are held soon.
That threat might have worked. By Wednesday, Lecornu's negotiations had found “possibilities for compromise,” with all parties except the far right and hard left agreeing on the urgency of passing a deficit-cutting budget by year-end, allowing Macron to appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours. The emerging possibility: a Socialist-led, moderate-left minority government. A budget deal would come at a steep price – and wouldn't be guaranteed. Macron would likely have to swallow the suspension of his flagship 2023 pension reform – a humiliating reversal that would increase France's deficit by €3 billion in 2027, with larger longer-term implications – and accept new wealth and business taxes reversing reforms he spent eight years enacting.
Even with the passive backing of Macron’s centrist coalition, such a government would be very fragile, holding 29 seats short of a majority. But that support is far from guaranteed: one centrist leader, ex-Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, said his 29 deputies would never support suspending pension reform. The Socialists have ruled out using emergency constitutional powers to pass a budget, meaning any legislation would require negotiating with hostile blocs. Macron could make massive concessions and appoint yet another prime minister – his fourth in a year – yet he could still end up with a government that collapses within weeks.
Alternatively, Macron could dissolve parliament and call the snap elections he threatened. That would relieve the short-term pressure for Macron to resign – something Macron has firmly ruled out but even some of his former allies, including Philippe, are now calling for. But it wouldn’t solve the underlying problem. Polls suggest Macron’s centrist bloc would be crushed and the National Rally would emerge strengthened but probably fall short of a majority, resulting in another hung parliament – more deadlock, more instability, more market anxiety.
Another hung parliament would make a budget agreement nigh impossible. Macron would appoint a technocrat or elder statesman as prime minister, who’d most likely be toppled within weeks. The president could, in theory, keep appointing new premiers indefinitely – but after losing four in a year and with approval at just 17%, that path would deepen the sense he's ignoring the will of parliament and the people. Macron could also keep a censured prime minister as caretaker for up to a year and roll over the 2025 budget into 2026 using emergency legislation. That would avoid a US-style shutdown but push the deficit toward 6%, spook bond markets further, and make France look even more rudderless. French borrowing costs have already spiked to near-Italian levels; the spread over German Bunds hit 0.88 percentage points on Monday, close to its widest since 2012. Markets are losing patience in Europe’s second-largest economy.
If the National Rally managed to eke out a narrow majority, it’d be able to push through a 2026 budget – but it would struggle to deliver fiscal credibility. A draft budget is supposed to go to parliament by next Wednesday. An election would delay the process by up to six weeks. Moreover, while Le Pen favors more social spending, her de facto number two and likely prime minister candidate, Jordan Bardella, favors tax cuts. Neither aligns with the deficit-cutting that markets, rating agencies, and the EU are demanding.
A National Rally government would also force an unprecedentedly adversarial “cohabitation” between Macron and a far-right prime minister. France has seen cohabitation between presidents and prime ministers from different political camps before, but never between figures so ideologically opposed. Under the Fifth Republic constitution, the president shapes foreign and defense policy, but major initiatives require parliamentary ratification. A hostile National Rally majority could actively undermine not just French fiscal discipline but also EU cohesion and support for Ukraine.
The bottom line is that a snap legislative election wouldn’t fix France’s governability issues – it would just reset the deadlock or hand power to the far right. Only a presidential election can break the logjam in a constitutional system not built to handle this kind of fragmentation. That means either 18 more months of paralysis, market jitters, and mounting public frustration to fuel the populist fire, or a reckoning that brings the far right closer to the Élysée Palace than ever.
Even if Macron limps through the next 18 months, the damage is done. Business investment has declined for two years straight. Household savings have spiked near pandemic levels as consumers brace for instability. Economists estimate the turmoil has already cost 0.5 percentage points of GDP. The longer the paralysis drags on, the worse this gets – and the more attractive the far right looks as the only force capable of breaking the logjam.
The cruel irony is that Macron launched his career in 2017 with a singular mission: save France from the far right by building a durable center that could unite moderates from left and right. He won the presidency twice by framing the stakes as existential – vote for me or watch democracy crumble. But his technocratic centrism and top-down reforms bred resentment, not compromise. His decision to ram through pension reform without a vote, then dissolve parliament in a desperate bid to reassert control, destroyed what remained of his base, entrenched deadlock, and elevated Le Pen to kingmaker.
Whether Le Pen’s appeal of her conviction succeeds or she is barred from office and replaced by Bardella, the far right is positioned to capitalize on the wreckage of Macron’s centrist project. The extremes he vowed to defeat are now stronger than ever. The only question now is whether France reaches that reckoning in the next few months – or in a year and a half.
What We’re Watching: US arrives at Gaza peace negotiations, Japan’s potential next prime minister hits new hurdle, Trump ends Venezuela diplomacy
White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive before a joint press conference of U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the State Dining Room at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 29, 2025.
Trump’s team arrives to get the Gaza peace deal over the finish line
President Donald Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on Wednesday to join negotiations aimed at securing the release of remaining Hamas-held hostages and ending the two-year Gaza war. Their arrival marks a pivotal phase in indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, which began Monday. Trump has urged both sides to reach a deal within days, calling the next 48 hours crucial. Qatari, Turkish, Egyptian, and Israeli officials are also participating. US officials say Kushner and Witkoff will stay until an agreement is reached, expressing cautious optimism that a breakthrough is imminent.
Coalition rifts complicate the election of Japan’s next prime minister
Sanae Takaichi, who appeared poised to be Japan's next prime minister after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party voted this weekend, is already facing friction with her ruling coalition partner, Komeito, over concerns that she is too conservative. The rift could delay or even threaten her confirmation in parliament, where the coalition lacks a majority. If ties with Komeito break, Takaichi may have to turn to the fiscally liberal Democratic Party for the People, which would unsettle investors and further weaken the yen. Coalition talks are ongoing, with the parliamentary vote likely postponed. Opposition parties are exploring an alternative candidate, but analysts say Takaichi still seems likely to become Japan’s first female premier.
Trump ends Venezuela talks, paving way for military escalation
Donald Trump has ended diplomatic talks with Venezuela, signaling a shift toward potential military escalation against President Nicolás Maduro’s government and alleged drug trafficking networks. US envoy Richard Grenell had led months of negotiations with Maduro, but Trump ordered all outreach to stop after growing frustrated with Maduro’s refusal to yield power. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials advocate a harder line, labeling Maduro an “illegitimate” leader tied to cartels. The move follows US strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels near Venezuela, a formal declaration that the US is in “armed conflict” with cartel groups, and lays the groundwork for further escalation.
Hard Numbers: German cops take aim at drones, Ecuador prez attacked, China gets the biggest “gig,” & welcome to the new gold rush
A police drone is deployed over the crime scene in the city center. Shots were fired near the Bielefeld district court - one person was critically injured. A suspect has been arrested following the shooting near the district court. This was reported to the German Press Agency by police sources
- Friso Gentsch/dpa via Reuters Connect
5: Ecuadoran police arrested five people on charges of attempted assassination after a crowd of hundreds swarmed president Daniel Noboa’s car on Tuesday, pelting it with rocks and allegedly firing weapons. All five were members of the national indigenous rights federation, which said the attack on Noboa’s car was provoked by police who assaulted protestors demonstrating against the government’s recent decision to cut diesel subsidies.
4,000: The price of gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever, as investors clamored for more of the precious metal, a favorite financial safe haven, amid deepening uncertainty about the fate of the US government shutdown, the impact of trade wars on the global economy, and questions about interest rate policy at major central banks.
200 million: Which country is home to the largest and most advanced gig economy? Fully 200 million people in China depend on flexible employment, and more than 80 million of them have jobs tied to platforms that supply ride-hail drivers, food-delivery couriers or, increasingly, gig-workers for the manufacturing sector. By contrast, in neighboring India only 10m people are in the app-based gig economy.
Spiritual Counsel from Saul Zabar, Brooklyn-born founder of the famed New York City grocer Zabar’s, who died on Tuesday at 97. Zabar’s started out more than 70 years ago as a family owned shop on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, selling smoked fish, fresh bread, specialty cheeses, and other delicacies. It became a Gotham institution and a worldwide mail order giant. Farewell to a home town guy who became one of the world’s greatest “lox-smiths.”
How Oct. 7 has transformed Israel, Palestine, and the world
Two years ago today, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages. In response, Israel has carried out a military campaign that has demolished 78% of the Gaza Strip, and killed 66,000 Palestinians according to local health authorities.
The Oct. 7, 2023 attacks fundamentally transformed Israel, Palestine, and the world in ways that will persist for years — regardless of whether Donald Trump's current peace negotiations succeed. Here's what has changed and what lies ahead.
How Israel Has Changed
The attacks triggered a dramatic shift in Israeli politics. "It's galvanized the entirety of Israeli public opinion and shifted it much further to the right than anything that we've seen in recent years," explains Eurasia Group Middle East expert Firas Maksad.
This shift has effectively ended any prospect for a two-state solution. Support among Israelis for expanding control over Palestinian territories and increasing settlements has surged from 34% to 47% since Oct. 2024, according to the Jerusalem based Jewish People Policy Institute.
Another significant change – prospects for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future. Before the Oct. 7 attacks he seemed doomed amid mass protests over his attempts to control the courts. He was also facing corruption charges. The Oct. 7 attacks, and the subsequent war in Gaza, quickly shifted the focus elsewhere. But Netanyahu’s position is still fraught. Anger and protests over the failure to bring home the hostages have been steadily rising. His coalition depends on ultra far-right parties that oppose the Trump-brokered peace plan and are even more militant than Netanyahu. And those corruption charges are still hanging over him. The majority of Israelis believe he is responsible for the security failures on Oct. 7 and want him to resign.
His political fate now hinges on the ceasefire negotiations, Maksad says. If ceasefire talks collapse in the first phase – after hostages are released but before Israel withdraws – his coalition could survive. But full implementation of the pact would likely lead to his government collapsing. If he falls out of power he would lose immunity to corruption charges. It’s possible he could still work out a clemency deal, Maksad believes, that would allow him to "ride into the sunset, having cemented his legacy by defeating Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran."
How Palestine Has Changed
Gaza's destruction defies comprehension. Beyond the 78% of buildings destroyed, the territory has lost 98.5% of its cropland and 90% of its schools. Hamas is unlikely to return to political power any time soon. "They have proven inept and they have delivered little but misery and death to the Palestinian people," Maksad observes.
Hamas appears willing to relinquish governance to a third-party, but balks at Trump's proposal for international trusteeship to oversee Gaza. As Maksad explains, accepting outside control "runs against the grain of everything Hamas stands for" as an organization claiming to fight for Palestinian liberation.
However, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research found that a plurality of Gazans expected Hamas to remain in control of the strip after the war, though 40% supported the Palestinian Authority taking the reins. Two-thirds of those surveyed opposed the idea of an Arab security deployment like the one proposed in Trump’s plan. This suggests that further tensions over Gaza’s governance lie on the horizon as peace talks advance.
The West Bank faces its own crisis, with violence by armed Jewish settlers against Palestinians – often with the tacit support of the state – surging since Oct. 7. Settlements are expanding, the IDF has increased its incursions into the West Bank significantly, and five of 21 Israel’s cabinet ministers are now West Bank settlers, despite settlers comprising only 5% of Israel's population. The Palestinian Authority, starved of tax revenues by Israel, teeters on collapse.
How the Region Has Changed
Israel's military successes have dramatically reshuffled regional power dynamics. Iran's influence has crumbled as Israeli strikes have decimated two key parts of Tehran’s proxy network — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon – and inflicted significant damage on a third: the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Yet Israel's growing belligerence – Netanyahu proudly boasts of fighting a war “on seven fronts” – has strained the country’s burgeoning ties with the Gulf Arab monarchies and prompted new security relationships in the region. Following Israeli attacks on Qatar, Saudi Arabia announced a mutual defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan. Meanwhile Egypt and Turkey, despite ideological differences, are conducting joint naval exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean — a clear warning to Israel.
The Abraham Accords – a 2020 Trump brokered deal to normalize relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates – now hang in the balance. After the Qatar strikes earlier this month, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan reportedly had a "screaming match" with Netanyahu, warning that such actions undermined the Abraham Accords. Trump's subsequent security guarantees to Qatar, following Israel’s airstrikes on Hamas leaders there, reflect his determination to not only preserve one of the crowning foreign policy achievements of his first term, but according to Maksad, “his future plans to expand them through Saudi-Israeli normalization.”
How the US-Israel Relationship Has Changed
American attitudes toward the Israeli government have shifted dramatically, with a new New York Times/Siena University poll revealing that the plurality of Americans believe the Israeli military is intentionally killing civilians. For the first time since the survey began in 1998, more Americans sympathize with Palestinians than Israelis.
This decline in support among the US public mirrors a broader turn against Israel internationally, which was on stark display at the UN General Assembly last month, when representatives of 50 nations walked out ahead of Netanyahu’s speech. Israel's international isolation — Maksad calls it the worst "since its creation in 1948" — has made it even more dependent on Washington. The $22 billion in US aid since October 7 has been essential to Israel's military operations.
"Bibi is so beholden to Donald Trump and can't afford to be on the other side of him," Maksad concludes. This dependency may force Netanyahu to accept ceasefire terms he finds deeply uncomfortable – like language about a pathway towards a Palestinian state and Gaza being eventually reunited with the West Bank. And Trump has shown new willingness to constrain Israeli actions, forcefully rejecting West Bank annexation plans and prohibiting Palestinian displacement from Gaza.
Whether the ceasefire talks will be successful remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure two years into the war. "It's been a sea change,” says Maksad. “There is no going back to the Pre-Oct. 7 reality anytime soon."