For sixteen years, Viktor Orbán has dominated Hungarian politics, rewriting rules, consolidating power, and positioning himself as Europe's leading nationalist and Donald Trump's closest ally on the continent. But with parliamentary elections approaching on April 12th, his aura of invincibility is finally cracking. Opposition candidate Péter Magyar, a conservative former Orbán insider, is polling ahead by double digits, and the Trump administration is scrambling to help keep its favorite European in office.
Krastev explains what most Americans get wrong about Orbán: that his real economic patron isn't Trump but China. Chinese investment in Hungary now exceeds Chinese investment in Germany and France combined, and Beijing's interest is straightforward: Orbán's willingness to veto any EU anti-China policy. Krastev also breaks down Orbán's ideological roots, arguing he is far closer to Putin than to Trump, anchored in 19th-century Hungarian nationalism and the grief of a nation that lost everything after World War I.
Together, Krastev and Bremmer look ahead to what an Orbán loss would mean for Europe's far-right parties, for EU policy on Ukraine, and for Trump's own political brand. "For President Trump and for President Putin," Krastev says, "Orbán losing is going to be their personal loss." And if Trump's oldest, best-known European ally falls, being backed by Washington may soon be worth far less than it once was.
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