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What We’re Watching: Orbán seeks Russian oil carveout from Trump, Nigerien uranium to pass through risky area, Israel hits southern Lebanon
US President Donald Trump and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shake hands as they pose for a photo, at a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, 2025.
MAGA’s European hero comes to Washington – with a mission
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will visit the White House today to try to convince US President Donald Trump to allow him to continue purchasing Russian oil despite new US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms. Oil refineries in China and India – the largest two buyers of Russian oil – are already exploring alternatives. But Orbán is hoping he can leverage his personal and ideological connection to Trump to gain a carveout. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russian pipelines for nearly 90% of its oil, though other non-Russian import routes via the Balkans are also possible. With the opposition surging ahead of next April’s election, there’s a lot on the line for Orbán. Will Trump give his mate a favor, or put his foot down?
Will Nigerien uranium reach Russia?
French officials believe Russian nuclear giant Rosatom struck a $170-million deal with the ruling military junta in Niger to purchase 1,000 tons of uranium from a mine formerly run by a French firm. The reported deal is the latest sign of Russia’s growing influence in the region, at the expense of the former colonial power, France. The greater concern with this purchase, though, could be that the uranium will have to pass through areas of Burkina Faso that are controlled by jihadist groups. Islamist militants are gaining momentum in West Africa – they have the Malian capital surrounded – sparking concern among governments in the region.
Israel attacks southern Lebanon
Israel temporarily breached its ceasefire deal with Lebanon on Thursday, issuing evacuation orders before bombing buildings in southern Lebanon it claimed were a part of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. One person was killed and three were injured, per media reports. The Israeli military said the strikes were due to Hezbollah rebuilding its military capabilities, despite the Lebanese government agreeing to disarm the group. Fears are rising in Lebanon that Israel may resume major airstrikes if Hezbollah doesn’t give up its weapons soon, but Lebanon's government worries about inflaming local tensions if they push Hezbollah too aggressively.
Hard Numbers: Typhoon rips through the Philippines, Europe wants more rail, Israel returns bodies to Gaza, Canada’s Carney unveils first budget
85: A typhoon ripped through the Philippines on Tuesday, killing at least 85 people and forcing roughly 400,000 people to flee their homes – many of which are now flooded. The typhoon is set to continue through other parts of Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.
€345 billion: Europe may be tightening its internal borders, but it’s still pushing its trains: The European Union on Wednesday laid out a €345-billion ($396-billion) plan to slash train times between major European cities over the next 10-15 years. Under the plan, there will be trains that run at 200 kilometers per hour (roughly 125 mph) between each major EU city.
15: Israel returned the bodies of 15 Palestinians to Gaza on Wednesday, as part of ongoing exchanges required by last month’s ceasefire deal. Israeli authorities have now returned 285 bodies since the deal was signed, though it is not clear how many more they are holding. Hamas still holds the remains of seven Israeli hostages.
CA$78 billion: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled his first budget on Tuesday, which includes new infrastructure spending, funds for the military, and major immigration cuts. However, the budget shows a deficit of $78 billion, the second-largest in the country’s history.
Hard Numbers: Hamas returns three more hostage bodies, Tanzanian prez win reelection after quashing opposition, Another earthquake strikes Afghanistan, & More
A Palestinian Hamas militant keeps guard as Red Cross personnel head towards an area within the so-called “yellow line” to which Israeli troops withdrew under the ceasefire, as Hamas says it continues to search for the bodies of deceased hostages seized during the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, in Gaza City, on November 2, 2025.
3: On Sunday, Hamas handed the Israeli military the remains of three more hostages held in Gaza. The militant group said it had found them that same day in some of its tunnels beneath southern Gaza. Israel confirmed that the bodies belong to three deceased hostages, meaning there are now eight unreturned bodies left in Gaza. Returning all the bodies is a key condition for the fragile Hamas-Israel ceasefire.
98%: Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner on Saturday of the East African country’s election with 98% of the vote. Several opposition leaders were barred from running and detained, and the government shut down the internet in the run up to the election in a bid to quash unrest.
6.3: A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck northern Afghanistan early Monday morning, killing at least 20 people and leaving hundreds injured. The quake also caused a power outage across the country, including in the capital Kabul, as electricity lines running from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were damaged. It’s the second major earthquake to hit Afghanistan in the last few months.
$9.6 billion: Humans’ attention spans are getting short. How short? Chinese media studios are rushing to create “mini-drama” series where each episode lasts two minutes or less. The industry is flourishing, and is forecast to reach $9.6 billion (CN¥68.6 billion) in size this year. This would exceed China’s traditional box office.
Hard Numbers: Italian pacifists stall EU ammo, Israel and Hamas at odds over hostage remains, Former Malian PM gets jail sentence, & More
Troisi Theater in Fuorigrotta during the presentation of the Five Star Movement's candidate lists for the Campania region, with the presence of Presidential Candidate Roberto Fico and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
13: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire again hangs by a thread as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the remains of an Israeli hostage returned overnight belonged to another body recovered by Israeli forces two years ago. The remains of 13 hostages remain in Gaza, Hamas says it is struggling to find their bodies amid the rubble.
2: A Malian court sentenced former Prime Minister Moussa Mara to two years in prison after he criticized the military government for harming the country’s democracy, Mara’s lawyer said on Monday. President Assimi Goïta has reportedly cracked down on dissent ever since seizing power in a 2021 coup.
18: An instant classic, last night’s game three of the World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays ran to an astounding 18 innings, lasting more than six hours before the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off home run to win it. No word yet on how this affects frozen US-Canada trade talks.
14,000: Amazon will cut about 14,000 corporate jobs as it leans further into AI to streamline operations. The company plans more layoffs next year, citing over-hiring during the pandemic and broader plans to reshape Amazon’s workforce.
Hard Numbers: Pope and king pray together, Gazans bury unidentified dead, Cast of crabs begin Christmas Island migration, & More
King Charles III says goodbye to Pope Leo XIV in the San Damaso Courtyard, in St Peter's Square, after attending the ecumenical service in the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City, during the state visit to the Holy See, on October 23, 2025.
491: In a moment of religious and historical significance, King Charles III prayed alongside Pope Leo XIV today, becoming the first head of the Church of England to do so since this church split from the Vatican 491 years ago. The two leaders also exchanged gifts: Charles gave Leo a silver photograph of St. Edward the Confessor, and in return, the pontiff handed the king a scale version of the “Christ Pantocrator” mosaic.
54: Gazans buried the unidentified remains of 54 Palestinians on Wednesday that Israeli authorities had returned to the strip. The mass burial has prompted questions in Gaza about who the dead were, and what had happened to them. Israeli authorities said they had been combatants in Gaza.
36,734: The number of people crossing the Channel from France to the United Kingdom has already hit 36,734 so far this year, but that amount may be set to increase further – and the French political crisis is partly to blame. Paris appears to be backing away from recent commitments to clamp down on this form of migration, in part due to the recent exit of Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who had instigated an aggressive approach.
50 million: A cast of roughly 50 million crabs have begun their annual migration across Christmas Island off the coast of Australia, as they will move from their homes to the beaches to lay their eggs. Authorities on the island have built special bridges to help the crabs navigate obstacles like roads.
677: Nearly 700 foreigners fled Myanmar into Thailand after the military seized KK Park, a notorious Chinese-backed cybercrime compound known for cyber scams run by criminal gangs.. Thai authorities detained 677 people, mostly from China and India, and say all actions follow legal and humanitarian principles.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the inaugural session of the Shura Council in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on September 10, 2025.
The vibes are good between the United States and Saudi Arabia right now.
Negotiations have advanced on a mutual defense pact, one that would involve military and intelligence cooperation. The two oil-producing nations agreed on scuttling a deal that would have introduced internationally-mandated emissions targets for shipping. There are discussions, even, of holding a National Football League game in Riyadh.
But how far can the two nations go together? Could Saudi Arabia go so far as to join the Abraham Accords, the US-brokered normalization of ties between Arab states and Israel?
As the ceasefire in Gaza holds – albeit tenuously – the United States is already eyeing its next Middle East mission: having Saudi Arabia join Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE as a signatory of the Accords and normalizing ties with Israel. This would authorize business relations, tourism between the two countries, and enable official diplomatic links. Riyadh has never recognized the Jewish state, and until three years ago, it wouldn’t even let commercial Israeli planes fly over its airspace. But its ever-closer relationship with Washington, as well as its thawing ties with Israel, suggest joining the Accords may be a real possibility.
How did the US and Saudi get so close? Saudi Arabia has been a major US partner in the Middle East ever since the Kingdom was founded in 1932. The relationship has largely centered on oil, with US firms helping the Saudi government explore the fossil fuel in the 1930s. More recently, it has shifted toward defense equipment.
There have been some major points of tension along the way, most notably from the 1973 oil embargo, the 9/11 attacks – 15 of the 19 hijackers that day were from from Saudi – the 2015 US-brokered nuclear deal with the Kingdom’s main regional rival Iran, and, most recently, when Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. A US report later found that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) greenlit the hit. During the 2020 US presidential campaign, former President Joe Biden suggested that Saudi should be a “pariah” state.
When US President Donald Trump returned to office, though, the tensions between the two countries dissipated. Just like in his first term, the US leader’s first major foreign visit of his second term was to the Gulf state, where he was greeted with a sea of opulent displays from his Saudi counterparts – rather different from Biden’s awkward fist-bump with MBS in 2022. The Crown Prince is set to pay a visit to Washington next month, too, his first since 2018.
Can the US transfer this goodwill to Saudi-Israel relations? The Kingdom has long said that it won’t normalize relations with Israel until the Jewish state recognizes a Palestinian state, a move that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unlikely to make.
Yet there are signs that the longstanding tensions between the two countries are easing. Just before the Israel-Hamas war began more than two years ago, MBS said his country was moving “closer” each day toward a deal with Israel. Though those negotiations stalled in the wake of Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, the two sides reportedly coordinated to fend off Iranian bombs that were sent toward Israel during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June.
“The Crown Prince has made a strategic decision to move in the direction of recognizing Israel,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO.
What’s more, the Saudis stand to benefit from normalizing ties with Israel, much as the current signatories of the Abraham Accords have. They would gain access to Israeli tech and security products, open links to Israeli investors and technology companies, and boost its tourism by opening its country up to Israeli visitors. And this isn’t to mention a preferable security agreement with the United States, which would likely be part of any peace deal with Israel.
Not so fast. There remain several risks for the Saudis in joining the Abraham Accords, per Ibish. For one thing, the Kingdom is a larger and more politically-complex state than the current signatories, making it harder to bring the various internal factions on board for a controversial deal with Israel. Further, the war in Gaza has heightened the Saudi public’s skepticism of Israel. Finally, Riyadh would risk its position as a leader of both the Arab and Muslim world if it normalized ties with the Jewish state, due to widespread opposition to such a move among the Arab public.
“You’ve got Saudi Arabia keenly protecting those interests,” said Ibish. “They would be compromised to some extent by recognition [of Israel].”
With Israel refusing to consider a two-state solution with the Palestinians, Ibish believes it’s unlikely that Saudi Arabia will normalize ties with the Jewish state. Nonetheless, Trump remains hopeful.
“I think that they’re going to all go in very soon,” the US leader told Fox News on Friday. “Wouldn’t it be nice?”
What We’re Watching: Tense Gaza ceasefire holding again, Trump pressed Zelensky on Donbas during Friday meeting, Japan to have first female PM
Displaced Palestinians live in tents near destroyed buildings as they cannot return to their houses, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, on October 19, 2025.
Ceasefire returns to Gaza after weekend exchange of fire
The US and the Israeli military said Sunday that the ceasefire is holding again in Gaza, after the two sides exchanged fire over the weekend in what was the biggest test so far of the peace plan signed last week. The flare up appeared to begin when Hamas militants – reportedly acting independent of the group’s leadership – hit Israeli soldiers with gunfire and anti-tank missiles, killing two soldiers. Israeli forces responded with a wave of airstrikes, killing 26 people, per local authorities. Israel said it bombed Hamas targets in the enclave, but one of the strikes hit a former school that was sheltering some displaced persons. The ceasefire remains a tenuous one, as Israel seeks the return of the remains of the last 16 hostages, while Hamas demands more aid. The next 30 days, per one US official, will be “critical.”
Trump presses Zelensky to cede Donbas in heated meeting
US President Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give up the Donbas region and accept a ceasefire deal on Friday, during a meeting that reportedly devolved into a “shouting match” where Trump echoed the talking points that Russian President Vladimir Putin made on their call the day before. Zelensky hoped the meeting would result in the US supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a request Trump denied. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will speak in the coming days to prepare a new Trump-Putin summit in the next few weeks – something Zelensky signaled he would be open to attending if invited.
Japan set to have first female PM
Sanae Takichi, elected leader of the center-right Liberal Democratic Party last week, is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister, after her party penned a coalition deal with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party on Monday. The agreement means Takichi will have just enough support when Parliament votes on her ascension tomorrow. The Japan Innovation Party replaces Komeito as the LDP’s coalition partner following outgoing PM Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to resign, meaning the government will take a more pro-business approach. Takichi won’t be the first female leader of Japan, though: Eight empresses have previously ruled over the island.