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Israel
Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters form a human chain in front of the crowd gathered near the family home of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, where the Hamas militant group prepares to hand over Israeli and Thai hostages to a Red Cross team in Khan Yunis, on January 30, 2025, as part of their third hostage-prisoner exchange..
Israel hunted Yahya Sinwar — the Hamas leader and mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack — for over a year. He was hidden deep within Gaza’s shadowy tunnel networks. Surrounded by guards and shielded by hostages, he remained untouchable — until he wasn’t. In Rafah last October, Sinwar was killed not in a targeted operation but during a routine skirmish with a patrol unit. It was only after the smoke cleared that Israeli troops even realized they had taken out their No. 1 enemy.
His death marked a turning point for Hamas, and the leadership role fell to his brother, Mohammed Sinwar, the chief planner behind Gaza’s tunnel infrastructure and Hamas’ former head of logistics and manpower. Six months into his leadership, the question looms: Where does the group stand today?
Then: Under Yahya Sinwar, Hamas operated from a position of relative strength, calculating that the time was right for the group to attack Israel, believing that Iran and Hezbollah would follow suit and that the humanitarian crisis that would inevitably follow in Gaza would only benefit Hamas by spurring international backlash against Israel.
Mohammed Sinwar assumed control of the group at a time of growing weakness. The wider regional response his brother had counted on never materialized. Iran is increasingly focused on domestic stability, and Hezbollah is now badly weakened. And while Israel has faced international criticism for its actions in Gaza, it continues to receive robust military support from key allies like the United States.
Now: Eighteen months into Israel’s ground campaign in Gaza, Hamas is militarily diminished, organizationally disjointed, and politically weak. Since the breakdown of a ceasefire in March, Israeli attacks on the enclave have resumed, and the already catastrophic humanitarian crisis has only deepened amid restricted aid deliveries.
“Hamas is less cohesive than it probably has been at any point in the last decade,” says Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiativeat the Atlantic Council. “There seem to be major shortages in their military arsenal.” Their only remaining leverage, he notes, is the 59 hostages still believed to be held in Gaza – of whom only around 24 are thought to be alive.
Yahya Sinwar was able to seamlessly coordinate between Hamas’ regional allies, its political arm — the Council of Five based in Doha, Qatar — and its fighters on the ground. However, under the leadership of his brother, that cohesion has broken down. Now, the Council, which would be central to any future ceasefire negotiations, is seen as “too far removed politically,” Panikoff says.
“They're not going to be able to control what happens on the ground in Gaza if there’s a disagreement between those on the ground in the strip and the Council.”
Since Hamas came to power in 2007, the group has maintained its grip by controlling access to jobs, presenting itself as the vanguard against Israeli occupation, and, of course, by having a zero-tolerance policy for dissent.
But in recent weeks, public frustration has begun to boil over. As the humanitarian crisis deepens, protests have erupted inside Gaza — most notably in early April, when hundreds of Palestinians marched through Beit Lahia in the North, demanding that Hamas relinquish control and end the war with Israel.
Still, Panikoff cautions against overstating the momentum behind the movement: “At the end of the day, it’s still Hamas that has the guns and the weapons. Even with protests, it’s hard to imagine the people of Gaza being able to mount a meaningful uprising.”
Inside Hamas, however, cracks may be forming. Panikoff notes that some within the lower ranks are ready for the war to end. “After a year and a half of fighting, weapons and ammunition are running low. Resupply from Iran is going to be harder than before. I have no doubt there are many who would prefer that Mohammed Sinwar cut a deal — release the hostages, bring Palestinian prisoners home, and move on.”
But Sinwar himself isn’t signaling that he is ready to listen to them anytime soon. While mediators from Qatar and Egypt put forward a new plan to end the conflict in Gaza last week, it hinges on Hamas relinquishing its arms and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, something that Panikoff says “will probably never be realistic.”
“We’re stuck in this cycle, and I don’t know how you get out of it.”
A member of the Syrian security forces gestures next to a vehicle at the entrance of the Druze town of Jaramana, following deadly clashes sparked by a purported recording of a Druze man cursing the Prophet Mohammad, which angered Sunni gunmen southeast of Damascus, Syria, on April 29, 2025.
10: At least 10 people were killed in sectarian clashes outside Damascus late Monday. The firefight erupted between pro-government Sunni fighters and gunmen belonging to the Druze minority after a Druze cleric was blamed for an audio recording that insulted the Prophet Muhammad. Containing sectarian violence is a top concern for the post-Assad government as it seeks to rebuild the war-torn country. In response to the violence and threats against the Druze minority, Israel conducted what it called a “warning operation” on Wednesday, targeting an armed group in Syria’s Damascus province.
24-36: Pakistan’s information minister claimed on Tuesday that the country has “credible intelligence” that India may launch a military strike within 24 to 36 hours. The warning follows India’s accusation that Pakistan-backed militants were responsible for an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last week that killed 26 tourists — a charge Islamabad denies.
2: Donald Trump on Monday reduced the tariff burden on US-based car manufacturers by ensuring that the 25% levies on vehicles and parts don’t pile on top of existing duties, such as those on imported steel and aluminum. He also provided tariff rebates on foreign parts to automakers operating in the US for a two-year period, giving them more time to shift their supply chains.
84: In Germany’s parliament late Tuesday, 84% of Social Democratic Party members strongly supported the party’s proposal to join a coalition government with the Christian Democratic bloc. Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right party that won the February election, is set to be officially appointed chancellor next week. His main priority? Reviving Germany’s struggling economy.
10,000: Roughly 10,000 cases of acute malnutrition have been registered among children in Gaza so far this year, according to a new UN report. Overall, about 60,000 children there are chronically underfed. Israel has blocked all aid deliveries to the enclave since March 2, saying that Hamas hijacks humanitarian convoys. Dozens of local and internationally run community kitchens have run out of supplies and been forced to close in recent weeks.
3: On Tuesday, after just three months of freedom, Cuban dissident Jose Daniel Ferrerwas arrested again on charges that he had violated his parole agreement. Ferrer, one of the few high-profile opponents of the island’s communist dictatorship, was released earlier this year as part of a Vatican-brokered deal. The Castro regime continues to wield significant influence in Cuba, even amid a crippling economic crisis that has driven more than a fifth of the population abroad since 2022.People gather after Friday prayers during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, in Amman, Jordan, on April 4, 2025.
Jordanian authorities announced on Wednesday the arrest of 16 people accused of planning terrorist attacks inside Jordan. The country’s security services say the suspects had been under surveillance since 2021, and half a dozen of them were reportedly members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist organization.
The Brotherhood, which has links to the Islamic Action Front, the largest opposition group in Jordan’s parliament, denies any involvement, and insists that it is "committed to its peaceful approach" to Jordan’s politics.
The story highlights underlying tensions in Jordan. The monarchy is a key US ally and aid-recipient, and it made peace with Israel in 1994. But Israel’s assault on Gaza in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks generated huge anger in Jordan, where nearly half of the country’s 11.5 million people are of Palestinian origin.
The Islamic Action Front’s ferocious criticism of both Israel and King Abdullah helped it to place first in last year’s election, though the country’s weak parliament remains dominated by pro-government parties.
The bottom line: Much media attention for Israel’s war with Hamas is focused on events in Gaza, but the conflict continues to reverberate around the Middle East. Jordan’s King Abdullah is walking a particularly fine line: how to project both stability and legitimacy as war rages across the border, and tensions run high at home.
Demonstrators clash with police during a protest for the release of hostages held in Gaza, outside the home of Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer in Jerusalem, Israel, on April 13, 2025.
Thousands of Israeli soldiers, senior military officials, former intelligence operatives, military reservists, and veterans organizations have called on Israel’s prime minister to strike a deal with Hamas to free the remaining 59 hostages the group holds.
Twenty-four of those captives, taken during the group’s October 7, 2023 rampage into Southern Israel, are believed still alive, although Hamas said it lost contact with one living US-Israeli hostage yesterday.
In a series of open letters, these groups accuse Benjamin Netanyahu of endangering Israel’s security. Some claim he’s continuing the war to appease the right-wing nationalist parties that help him remain prime minister.
A missive from special forces reservists published on Monday said the latest wave of Israeli assaults on Gaza, which began last month after phase one of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal lapsed, “is intended only to serve the political goals of the government and the criminal defendant who heads it.” This is a pointed reference to the corruption charges Netanyahu has faced since before the war. He effectively holds immunity against them so long as he is prime minister.
Netanyahu has denounced those protesting. They are “frustrated retirees”, he said, and “an extreme fringe group that is once again trying to break Israeli society from within.”
Recent polls report that about 70% of Israeli Jews favor a deal with Hamas to free the remaining hostages, even if that means ending the war.
The big question: How long can Netanyahu continue a policy that moves out of line with what a majority of Israeli Jews want?
Israeli police dispersed a demonstration in West Jerusalem in which Israelis gathered to demand an end to the ongoing Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip, on April 9, 2025.
23: An Israeli airstrike hit a residential area in northern Gaza on Wednesday, reportedly killing 23 people, according to local health officials. A Hamas-run health ministry said that eight women and eight children were among the dead. Israel said it had struck a senior Hamas militant. Meanwhile, in West Jerusalem, police dispersed demonstrators who gathered to protest the ongoing Israeli attacks in Gaza and the killing of Palestinian emergency workers.
8.5 million: As if US tariffs haven’t caused enough of a rollercoaster, Universal announced this week that it plans to build its first-ever European theme park in the United Kingdom and estimated that 8.5 million people will visit during its first year. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed the plans, saying the news even piqued his children’s interests. The plan is for the park to open in 2031.
500: As part of its clampdown against higher education, the Trump administration has now revoked visas from more than 500 foreign students in the United States, according to NAFSA, an association dedicated to international education. Universities have started warning foreign students and faculty against traveling abroad, as it could allow authorities to take away their visas.
1.2 million: North Korea’s army, totaling 1.2 million soldiers, is reportedly gaining invaluable experience of modern combat from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Twelve thousand of these North Korean fighters helped the Russian ranks beat back the Ukrainians in the Kursk region in December, and South Korea has claimed that another 3,000 North Koreans are joining the Russian frontlines this year.
30: More than 30 human rights groups are pressing the United Kingdom and the European Union to reverse the extradition of Egyptian activist Abdulrahman al-Qaradawi from Lebanon to the United Arab Emirates, where he faces charges of undermining public security, according to UAE state media. An Egyptian activist who has been critical of several Arab states, Qaradawi has reportedly been held in solitary confinement for three months, and he also faces an extradition demand from his home country.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a press briefing in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2025.
The militia commanders also said that the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, their prime supplier of weapons and money, had agreed to let local group leaders inside Iraq decide how best to respond to Trump’s threats. They are also reportedly mindful that the aggressive Israeli attacks in the region – particularly against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Red Sea, and in Syria – have forced militia groups to avoid conflict.
Though these militia moves are more likely a tactical retreat than a true surrender, any move to disarm would give the Trump administration a notable foreign-policy victory without an attack. The so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a group of about 10 heavily armed Shia militias with a total of 50,ooo fighters and access to heavy weapons, including long-range missiles, has attacked both Israeli and US military targets in the past.
It’s also a significant possible loss for Iran, which has seen its most powerful regional allies – Hezbollah, Bashar Assad’s government in Syria, Hamas, and Houthi rebels – take beatings in recent months.
Netanyahu and Trump to talk tariffs, terror, Turkey, and more at White House on Monday
President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the entrance of the White House in Washington, on Feb. 4, 2025.
Tariffs top the menu. The main event will be Trump’s 17% tariff on Israeli exports, which will hurt several of its key industries, including diamonds, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Israel had hoped to preempt additional levies by dropping all its tariffs on US goods last week, but Trump imposed them anyway, citing America’s trade deficit with Israel. Netanyahu hopes to be the first world leader to convince Trump to drop the new levies.
Gaza and the West Bank. Israel has intensified military operations in Gaza, deploying troops to establish the Morag Corridor to the south to pressure Hamas to release the remaining Israeli hostages. At the same time, tensions have been rising in the West Bank, where Israel is authorizing new settlements and being accused of the “Gazafication” of the territory. Bibi will be seeking continued support for Israel’s stance and is likely encouraged by Washington’s recent greenlighting of the export of 20,000 assault rifles, held up under the administration of Joe Biden for fear they might be used by extremist Israeli settlers.
Turkey, Iran, and the rest of the neighborhood. Netanyahu and Trump will also reportedly discuss Israel-Turkey relations and strategies concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and they may also touch on the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza – an issue that prompted Hungary to withdraw from the ICC last week. Trump sanctioned court officials during Netanyahu’s first White House visit in February – we’ll be watching to see if he takes further action this time.