What We're Watching

What We’re Watching: Israel reportedly warns Lebanon, China-Japan tiff escalates, Canada says it will give aid to Cuba

​People inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on Friday, in Bednayel, Bekaa valley, Lebanon, February 21, 2026.
People inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on Friday, in Bednayel, Bekaa valley, Lebanon, February 21, 2026.
REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Israel reportedly warns Lebanon about further strikes

Israel indirectly warned Lebanon that it would strike its northern neighbor hard if the Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah gets involved in any future US-Iran conflict, two Lebanese officials told Reuters. Israel damaged Hezbollah severely in 2024 as part of strikes on southern Lebanon, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah along with thousands of its fighters. Since then, it has been pushing the Lebanese government to disarm the militia group, but Beirut hasn’t been able to achieve this. Israel struck northeast Lebanon as recently as Friday, killing 10 people – including eight Hezbollah members. The reported warning to Lebanese officials suggests there could be more to come. The sizable US military build-up in the Middle East, which could theoretically provide Israel with cover, may also encourage action in Lebanon.

China-Japan tensions rise further

Beijing on Tuesdayimposed tight controls on exports of equipment and technology to dozens of major Japanese firms that it says are involved in Tokyo’s “remilitarization” and nuclearization ambitions. Tensions between the two old foes have risen significantly since Japan’s conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi saidlast fall that her country would view any Chinese attack on Taiwan as a direct threat to Japan, requiring a military response. China called that a “red line which should not be touched” and responded by cutting food exports and slashing Chinese tourism to Japan. The latest measures mark a further escalation between East Asia’s two largest economies, and they come amidbroader uncertainty about the extent of the Trump administration’s commitment to its longstanding allies in the region.

Can Canada come to Cuba’s rescue?

Ottawa said Monday that it plans to send aid to Cuba, the destitute island nation that is rapidly running out of fuel after the Trump administration halted Venezuelan oil shipments last month and pressured Mexico to reduce its crude exports to Havana. Though Canada refused to share details on the contents of the aid package, Canada’s assistance could undermine US efforts to implement a de facto blockade against the communist-run island. Canada said it was concerned about the increasing humanitarian crisis there, and would join Mexico in providing aid. The move, if greenlit, would further exacerbate the tensions between Washington and Ottawa ahead of the USMCA review later this year.

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