Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Video
President Trump reportedly hasn't yet decided whether or not to invade Venezuela. But the fact that a man who got elected on ending endless wars is even considering waging war in the Western hemisphere is remarkable. How did we get here, and what happens next? Eurasia Group's Risa Grais-Targow breaks it down in the latest episode of #TheDebrief
Trump's been cagey on whether or not the US will go to war with Venezuela, but would he? Here's how it could happen and why.
So here's the context. Trump has started taking the war on drugs literally. You've probably seen US strikes on boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying drugs, an issue that plays well with Trump's base in both red states and swing states and makes Democrats look weak. There's also concerns around migration flows, an issue that is very important for key advisors like Stephen Miller within the cabinet.
But this is about more than appearing tough on drugs and immigration. It's also about regime change. Ousting President Nicolas Maduro is unfinished business from Trump's first term and a key priority for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
There's also an element of psychological warfare here. You have a massive US military buildup just off the coast of Venezuela aimed at getting in Maduro's head, and it just might work.
Geopolitics are also key here. Trump is keen to show China that the US is strong in its backyard, Latin America, as we saw with his moves related to the Panama Canal earlier this year. He's also taking advantage of the fact that Maduro's typical allies, Russia, Iran, China, are either weak or distracted and are unlikely to come to his rescue. All of this suggests that the US may be readying for moves against Venezuela.
Obviously, US war with Venezuela would be a huge deal, but it's also about short-term political wins versus a long-term strategy, and that means that it could escalate very quickly.There's also competing interests within Trump's cabinet. For Stephen Miller, this is about testing the limits of presidential power while Rubio is more focused on toppling a leftist regime in the region that he sees as propping up other leftist regimes, including Cuba and Nicaragua.
Then there's Trump himself, who may or may not lose interest, especially if this is something that's not going to deliver a quick win.
So which way is this going to go? Here are a few things to look out for. The first is an escalation of "Maduro Must Go" rhetoric coming from the White House, something that we're just starting to see. The second is a broader campaign against cartels in the region that shifts the US focus to other countries like Mexico and Colombia.
Finally, there's strikes within Venezuelan territory itself, which could put the US on a clear path to escalation, at which point we may be past the point of no return. And unfortunately, the thing about a point of no return is that you don't always know you're there until you've passed it.
As artificial intelligence transforms work, how do organizations equip people with the skills to thrive?
Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President of Microsoft, says the answer lies in understanding a new landscape of AI skills.
Speaking at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Global AI Summit, Smith outlined three key skills needed in the AI era:
1. AI fluency, the ability to use AI tools effectively;
2. AI engineering, focused on building advanced AI applications; and
3. Organizational leadership, which emphasizes guiding teams through cultural and operational change
He also highlighted global disparities in AI adoption: “We are in the global capital today of AI adoption … the UAE leads the world with roughly a 59% per capita adoption rate … the United States is only 29%.”
Smith shared these insights during the panel “Bringing AI Technology, Trust, and Talent to the World,” part of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series in partnership with Microsoft, which brings together global leaders to discuss the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
As AI reshapes the global economy, who gets left behind and how can developing nations catch up?
At the 2025 Abu Dhabi Global AI Summit, UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan warns that without deliberate action, the world’s poorest countries risk exclusion from the AI revolution. “There is no way that trickle down will make the trick,” she tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis. “We have to think about inclusion by design.”
Grynspan stresses that financing and investment, not just aid, are critical: “3.4 billion people live in countries spending more on debt service than on health or education.” She calls for the World Bank and IMF to “assume more risk” to help scale private investment in developing economies.
Despite rising tariffs and trade tensions, she notes trade remains resilient driven by digital services, AI innovation, and the growing need for smarter global cooperation.
This conversation is part of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, presented in partnership with Microsoft.
A Democratic Socialist, Mamdani’s rise signals a generational and ideological shift in American politics. “Mamdani represents an urban, educated, professional base,” Ian explains.
But unlike right-wing populism rooted in nationalism and manufacturing, this new movement stems from economic insecurity driven by AI disruption, stagnant hiring, and generational inequality.
The result, Ian says, is a wave of progressive populism the Democratic establishment isn’t prepared for and one Donald Trump hopes to exploit. “President Trump wants Mamdani to win as a foil, as someone he intends to go to war against… Mamdani is more politically expedient and useful.”
AI is the fastest-growing general-purpose technology in history but its benefits are uneven. Half the world lacks the combined foundations of electricity, internet access, and digital skills needed to use AI at all.
In this Global Stage panel, Becky Anderson (CNN) leads a candid discussion on how to close that gap with Brad Smith (Vice Chair & President, Microsoft), Peng Xiao (CEO, G42), Ian Bremmer (President & Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media), and Baroness Joanna Shields (Executive Chair, Responsible AI Future Foundation).
What does “AI diffusion” actually require? Power first, then connectivity, then skills. As Brad Smith explains, “You can’t build AI in the sky, it needs a foundation: electricity, internet, and digital skills.” The panel explores the hard realities of energy capacity, data-center diplomacy, and why grid investment will determine which nations can compete in the next phase of AI development.
Building on that theme, Peng Xiao underscores the centrality of energy to progress: “The cost of intelligence will become the cost of energy.” His company, G42, is expanding AI infrastructure from the Gulf to Africa and Southeast Asia, leveraging regional power resources to unlock broader access.
From AI fluency to AI engineering and organizational change, the conversation also breaks down the capabilities countries need and how local ecosystems can create jobs rather than replace them. Ian Bremmer reminds the audience that geopolitics and skilling are linked: “AI is geopolitical by design. The winners who shape the algorithms will shape society.”
As AI races ahead of some societies’ ability to adapt, the panel highlights the UAE’s investment in national AI education, from early-age programs to university-level innovation, as a model for inclusive growth.
How do we embed responsibility into models, content, and agentic workflows? Baroness Joanna Shields calls this a defining moment: “This is a civilization-uplift moment we can’t afford to miss.” She stresses that responsible AI means empowering everyone equally, ensuring that local cultures, values, and languages shape the systems built for them.
The discussion explores emerging tools like watermarking and auditable agent interactions, alongside the global governance efforts led by the UN and multistakeholder coalitions, to balance innovation and accountability across regions.
The Global Stage series, presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft, convenes leaders from government, business, and civil society at major international forums to examine the critical issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society, and to explore how global cooperation can deliver solutions in an era of accelerating change.
She notes that half of cyber incidents now involve ransomware or extortion and warns that attacks once considered business risks have become “a societal challenge,” targeting hospitals and critical systems with life-or-death consequences.
Monaco calls on governments, the private sector, and civil society to “pool our resources, pool our expertise” to build collective resilience against these growing threats.
She spoke with GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis at the 2025 Paris Peace Forum panel, “Collective Resilience in the Age of AI,” part of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series with Microsoft.
Ian Bremmer shares an update from Abu Dhabi, a place he calls “the global capital for AI development.”
With affordable energy, huge data centers, and one of the highest AI adoption rates in the world (59% of the population already uses AI), the UAE is powering full speed into the AI future.
But to use artificial intelligence, reliable power grids are needed.
Ian warns, “Many nations are doing a poor job building out their electricity grids … that’s going to mean inflation … and competition between using power for AI or for your people. That’s already starting to happen in the United States.”
As AI adoption grows, the next big challenge won’t be innovation, it’ll be energy. Countries that can’t meet surging electricity demand risk political backlash and slower growth, while those investing now, like the UAE, will have a powerful advantage in the new global economy.