January 12, 2026
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the protests across Iran and how the Trump administration might respond.
He cites reports of over 500+ protestors killed and casualties among security forces, noting that the Trump administration believes “the violence is a lot worse by the state than what we are consuming in the media."
Ian suggests that any US strikes would likely target paramilitary groups, not the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, aiming to show support for demonstrators rather than pursue regime change. He concludes that the regime is on “borrowed time,” but for now, “the likelihood that this escalates dramatically militarily in the region is very low.”
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Protesters gather as vehicles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on January 9, 2026.
Social Media/via REUTERS
When the protests began 12 days ago, the focus was on Iran’s dire economic conditions. Anger at the Islamic Republic itself is exacerbating them, and raising questions about the regime’s long-term legitimacy.
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