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Europe
What We’re Watching: UK’s Starmer on the ropes, Mexico’s Sheinbaum beefs up security in wild West, Hamas fighters trapped in their own tunnels
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street in London, United Kingdom, on November 12, 2025.
Is the UK’s prime minister heading for the exit?
Just 18 months after Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a 174-seat majority in Parliament, he’s now clinging to power, with reports that he could be removed when he announces the budget in two weeks’ time. His allies say he will fight any attempts from within the party to oust him. Why is Starmer struggling? The economy is stagnant, he can’t unite his party, and he hasn’t crafted a clear vision for the country amid pressure from both the left and the right. To initiate the removal process, though, 20% of Labour MPs must nominate a challenger. Will any of Starmer’s allies turn on him and run against the PM?
Mexico’s president vs. the narcos of Michoacán
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is facing a major test of her security policy in the cartel-riddled western state of Michoacán, where the recent assassination of a popular mayor has sparked protests. Sheinbaum has sent in an additional 1,000 federal troops, bringing the total deployment to 10,000, and pledged $3 billion to boost security while also tackling poverty and other root causes of cartel power. Since taking office a year ago, Sheinbaum has pursued a harder line against cartels than her political patron and predecessor, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, in part because of heightened pressure from the Trump administration.
Trapped Hamas fighters put Phase 2 of ceasefire in jeopardy
As Phase 1 of Gaza's ceasefire nears its end, 200 Hamas fighters who are not being allowed to leave tunnels in Israeli-controlled Rafah have emerged as a critical obstacle. Hamas wants them to be granted safe passage to Hamas-controlled areas – an idea that US special envoy Steve Witkoff was amenable to in exchange for the terrorist group disarming. However, Israel is reluctant to allow them to go free. Phase 2 negotiations began yesterday, which will require Hamas disarmament, IDF withdrawal, a transitional government, and international peacekeepers. But resolving the tunnel standoff comes first. Even then, documents obtained by Politico reveal Trump administration officials harbor deep doubts about whether both sides will follow through on Phase 2.
A fruit and vegetable stall is lit by small lamps during a blackout in a residential neighborhood in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 6, 2025, after massive Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in October.
As a fourth winter of war approaches, Russia is destroying Ukraine’s energy grid faster than it can be rebuilt. “We lost everything we were restoring,” Centrenergo, one of Ukraine's largest power operators, said on Facebook following a devastating weekend assault that reduced the country's energy capacity to “zero.”
Since Sunday, most of Ukraine has been plunged into intermittent darkness as the government schedules rolling blackouts to preserve what little power remains. Russian drones and missiles have pummeled power plants, substations, and gas infrastructure in a relentless campaign that has intensified as temperatures drop. Further complicating the situation, Ukrainian authorities charged senior energy officials with a $100 million kickback scheme – which has outraged the public and raised concerns that graft could ward off desperately needed energy assistance from the European Union.
“Since the start of the war, Russia’s main objective in attacking civilian energy infrastructure is to demoralize the population and inflict economic damage,” says Eurasia Group analyst Dani Podogoretskaya. The targets extend beyond power facilities to hospitals, apartment buildings, schools, and kindergartens – all aimed at breaking Ukrainian resolve.
More than three years into the conflict, the strategy appears to be working, at least on paper. Some 69% of Ukrainians now say they are ready to settle for a negotiated end to the war, up sharply from just 22% in 2022. “This is exhausting for Ukrainians,” says Eurasia Group Russia expert Alex Brideau. “They are resisting, but it is taking a toll.”
Yet, with Vladimir Putin showing no signs of coming to the negotiating table, Ukrainians are simultaneously growing more resilient and resigned, adapting their lives to sustain the war effort. Many have purchased small generators to keep the lights on.
Ukraine's military isn't surrendering to the initiative either. Though far less frequent than the strikes they endure, Ukrainian forces have landed attacks deep inside Russia, targeting its energy infrastructure to bring the war home to ordinary Russians. “[This weekend’s] strikes have reinforced the imperative of fighting and winning,” says Podogoretskaya.
A chill across Europe. Ukraine’s energy crisis won’t remain contained within its borders. As the country’s ability for power generation collapses, it must turn to European neighbors for electricity and gas imports — a shift already reverberating through EU energy markets strained since Russia’s invasion.
The pressure is showing up in prices. German baseload electricity for January 2026 delivery has climbed nearly €10 per megawatt-hour in recent weeks, now exceeding €105/MWh and up from €94/MWh in November. Ukraine’s increased demand for imported power will continue pushing regional prices upward as winter deepens.
But the longer-term consequences may prove even more significant. Russia’s systematic destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure has poisoned any remaining prospects for cooperation. The idea of resuming Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines – once a cornerstone of the continent’s energy supply – is now politically dead.
“Any transit arrangement would be viewed as rewarding Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure,” says Podogoretskaya. Ukrainian politicians, energy officials, and security experts are united in their opposition to serving as a conduit for Russian gas after watching their power sector and domestic production facilities reduced to rubble. This stance will shape European energy policy for years to come, cementing the EU’s pivot away from Russian energy dependence – even as the costs of that transition continue to mount.
Hard Numbers: Israel arrests violent settlers, US House ends extended recess, Botswana eyes majority stake in diamond giant, & More
An Israeli activist is seen recording illegal settlers driving past a village in Masafer Yatta in the West Bank, on October 28, 2025.
4: Israeli police arrested four Jewish nationalists Tuesday after dozens of them attacked Palestinians and set fire to property in the West Bank. The issue of settler violence in the region has grown over the last two years – in tandem with the war in Gaza – but has spiked further in recent weeks, as Palestinians have been taking to the fields to harvest olives.
54: Who wouldn’t enjoy an almost eight-week break? Well that’s just what members of the US House of Representatives have had, but they are finally returning from their 54-day recess to vote on a continuing resolution that will end the government shutdown. Expect a vote later today.
49: A Catholic mother in the Normandy town of Dozule claimed in the 1970s that she had seen Jesus (of Nazareth) not once, not twice, but 49 times. The Vatican disagrees, though, affirming today that reports of those sightings were not genuine. The last Vatican-confirmed Jesus sighting was in 2013, when his face reportedly appeared at a church in India.
14: Hungary has extended a profit-margin cap to 14 more consumer products, including apples and processed cheese, as inflation remains elevated. Ahead of next spring elections, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is increasingly under pressure from Peter Magyar, the popular Fidesz defector who is now leading him in some polls.
15%: Botswana is bidding to acquire a majority stake of the diamond giant De Beers, up from its 15% share of the firm. The southern African nation’s move is part of an effort to reverse the diamond industry downturn – read all about that here (and watch a video about it here).
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the changing dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war, where Europe is taking the lead in military support while the US adjusts its approach.
“This has gone from a war that the United States was providing most of the direct support to Ukraine to one where the Europeans are clearly taking the leadership role, and this is much more of an existential issue for them,” says Ian.
Meanwhile, the US has eased targeting restrictions, expanded intelligence sharing, and placed new oil sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies adding pressure even if it won’t shift the battlefield immediately.
But peace remains distant. Ukraine has signaled willingness for a ceasefire; Russia has not. “They’re demanding more territory and Ukrainian disarmament,” Ian warns. He says to expect incremental Russian gains, rising casualties, and the ongoing risk of the conflict spilling into NATO countries.
President Trump misinterpreted Vladimir Putin’s comments about nuclear-powered weapons; he reportedly ordered preparations to test US nuclear weapons, sparking Russia and North Korea to signal they might do the same.
Bildt explains how this confusion could reverse 35 years of progress in limiting nuclear tests and destabilize an already volatile world on GZERO Europe.
So let's talk about what both leaders want to get out of the meeting. As with most things in Europe, Russia-Ukraine is going to be a really important talking point, but unlike most leaders in the EU, Orbán is not as keen to end the war. He is very keen to continue importing Russian oil. I think Orbán also wants to demonstrate to Trump that he and other leaders in Europe support Trump's agenda. They share his politics. They subscribe to his worldview and that they can be vectors of influence for Trump within the EU.As for Trump, the consummate deal-maker, he's very keen to sell more liquefied natural gas to Hungary.
But I'm actually a lot less interested in the White House meeting and a lot more interested in what Orbán is leaving behind in Budapest. Orbán is on the verge of losing everything. There's an election in April. And an upstart challenger, actually, one of Orbán's former closest allies, Péter Magyar, has created a new party and looks as if he may topple Orbán's regime.
So what is this challenge today for Orbán? He's faced many opponents before. But unlike those opponents, Péter Magyar also hails from the right. That makes it a lot harder for Orbán to knock him down and say he's a simple liberal and leftist. Magyar has also been able to expose all of the deep-seated economic challenges the average Hungarian is struggling with. Inflation, cost of living, these are issues the Orbán administration has not been able to address.
But think about what this moment means for Europe right now not just for Orbán himself. The far right is ascendant. In France and in Germany, the national rally, the AfD, they are biding their time, hoping that they're going to win power in the very near future. They're going to be looking at Viktor Orbán and his struggles and wondering is he the canary in the coalmine or is he yesterday's news about to fade into obscurity?
All of these ideas are going to be swirling around Viktor Orbán's mind as he meets the most prominent far-right populist Donald Trump in Washington today.
What We’re Watching: Orbán seeks Russian oil carveout from Trump, Nigerien uranium to pass through risky area, Israel hits southern Lebanon
US President Donald Trump and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shake hands as they pose for a photo, at a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, 2025.
MAGA’s European hero comes to Washington – with a mission
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will visit the White House today to try to convince US President Donald Trump to allow him to continue purchasing Russian oil despite new US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms. Oil refineries in China and India – the largest two buyers of Russian oil – are already exploring alternatives. But Orbán is hoping he can leverage his personal and ideological connection to Trump to gain a carveout. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russian pipelines for nearly 90% of its oil, though other non-Russian import routes via the Balkans are also possible. With the opposition surging ahead of next April’s election, there’s a lot on the line for Orbán. Will Trump give his mate a favor, or put his foot down?
Will Nigerien uranium reach Russia?
French officials believe Russian nuclear giant Rosatom struck a $170-million deal with the ruling military junta in Niger to purchase 1,000 tons of uranium from a mine formerly run by a French firm. The reported deal is the latest sign of Russia’s growing influence in the region, at the expense of the former colonial power, France. The greater concern with this purchase, though, could be that the uranium will have to pass through areas of Burkina Faso that are controlled by jihadist groups. Islamist militants are gaining momentum in West Africa – they have the Malian capital surrounded – sparking concern among governments in the region.
Israel attacks southern Lebanon
Israel temporarily breached its ceasefire deal with Lebanon on Thursday, issuing evacuation orders before bombing buildings in southern Lebanon it claimed were a part of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. One person was killed and three were injured, per media reports. The Israeli military said the strikes were due to Hezbollah rebuilding its military capabilities, despite the Lebanese government agreeing to disarm the group. Fears are rising in Lebanon that Israel may resume major airstrikes if Hezbollah doesn’t give up its weapons soon, but Lebanon's government worries about inflaming local tensions if they push Hezbollah too aggressively.