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Scotland's First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) Leader Nicola Sturgeon.
What We’re Watching: Sturgeon's resignation, NATO-Nordic divide, India vs. BBC, Tunisia’s tightening grip
Nicola Sturgeon steps down
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced on Wednesday that she is stepping down. She’s been in the role for over eight years, having taken power after the failed 2014 independence referendum. Speaking from Edinburgh, Sturgeon said she’d been contemplating her future for weeks and knew "in my head and in my heart" it was time to go. A longtime supporter of Scottish independence, Sturgeon was pushing for a new referendum, which was rejected by the UK’s top court late last year. In recent weeks, she and her colleagues had been debating whether the next national election in 2024 should be an effective referendum on independence. Sturgeon will stay in power until a successor is elected — likely contenders include John Swinney, Sturgeon’s deputy first minister, Angus Robertson, the culture and external affairs secretary, and Kate Forbes, the finance secretary.
Turkey divides Finland and Sweden
On Tuesday, NATO and other Western officials publicly acknowledged for the first time that Finland and Sweden might join the transatlantic alliance at different times, a notable public admission that negotiations with Turkey over Sweden’s NATO accession haven’t gone well. Neither Nordic country can become an alliance member without unanimous support from all existing members, and NATO-member Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a beef with Sweden. Erdogan is angry that Sweden’s government has provided asylum for dozens of Kurdish leaders he considers terrorists, and it didn’t help when a right-wing activist burned a Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, an act Sweden’s government treated as an offensive act of free speech that’s protected by law. Erdogan may also see a political opportunity to boost his reelection chances by defying European leaders in general and Sweden in particular. (Turkey’s elections are expected in May or June.) For NATO, Finland’s membership is arguably the more urgent priority. Though Sweden monitors occasional Russian naval intrusions into its territorial waters, it’s Finland that shares an 810-mile land border with Russia. European leaders hope that, if Erdogan wins his election, a deal can be cut in the coming months to allow Sweden to join the club.
India takes aim at BBC
Indian tax officials raided the BBC’s local offices on Tuesday in what they said was a probe into the British broadcaster’s business practices. But the move comes amid a broader government campaign to censor a new BBC documentary about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s role in anti-Muslim riots that killed more than 1,000 people in the state of Gujarat while he was governor in 2002. Modi has always denied stoking – or neglecting – the violence, and India’s Supreme Court has reached a similar conclusion. In the weeks since the doc aired in the UK, Modi’s government has cracked down swiftly in India, blocking it from being viewed online in the country, halting screenings at Indian universities, and forcing both Twitter and YouTube to remove it locally. Modi has often used internet laws to muzzle criticism, and tax officials have searched critical media outlets before. Last year the subcontinent slipped eight points to 150 out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index. How will the UK government respond?
Tunisia crackdown intensifies
Robocop is not messing around now. Tunisian President Kais Saied, whose monotone style earned him that nickname, has unleashed a ferocious crackdown on his critics and opponents in recent days. On Tuesday, sweeping arrests ensnared the leader of Ennahda, an opposition Islamist movement that once held power in the country. Saied, a constitutional lawyer who was elected as an outsider candidate in 2019, has led a massive overhaul of Tunisia’s government, diminishing the power of the legislature and the courts. He says he’s trying to make government more decisive and efficient in the only country that emerged from the Arab Spring with a democracy. His critics say he is plunging the country of 12 million right back into an authoritarian winter. See our full profile of Saied here.
Can a dictator make democracy work for Tunisia?
The birthplace of the Arab Spring and the only country to emerge from it as a democracy — albeit an imperfect one — is now well on its way to becoming something … different.
An exit poll shows that more than 90% of Tunisians who voted in a referendum Monday approved new constitution that critics say is anything but democratic, mainly because it gives more power to the president at the expense of parliament and the judiciary. Not so, argues President Kais Saied, who claims the 2014 charter gave too much power to lawmakers and judges in the North African country of 12 million.
Turnout, as expected, was low. That's no surprise given that most opposition groups boycotted the referendum. But only 27.5% of voters showing up means that Saied — who refused to set a minimum threshold for the result to be binding — can hardly claim a popular mandate for constitutional change.
How did we get here? Exactly one year ago, Tunisia was suffering the worst political, social, and economic crisis of its democratic era.
COVID infections were soaring, the economy was going nowhere, inequality was rising, public services were hard to come by, and one-third of young Tunisians were unemployed. Democracy had failed to deliver on its promise of a better life due to fragmented parliaments, political infighting, and rampant corruption.
Saied decided to intervene by firing the government and suspending the legislature. Since then, he's doubled down on his emergency powers, ruling by decree and going after his critics, mainly the moderate Islamist political party Ennadha and the judiciary, which the president believes is in cahoots with politicians and the business elite.
But the Tunisian leader's authoritarian vibes don’t jive with his low-key persona. Far from appearing like a fearsome tyrant, Saied is a bookish former constitutional law professor in his seventies known as Robocop — not for being tough on crime, but rather for his stiff speeches delivered in monotone classic Arabic instead of the Tunisian dialect.
Still, he's gone from being elected in 2019 as a political outsider with more than 70% of the vote to dividing his people.
His supporters view Saied as a hero for "challenging the status quo" of corruption and political stagnation, says Eurasia Group analyst Sofia Meranto. For them, he's being decisive and "maintaining a sufficient veneer of doing things by the book" according to his unique legal interpretation of the same constitution he wants to ditch.
The president's detractors, however, resent him for chipping away at the pillars of a system "they have been building for more than a decade, even if it wasn't perfect," Meranto explains. In their view, Saied is "diluting the checks and balances" of the parliamentary democracy that Tunisians fought for in the Arab Spring.
Has the authoritarian-democratic experiment worked so far? Depends on whom you ask.
The president's fans say he’s dismantling a dysfunctional political system that wasn't doing anything to solve the country's problems. They love his populist gestures like demanding that tycoons cough up billions of dollars he claims they looted from the state to avoid prosecution for embezzlement.
Saied's opponents, meanwhile, claim the economy is in even worse shape than when the president seized power. Inflation is hovering above 8%; debt, pensions, and subsidies are draining state coffers; and the government is at serious risk of default if it doesn’t get an IMF bailout soon.
In the middle are many Tunisians with a high level of political apathy who were initially willing to give Saied a chance but have since soured on him over the economy, says Meranto. Some were not even aware of the referendum, which in part explains the low turnout.
What comes next? Undeterred by the low turnout, Saied will surely push ahead to hold parliamentary elections by the end of the year, the next phase of his plan to “break with the past.” But he has yet to publish the electoral law, and the new charter has watered down the power of lawmakers.
Tunisia will "try to muddle through" the next few months despite the worsening economic crisis and perhaps some social upheaval ahead of the December polls, says Meranto. The bigger problem is that with so many Tunisians having checked out of politics, the country might be sleepwalking into autocracy.Protesters rally agains the constitutional referendum in Tunis.
What We're Watching: Tunisian referendum, Lavrov on African tour
Tunisia holds constitutional referendum
Tunisians go to the polls Monday to vote in a referendum over the new constitution pushed by President Kais Saied. The vote is scheduled on the first anniversary of Saied sacking the government and suspending parliament in the only country that emerged a democracy from the Arab Spring. At the time, he justified the move as necessary to prevent a bigger crisis, but his opponents called it a coup; since then, Saied has consolidated power by taking it away from any institution or group that challenged him, including judges and trade unions. The president's growing dictator vibes have upset many Tunisians who initially supported him, but he still has fans among younger people tired of corruption and dysfunctional parliamentary politics. Most opposition groups have boycotted the plebiscite, so the "yes" vote is likely to win (albeit with a low turnout). If the new charter is approved, Saied promises to hold legislative elections within six months. But they'll be less decisive under the revised constitution, which vastly expands presidential power at the expense of parliament and the judiciary.
Russia reassures African friends
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in Africa this week with a double mission: shore up Moscow's ties across the continent and fight criticism that the invasion of Ukraine has triggered a global food crisis that's hitting Africa hard. Lavrov touched down Sunday in Egypt and will later go to Ethiopia, Uganda, and the Republic of Congo. Egypt is the largest global importer of Russian and Ukrainian wheat, while some 40% of Africa’s wheat comes from both countries. For the most part, African countries haven’t taken sides in the war, but Russia’s blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea has made it impossible for Ukraine to export wheat by sea to Africa and the Middle East. In recent years, the Kremlin has sought to expand its African footprint by courting nations across the continent with weapons, energy, and commodities deals (along with Russian mercenaries to back some of the regimes it supports). But many African countries are wary, especially as Russia's weekend airstrikes in Odesa threatened a long-sought deal to resume Ukrainian wheat exports signed on Friday. No worries, says Lavrov, who insists Russia will deliver on guaranteeing grain shipments to its African clients.British PM Boris Johnson leaves 10 Downing Street for PMQs at the House of Commons on February 02, 2022 in London, England.
What We’re Watching: Boris no-confidence vote looms, Robocop vs Tunisian judges
Getting to 54. Boris Johnson is the famous comeback kid of British politics. But he may be running out of options given his myriad scandals. A wave of high-profile resignations and defections within the Conservative Party and the departure of five senior staffers have increased the likelihood that the embattled PM will soon face a no-confidence vote. Tory MPs who’ve soured on Johnson believe they are only a dozen signed letters away from the 54 needed to trigger the process as early as this week. Meanwhile, there’s growing pressure to release an unredacted version of the Gray Report about multiple parties held at 10 Downing Street during COVID lockdowns. If the full report confirms Johnson lied to parliament about attending one of the parties, expect a lot more than 54 votes to give him a pink slip.
Tunisian judicial independence. President Kaïs Saïed has announced plans to dissolve the independent judicial watchdog in Tunisia, the only country to emerge from the Arab Spring as a democracy. Saïed claims the Supreme Judicial Council is biased and corrupt, but opponents say he is going too far this time in a bid to consolidate his power. On Sunday, the streets of Tunis saw rival protests between Saïed supporters and critics. The president — known as “Robocop” for his monotone speech — earlier called a constitutional referendum for July 25, the one-year anniversary of his takeover. Although that intervention was welcomed by many Tunisians tired of corruption and mismanagement, getting rid of independent judges gives fodder to those who resent Saïed’s authoritarian turn.
How long will COVID-fueled inflation last?
Everybody's talking about inflation these days. Rising prices are affecting people from all walks of life, all around the world.
In the US, buying a used car now costs on average 45 percent more than it did in January. Europeans are bracing for a tough winter with soaring natural gas prices that come at the worst possible time.
Asian investors mentioned the word "inflation" on calls this quarter the most times since 2003, when the SARS epidemic battered China's economy. In Lebanon, whose annual rate of inflation is now the world's highest, surpassing Venezuela and Zimbabwe, most people buy local not to support local businesses but rather because they can't afford imports.
Inflation, however, isn't always bad, and is actually a sign of a healthy economy as long as it stays around an annual 1.5-2 percent. But now in most countries it's creeping up too much due to the economic fallout from the ongoing pandemic.
Eighteen months later, demand is booming. Consumers have a lot more cash burning in their wallets than a year ago because they didn't spend much at all in 2020. Businesses too are humming again, and need energy and raw materials to keep their plants running and products delivered on time.
But the real problem is on the supply side. Persistent COVID-related disruptions to supply chains mean there's simply not enough stuff, or you can't get it as fast as you'd like. When you can, it's gotten more expensive, and as the added costs get tacked on, the price of everything goes up.
For instance, a new car has become a luxury all around the world due to a global shortage of semiconductors. If you're in the market for a new house or want to build a factory, prices are going through the roof and projects are getting delayed because building materials — particularly those sourced from overseas, which is the case for most countries — are scarce and will take longer to acquire.
Meanwhile, inflation is fast becoming a global political headache.
Most Brazilians blame President Jair Bolsonaro for the rise in their cost of living. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already fired two central bank governors since the pandemic began because they opposed the big stimulus spending he needs to stay popular while the country's currency plummets and inflation remains sky-high. Tunisia's President Kais Saied is also feeling the heat after having had little success persuading businesses to lower their surging prices.
US President Joe Biden's ambitious plans to expand the country's social safety net could get tanked by moderate Democrats who fear investing $3.5 trillion now will spur more inflation just as the economy is stabilizing, and have Republicans on their side. But there's also a bipartisan generational divide: a survey commissioned by the Federal Reserve shows that retiring boomers — many still traumatized by the 1970s "stagflation" period of low economic growth coupled with double-digit inflation — are a lot more worried about inflation than younger Americans.
Still, there's little that can be done right now to fix the problem from the supply side. Central banks raising interest rates could temper demand, removing some of the pressure on prices, but it won't move the needle on inflation from messed-up supply chains while COVID lingers.
Moreover, when governments do intervene on supply by restricting exports that other countries need, for instance Argentinian beef or Russian wheat, it makes things worse because such distortions may provide some short-term relief but in the long term only further increase demand — and therefore costs for everyone. (This, along with several climate-related droughts, explains why global food prices are now rising at the highest pace since 2007, when food riots sparked a wave of social unrest across parts of Africa and Asia.)
Inflation clearly wasn't a blip, but most economists say we shouldn't panic (yet). Inflation, they say, will likely return to target levels once the pandemic is behind us. But as long as COVID stays, so will its disruptor effect on all economies. So perhaps the way out of today's inflation is to get vaccines everywhere.
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COVID vaccine mandates are coming; political instability in Tunisia
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:
As COVID-19 cases rise, are vaccine mandates coming?
Oh, you just want to get me in more trouble. Yeah, some mandates are coming, but they're not national mandates in the United States. In some cases, you're looking at federal and state employees, in some cases you're looking at lots of individual corporations, universities, and such. I mean I've already been to a number of events where vaccines have been mandated in New York. You've got this Excelsior Pass if you want to go to the Brooklyn Nets games, as I certainly do. You show it off and that gets you in with your vaccine. So I think it's really going to be a decentralized process. But clearly, given Delta variant and the number of people that are getting sick and dying because they're not vaccinated, you're going to see moves towards more mandates, as a consequence.
What's happening in Tunisia and how will it affect the broader region?
Well, massive unlimited employment, lots of corruption from the government and also COVID on top of all of that. And just, remember this was the one country that kind of successfully had a transition during the Arab Spring and didn't revert to authoritarianism. But it's a weak constitution, there's lots of open contestations in terms of what some of these rules really mean, who has power, what the separation of powers look like. And what ended up occurring was the president sacked the prime minister and suspended parliament and used the military in so doing. And it's absolutely unclear he has a constitutional mandate to do so. A lot of people demonstrating saying, this is awesome. A lot of people demonstrating saying this is illegal and a coup. The United States in contact with the president and expressing both concern but also support in this early day. Economically these guys are in a lot of trouble and political stability kind of doesn't exist right now. So look, lots of countries around the world on the back of COVID going to experience much more political instability, Tunisia leading the pack in North Africa right now.
Are you watching the Olympics? What's your favorite event?
I've been watching a little bit of the Olympics, it is in Tokyo. I turned on the NBC coverage late evening the other day. Have to say my favorite event for Summer Olympics has to be the gymnastics. And it's really sad to see the United States unable to pull off the gold to the team that was formerly known as Russia, but has had their name suspended because of all of the doping. And very sad to see Simone Biles who is in a league of her own on planet have to pull out for medical reasons. But still I think the Olympics... I've always been a fan of the Olympics. I like anything that brings the world together and has us root for humanity. That's harder to find these days and any excuse we have, I'm all for it.
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People celebrate in the Avenue Habib Bourguiba after Tunisian President Kais Saied announced to assume executive authority in addition to suspending parliament and Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi's government in Tunis, Tunisia on July 25, 2021.
The only Arab Spring success story on the brink
Tunisia, the only country that emerged a democracy from the Arab Spring, is now in the middle of its worst political crisis since it got rid of former autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali over a decade ago.
On Sunday, the 64th anniversary of the country's independence from France, President Kais Saied responded to widespread protests over the ailing economy and COVID by firing embattled Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspending parliament for 30 days. Troops have surrounded the legislature, where rival crowds faced off on Monday, with one side chanting in support of the move and the other denouncing it as a coup.
How did we get here, do we even know who's really in charge, and what might come next?
Tunisians are fed up. Over the past year, Tunisians have repeatedly taken to the streets in the largest numbers in a decade to decry the stagnant economy, rising inequality, inadequate public services, and dwindling job opportunities for young people (even before the pandemic, youth unemployment was already at 36 percent, the highest rate in North Africa.) Young Tunisians led the protests, often battling trigger-happy police.
COVID, of course, made everything worse. It crushed Tunisia's labor-intensive tourism industry, and forced thousands of Tunisian migrants to hop on boats across the Mediterranean headed for Europe via Italy, which saw a five-fold increase in arrivals in 2020. Right now, COVID infections rates are soaring while barely 7 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated.
More broadly, the people feel politicians remain as corrupt as they were under Ben Ali, and have failed to deliver on the promise of democracy to provide a better life for ordinary Tunisians. Trust in the system has plunged after highly fragmented parliaments have created a series of fragile coalition governments that slow-walk meaningful reforms, leaving the country in economic stagnation and a permanent political stalemate.
Constitutional crisis. Saied's sudden move has created a constitutional crisis because it's unclear he had the authority to dissolve the government on his own.
A former constitutional law professor who was elected as an independent in late 2019 to root out endemic corruption, the president says he's within his constitutional powers to govern by decree until he appoints a new PM. It's an unusually out-of-character performance by Saied, who styles himself as a moderate statesman and whom many Tunisians jokingly refer to as "Robocop" for putting audiences to sleep with his monotone delivery during speeches.
However, the moderate Islamist Ennadha party, as the largest force in parliament and the coalition government, insists it must nominate the next prime minister. (Ennadha — which was banned by Ben Ali for being inspired by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood — has always been part of democratic coalition governments and won the 2019 parliamentary election, but fell short of an outright majority.)
The problem is that the separation of powers under Tunisia's mixed presidential-parliamentary system is somewhat confusing: just weeks ago, Saied and Mechichi were squabbling about who controls internal security amid the former's broader plans to reform the constitution. Interestingly, the constitution says a special court should resolve those disputes… but (surprise!) the executive and legislative powers still haven't agreed on how to set it up.
Next moves. Whether you think it's a power grab or a necessary intervention to address a crisis, Saied's action has captured the zeitgeist by moving against a political establishment that most Tunisians have long resented. However, it's hard to imagine how he will be able to govern once he restores parliament because he doesn't have a party of his own. As president, he controls the military, but the reformist Robocop would rather make Tunisian democracy work than become dictator of a police state.
At a minimum, the situation creates more urgency for Tunisia's politicians to fix a system that — imperfect as it may be — gives the people a lot more of a say than in any other country that experienced the Arab Spring.