Can Putin still outlast Ukraine?

For years, Russia has counted on one advantage above all else: time. Ian Bremmer explains why Ukraine's expanding campaign inside Russia is challenging that assumption, and what it could mean for the future of the war.

For more than four years, the war in Ukraine has been driven by a simple calculation: that Russia can outlast Ukraine and its Western allies. But that assumption is beginning to face its biggest test yet.

Ian Bremmer examines how Ukraine's increasingly sophisticated drone campaign is bringing the war deep into Russian territory, targeting energy infrastructure, military assets, and even Crimea. He explains why these strikes matter beyond their immediate military impact, and how they are forcing the Kremlin to defend territory once thought untouchable.

Ian also explores the broader geopolitical picture, from President Trump's evolving stance on Ukraine and renewed NATO support to the growing economic pressures facing Russia. While none of this means Putin is on the verge of defeat, it does suggest the war may be entering a new phase, one in which the costs for Russia continue to rise, and the risks of escalation grow alongside them.