Watching/Ignoring

​​​​​​WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

China’s Secret Weapons — US chipmaker Qualcomm abandoned a $44 billion deal to buy Dutch counterpart NXP on Wednesday after a deadline passed with no word from China’s antitrust regulators. Beijing’s approval was the only obstacle holding up the merger. The White House had lobbied hard for this deal, and President Trump spent plenty of political capital bailing out ZTE, a Chinese tech giant pushed to the brink of bankruptcy by US penalties. The saga is another reminder that the US-China trade war isn’t just about tariffs, and that both countries have many weapons at their disposal. The risk of escalation has just gone up.


Zimbabwe’s Election — Since independence in 1980, Zimbabwe has never had an election without Robert Mugabe. That streak will end on Monday. And this will be a vote worth watching. All political parties have been able to hold rallies without police interference, and US an European election observers have been welcomed for the first time in 16 years. In addition, Zimbabwe’s Electoral Commission says its new fingerprint ID system will help prevent the cheating that has marred past elections.

US politics adrift — A vandal attacked Donald Trump’s star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame with a pickaxe this week, and someone reportedly boarded and set adrift a $40 million 163-foot yacht owned by Trump administration official Betsy DeVos. Some will find these stories funny. Others, like your Friday author, believe there are 100,000 legitimate forms of protest, and vandalism is not one of them. It’s also the last thing the current US political climate needs.

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

Steve Bannon — First came news the most overrated man in Washington was headed to Europe to launch a pan-European far-right political movement. Because Europeans who win votes with anti-American rhetoric badly need American help. Then came word that Bannon is in regular contact with former UK foreign minister and political bad boy Boris Johnson. Add Nigel Farage, and we’ll have that scene at the end of the film This Is Spinal Tap where the washed-up metal band reunites for a tour of Japan.

Zuckerberg’s Taste in Art — Facebook is having an awful week, but here’s yet another reason why it’s hard to sympathize. The Flemish tourist board accused Facebook this week of censoring a number of posts featuring paintings by Flemish masters—apparently because they included nudity. Let’s be crystal clear: Your Friday author is no fan of all those pudgy little cherubs Rubens has inflicted on us, but Zuckerberg better not be messing with Breughel the Elder.

Putin’s Inflatable Trojan Horse? — A soccer ball Vladimir Putin gave Donald Trump during their Helsinki summit reportedly contains a chip that can transmit information to nearby cell phones. (For the record, this is not satire). We’re ignoring this story because Trump’s well-known aversion to sports that provoke perspiration suggests Russian intelligence is much more likely to learn what 12 year-old Barron Trump wants for dinner than any presidential secrets.

Demography is destiny. That ominous-sounding pronouncement, credited to French philosopher Auguste Comte, is today taken to mean that a nation's fate depends on the youthfulness of its population. For a poor country to become rich, it needs lots of young people ready to work, to support those too old or too young to work, and to pay taxes. This is called the "demographic dividend."

That's an important part of China's success story. Over the past 40 years, more than one billion people have emerged from poverty in China. Waves of young people surged from the countryside into cities to work in factories. The state invested in education, and wages helped young workers, and then their children, go to school. The state also began a drive to develop the technologies of the future, by any means necessary. In China, once dirt-poor, hundreds of millions have created a middle class.

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Get insights on the latest news about emerging trends in cyberspace from Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford University's Cyber Policy Center and former European Parliamentarian:

This week we talk about one of my favorite topics, regulation. Laws are often framed as a barrier to innovation and not always recognized as a key enabler of freedoms and the protection of rights. But what's more is that regulation is a process, and one that can have tons of different outcomes. So, being in favor or against regulation doesn't mean anything. Except that those who oppose any changes are apparently benefiting from the status quo.

Is the world at a tipping point when it comes to regulating big tech?

And I would say absolutely. The outsized power of big tech is recognized more broadly because the harms are so blatantly clear. Harms to democracy, public health, but also to fairness in the economy are all related to the outsized power of unaccountable and under-regulated big tech. Now, what's significant is that this debate has finally hit home in the United States after it was already recognized as a problem in many other parts of the world.

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Do we spend too much time thinking about our own carbon footprints and not enough time thinking about bigger factors? Climate journalist Elizabeth Kolbert acknowledges it's necessary for individuals to make changes in the way they live, but that isn't the number one priority.

"What would you do to try to move this battleship in a new direction? It requires public policy levers. And it requires … some pretty serious legislation." Ian Bremmer spoke with Kolbert, an award-winning journalist and author and staff writer at The New Yorker, on a new episode of GZERO World, airing on US public television.

Watch the episode: Can We Fix the Planet the Same Way We Broke It?

Not everyone thinks that President Biden's decision to pull all US troops out of Afghanistan by 9/11/21 is a good idea. Conservative Congressman Mike Waltz (R-FL), a combat-decorated Green Beret with multiple tours in Afghanistan, thinks that the US still needs to maintain a small presence in the country to avoid incurring "massive risks." In a spirited discussion with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, Waltz, who served as counterterrorism advisor in the George W. Bush administration, argues, "The next 9/11, the next Pulse Night Club, which is right on the edge of my congressional district, the next San Bernardino, that's now on Biden's watch. He owns it with this decision." Their conversation is featured in the upcoming episode of GZERO World, which airs on US public television starting Friday, April 23. Check local listings.

Vaccines are the best hope to end the COVID-19 pandemic. But rich countries are hogging most of the doses, with more than 83 percent of shots administered to date having gone to residents in high- and upper-middle-income countries. Most poor countries will have to wait years to achieve widespread vaccination, according to one study.

To address this inequity some stakeholders are pushing hard for waivers to intellectual-property (IP) rights through World Trade Organization trade rules so that manufacturers in poorer countries can make their own vaccines locally. India and South Africa have been leading the charge, which would essentially mean that deep-pocketed pharma companies like New York-based Pfizer, for instance, would have to hand over the keys to the kingdom, allowing local companies in New Delhi and Johannesberg to make generic versions of their vaccines.

Unsurprisingly, the debate has gotten fiery, with passionate arguments emerging both for and against.

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Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:

What are the Russians up to against Ukraine?

We simply don't know, except the fact that they're concentrating a huge amount of military forces. And you don't do that for nothing or for fun. They are there for a purpose, to have pressure or to undertake limited to larger operations. We simply don't know. And when Putin delivered his State of the Union speech the other day, he didn't say a thing about this. They are now talking about withdrawing the forces. But let's wait and see. They have talked about withdrawing forces from Syria for a long time, but we haven't seen that as of yet.

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Australia rips up Belt & Road deal: Australia cancelled two 2018 deals signed between Victoria, Australia's wealthiest state, and the Chinese government, that committed the two sides to working together on initiatives under China's Belt and Road infrastructure development program. Foreign Minister Marise Payne said that the agreements "were adverse to our foreign relations." Similar deals between Victoria and institutions in Iran and Syria were also abandoned by the Australian government this week, under a 2020 law that allows Canberra to nullify international agreements struck at local and state level. (Australian universities say the "foreign veto bill" amounts to "significant overreach.") Meanwhile, Beijing hit back, calling the move "unreasonable and provocative," and accusing Canberra of further stoking divisions after a series of escalatory moves by both sides that have seen China-Australia relations deteriorate to their worst point in decades. Chinese investment in Australia dropped by 62 percent last year, a massive blow for Australia's export-reliant economy.

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