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Major western countries are going to recognize Palestine for the first time. Here’s why it matters.
As leaders from around the world arrive in New York for this year's United Nations General Assembly, one of the thorniest global issues hangs over the proceedings.
“Palestine is going to be the elephant in the room,” said Palestinian ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour during an interview with GZERO this week in New York.
That’s because in the coming days several major Western powers are set to recognize Palestinian statehood for the first time. France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Malta will all take this step.
What does it mean to recognize Palestinian statehood? Palestine exists in a paradox: it enjoys international recognition from nearly 150 countries, which allows it to field Olympic teams, maintain diplomatic missions abroad, and participate –partially, as an observer state – at the UN. Yet it lacks agreed upon borders, an army or capital, or full sovereignty under Israel’s ongoing occupation. France, in its announcement of its intention to recognize Palestine, said it was doing so to “reaffirm the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination.” It also stressed that it was recognizing Palestinian Authority (PA), which is based in the West Bank, rather than Hamas, which rules Gaza, as having sovereignty over all of the Palestinian territories, because the PA “has come out strongly in favor of the two-State solution and peace.”
Why are they recognizing Palestine now? All of these countries have historically showed strong support for Israel, and none of them voted in favor of Palestine’s UN observer status more than a decade ago. But the scenes of starvation in Gaza and mounting anger over the ferocity of Israel's prolonged military campaign in response to the Oct. 7th attacks, have shifted public opinion in many of these countries. In the UK, polling has showed increasing sympathy for Palestine over Israel, rising from 15% following the Oct. 7 attacks to 37% as of July of 2025. Meanwhile, support for Israel has fallen to 15%, with 51% of Britons saying that its actions are unjustified.
“Millions of people in these nations are pressuring their governments to do more in order to stop the genocide,” says Mansour, “to recognize the legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people to self determination, to statehood and the right of the refugees.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has said recognizing a Palestinian state "rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims." The US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that "what destroyed the negotiations for the hostages was the European nations going and having this push for a unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state... it destroyed negotiations."
The US, consequently, has denied visas for over 80 Palestinian representatives, including Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The White House says Palestinian officials have undermined Gaza negotiations by appealing to international criminal courts that have accused Israel of war crimes and by seeking UN recognition.
Will this recognition have a real effect? Not on the ground, at least not immediately. The UN as such exerts little influence over Israel.
But the fact that powerful G7 countries have taken this step for the first time does signal a changing tide of opinion in the West, in particular among some of Israel’s staunchest backers.
It also gives Palestine the support of four of the UN Security Council's five permanent members – France, the UK, China, and Russia. That leaves the US, Israel's strongest ally by far, in a minority of one.
The moves come as Gaza negotiations are more stalled than ever. The Israeli military invaded Gaza City yesterday, and last week killed several senior Hamas leaders involved in negotiations in Qatar. Meanwhile, Hamas has shown no willingness to release the remaining Israeli hostages before there is a ceasefire.
Recognition or not, Mansour says a ceasefire remains the most important priority. “A ceasefire saves lives and potentially allows for the release of the hostages, but the continuation of the war takes lives and threatens the lives of the hostages.”
How will Israel's attack in Qatar strain US alliances?
In this episode of Ask Ian, Ian Bremmer unpacks Israel’s attack against Hamas leadership in Qatar.
“Recent attacks on Qatar, a major ally of the United States, didn’t succeed in taking out Hamas’ leadership,” Ian explains. But that move, he notes, has “agitated President Trump pretty significantly,” given America’s close ties to Qatar and the wider Gulf states.
While the US shows no signs of breaking from Israel, evidenced by refusing to grant visas to Palestinian officials, Ian warns that the Trump administration’s support carries risks. With Israel shifting from “deterrence to threat removal,” US allies like the UAE are drawing red lines, even threatening to exit the Abraham Accords, which Ian says "would be a big slap to President Trump directly."
What We’re Watching: Israel strikes Hamas leaders in Qatar, Nepal prime minister resigns, Norway election results
A damaged building, following an Israeli attack on Hamas leaders, according to an Israeli official, in Doha, Qatar, September 9, 2025.
Israel strikes Hamas leaders in Qatar
Israel on Monday conducted a brazen assassination attempt on senior Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital of Doha. As of now, their fate is unknown. Qatar and other Gulf Arab monarchies condemned the strike, which came as the Hamas leaders were discussing a Gaza ceasefire proposal from Donald Trump. The US president on Sunday had issued a “last warning” to Hamas to accept his terms, which he said Israel had agreed to. Israel says it carried out the operation entirely on its own, but what the US or others knew about it and when is a big question. Another question: will Qatar continue to act as a mediator between Israel and Hamas after this?
Nepal’s prime minister steps down amid growing protests
Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli resigned on Tuesday, while protestors set the parliament on fire and attacked politicians’ homes, a day after at least 19 demonstrators were killed on Monday in ongoing protests over corruption and a social media ban. Oli, the leader of Nepal’s Communist Party, has run the Himalayan nation for much of the last decade, and his exit leaves a dizzying power vacuum. The “Gen Z” protest movement wants youth representatives to lead an interim government. Army leaders have called for calm. But no one has stepped in with a plan, risking a deeper descent into violence.
Norway’s center-left party wins again
Norway’s governing Labor Party claimed victory in Monday’s general election, with the center-left bloc winning 87 of 169 seats. The campaign centered largely on the country’s wealth tax, which Labor vows to preserve. The result bucked the trend of establishment center-left incumbents getting hammered at the polls in Europe, but it also underscored the rising appeal of the right: Norway’s anti-immigration, Eurosceptic Progress Party surged to its best-ever result. Labor will now have to rely on a coalition of smaller left-wing parties to pass its agenda.
Is the US trying to topple Venezuela's leader?
In this episode of ask ian, Ian Bremmer breaks down the recent US military strike on a vessel leaving Venezuela and what it signals for the Trump administration’s broader strategy.
“The United States has now engaged in an initial strike claiming a drug enforcement mission,” Ian explains. But the scale of the operation tells another story: “Seven US warships, a nuclear submarine, over 2,000 Marines, and several spy planes…this is clearly not just a drug interdiction.”
Ian suggests the move could be the start of a blockade or even strikes on gangs and terrorist groups inside Venezuela. While some US officials have long pushed for Nicolás Maduro’s removal, he cautions against assuming regime change. Ian notes, “I’d be very surprised to see boots on the ground.”
The Venezuela policy, Ian remarks, stands in stark contrast to Trump’s approach in Israel, where the US government continues to provide funding and political support, an exception to his ‘America First’ stance.
As summer winds down this weekend, here are the geopolitical stories you may have missed while your inbox was on “out of office” — the ones we expect will have the biggest impact this fall.
In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly
Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes. But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the world’s deadliest, and least covered, conflicts: Sudan.
With drones now entering the fray, the conflict risks escalating into a dangerous new phase, allowing both sides to keep inflicting damage with minimal risks to themselves.
Ever since the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum in March, the two sides have been locked in a strategic stalemate, with drones enabling both groups to carry out precision strikes hundreds of miles behind enemy lines.
Is Sudan a sign of future of warfare? Read more here.
A surge of political violence has revived Colombia’s worst fears
When a gunman shot Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June, it sparked memories of the deadly decades-long internal conflict from late last century when political assassination attempts were a common occurrence.
Fast forward nearly three months, Uribe is now dead, and the violence between dissidents and the military has intensified – there have been multiple reports of mass kidnappings of government soldiers. Left-wing President Gustavo Petro has pledged to clamp down on the violence, but he can’t seem to put a lid on things: the number of kidnappings and killings of human rights activists have soared over the last few years.
This will likely cost the left, politically speaking. The rising violence is prompting more and more Colombians to seek a tough-on-crime leader, damaging Petro’s hopes that a socialist candidate will win next year’s presidential election – the incumbent leader can’t run again.
The shift in Colombia’s politics is also something of a proxy for the rest of South America. Other countries with left-wing leaders, like Bolivia and Chile, have also tilted right, seeking leaders who will keep them safe. Bolivians ousted the socialists from power for the first time in decades. Chile’s elections in November will be the next test for the South American left, before Colombia’s election next May.
Will the rising violence hurt the Colombian left? Read more here.
Is MAGA bailing on Bibi?
In early July, there were some rumblings of discontent within the Trump administration at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. An Israeli shell had struck a church in Gaza, settlers had attacked a Christian Palestinian village, and the Israeli Defense Forces had bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus – against the White House’s wishes.
But the disquiet was only the tip of the iceberg: Trump supporters, especially younger ones, are becoming more and more critical of Israel, questioning the US’s support for the Jewish State. Though younger Republicans aren’t nearly as critical as younger Democrats, this trend is a concerning one for Israel, as the country has relied heavily on US military aid. Republicans have been particularly sympathetic toward Israel in recent history, so to lose their backing would be drastic.
Soon after the piece was published, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – a MAGA firebrand – became the first House Republican to label Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “genocide,” affirming that the GOP is no longer united behind supporting Israel. Read the original GZERO report here.
Is AI why college grads can’t find jobs?
The kids are not alright. Since we opened the Pandora’s Box of chatbots, new grads have faced higher unemployment than the national average for the first time in decades. Which raises the question: are they the canaries in the coal mine that AI-driven job disruption has begun?
“It just seems like there’s not any more entry-level roles,” reports James Kettle, a 25-year-old Columbia University graduate who’s been on the job hunt since May. His experience is echoed in a new Stanford study, which found hiring in AI-exposed occupations for early-career workers is down 13%.
Even if we can’t be certain AI is totally to blame for stealing young people’s existing jobs (yet), it’s making it harder for them to get hired in the first place. Delia Thompson, a 23-year-old University of Virginia graduate who’s been on the hunt for seven months, describes the job process today as “shouting into the void,” as she and other candidates send thousands of AI-assisted resumes through LinkedIn, only for companies to use their own algorithms to sift through the pile – a loop of bots talking to bots. “It makes it feel like a total lottery,” says Thompson.
This is reshaping their political views and how many young people are viewing AI overall. Read more here.
What We’re Watching: Trump to talk Gaza plan, Niger’s anti-colonial crusade gives Russia an opening, Australia follows the money to Tehran
Palestinians wait to receive food from a charity kitchen in Gaza City, on August 27, 2025.
There is a US plan for Gaza
US President Donald Trump will convene a “large meeting” at the White House today to discuss a plan for managing Gaza once the war there ends. US special envoy Steve Witkoff even appeared to acknowledge that the US had a plan, adding that he hopes the war is resolved by the end of the year. The meeting comes as an inquest begins into Monday’s double Israeli strike on a hospital in Khan Younis that killed 20 people. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a “tragic mishap.”
Russia uses Niger to go nuclear on France and the West
Russia may be focused on its invasion of Ukraine, but that hasn’t stopped it from making other moves to weaken the West: Moscow has offered to build a nuclear power plant in Niger that could hurt parts of France’s nuclear industry. Niger, a uranium-rich nation in the Sahara Desert, has previously exported the metal to France for further refining, but the ruling military junta has been cutting ties with the former colonial power ever since overthrowing the government in 2023 – and Russia eyes an opportunity. The plan is fraught with challenges, though, and the plant may never come to fruition.
Australia identifies Iran funding to synagogue attackers
Australia is following the money in its investigation of the antisemitic attack on a Melbourne synagogue last year, with officials saying Wednesday that the funds that the alleged perpetrators received traced back to Iran. It’s possible that those charged didn’t even know Tehran was involved. This revelation comes after Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Tuesday that Iran orchestrated this terrorist attack, as well as another in Sydney. Australia isn’t the only country probing the role of Iran’s government in carrying out terrorism: British and Swedish security forces have also warned that the Islamic Republic were attempting to use proxies to commit attacks in their countries.
Despite the foot dragging and all the threats of taking over Gaza City, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will find his way to a ceasefire in Gaza this September. Here's why.
First, domestic pressure is growing. Israel is witnessing some of the largest street protests it's seen in the past two years. They're repetitive, they're consistent, they're ongoing. Second, there's growing international pressure. It is not only the Saudis that are leading the charge for recognition of a Palestinian state at the United Nations this September. It's also the French and the British and other European and Western allies of Israel. By signing on to a temporary ceasefire, Bibi can preclude some of that pressure.
There are also opportunities here. Netanyahu is better positioned against members of his own coalition who have been threatening to leave it if he signs onto that ceasefire, namely, ministers Ben Gvir, Smotrich are in a weaker position right now in the polls that they had been previously. They need him more than he needs them in the lead up to expected parliamentary elections next year.
There's also President Trump and rumors around Washington have it that he will be willing to visit Israel after a stopover in the UK on the 17th to the 19th of September if in fact Bibi finds his way to that temporary ceasefire. And lastly, what Hamas is putting on the table here is an acceptance of the American plan, otherwise known as the Witkoff plan named after the American envoy who tabled it last spring, but couldn't get itself to accept it. So for Bibi not to accept an American plan that he signed off on back in spring is counterintuitive.
So for all those reasons, we think that there will be a temporary ceasefire in September. It's not a total end to the war. It's a 60-day reprieve. Israel can find itself back at war in Gaza, perhaps occupying the entire strip. That will be the negative and brutal scenario. One would hope that diplomacy will find a way and will reign supreme by the end of that 60-day ceasefire.