In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer addresses the aftermath of the US military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, calling the results so far “pretty successful.”
Ian notes that no Americans were killed and that the regional response has been largely positive, particularly in South America, where Maduro was widely viewed as “exporting instability” through mass migration and drug trafficking.
Ian explains that the US avoided a full regime-change scenario with “boots on the ground,” instead applying pressure from offshore while signaling expectations to Venezuela’s remaining leadership.
The result, he says, has been greater openness to investment, especially in oil and mining, and a path toward renewed diplomacy and possible IMF engagement.
While cautioning that Venezuela remains “functionally an authoritarian regime,” Ian argues that limited US aims have produced “more significantly positive” outcomes for Venezuelans than in recent years.
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US-backed negotiations are opening a possible path to democratic elections in Venezuela – even as the country’s most popular opposition leader remains outside the room.