Trump, Russia, and a deal Ukraine can’t accept

Ian Bremmer breaks down why the latest Russia-Ukraine “peace push” is headed back to Moscow and why the outlook is bleak.

President Trump wants the war over regardless of the consequences for Ukraine or Europe. That means applying pressure to the weaker party, and with Kyiv rocked by a major corruption scandal and the fall of chief of staff Andriy Yermak, Ukraine is now more vulnerable diplomatically.

Russia knows this. Rather than proposing terms Ukraine might accept, Putin is putting forward maximalist demands designed to look like engagement while ensuring rejection, hoping Trump’s team will blame Kyiv and peel Europeans away.

With Europe now providing almost all financial support to Ukraine, divisions between Washington and key NATO allies make a meaningful agreement even less likely. “The war continues, people die, and Ukraine’s final position is likely to be worse than what they are in presently,” Ian warns.

A small silver lining: Jared Kushner has joined the negotiations and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is asserting more independence. But for now, Ian says, the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is not heading in a positive direction.