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Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with local officials in Sevastopol, Crimea March 18, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Putin in Mariupol, Xi in Moscow, Israeli-Palestinian talks, Trump fearing arrest, Kosovo-Serbia agreement
A defiant Putin heads to Mariupol
Vladimir Putin visited the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine on Sunday, two days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for both him and Russia’s children’s commissioner for the mass abduction of at least 1,400 Ukrainian children. The court claims that some Ukrainian orphans have been forcibly resettled with Russian families, while others were sent to “re-education camps” in Russia with their parents' consent but have not been returned.
This is the closest Putin has gotten to the front lines since the war began in Feb. 2022. The strategic city of Mariupol, which became a symbol of Ukraine’s protracted struggle after Russian forces started pounding the city at the start of the war, was taken last May in a brutal offensive that killed at least 20,000 people.
Putin’s Mariupol visit came a day after his stop in Crimea, where he marked the ninth anniversary of Russia's annexation of the territory — and both publicized visits likely served as symbolic shows of defiance against both the ICC and the West.
While Putin is unlikely to be in the dock anytime soon, the ICC warrant is a major geopolitical blow for the Kremlin. It increases Putin's physical isolation – Germany, for example, has already said he’ll be arrested if he visits -- and it's less than ideal for him to be labeled a war criminal as he tries to keep nonaligned countries onside.
Xi's choice
China’s Xi Jinping on Monday touched down in Moscow for his first trip since Russia invaded Ukraine. The stakes, to put it mildly, are pretty high.
As the US continues to fret that China might abandon its so-called "pro-Russia neutrality” in the conflict to arm the Russians, Xi says he only wants peace. Likely emboldened by the success of China's role in mediating a recent détente between longtime foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing sees an opening to cast itself as a global peacemaker in Ukraine. But Xi's 12-point peace plan was rejected outright by NATO, while Ukraine says it is open to Chinese mediation but will not compromise with Russia on its territorial integrity. (This week, China's leader also intends to speak with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the war started.)
And what about Vladimir Putin? Before Xi's arrival, the Russian president put on a show of affection for his "good old friend." After all, Xi has met Putin more times than any other world leader since he came to power in 2013. But as the war drags on with no end in sight, Putin knows that Xi must now decide whether to risk a full-blown proxy conflict with the US to help Russia win at all costs ... or rather give Putin an off-ramp to end the war the Ukrainians will accept.
Israeli-Palestinian de-escalation talks
With Ramadan starting later this week, Palestinian and Israeli mediators met on Sunday in the Egyptian town of Sharm el-Sheikh – along with Jordanian, Egyptian, and US representatives – to try and de-escalate tensions in Israel and the West Bank.
After talks in Jordan last month failed to make progress, this weekend's summit aimed to halt the cyclical flare-ups at flashpoint sites that Jerusalem has seen during Ramadan and Passover in recent years.
Both sides agreed on Sunday to set up a mechanism to thwart violence. But reports of a shooting near the town of Huwara in the northern West Bank, which gravely injured one Israeli, cast doubt on the success of the talks. Indeed, it’s the same town where two Jews were killed in a Palestinian terror attack several weeks ago, prompting Jewish settlers to pillage the village and burn scores of Palestinian homes in retaliation.
Crucially, the most recent shooting came after reports that a senior member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad was assassinated in Syria. Still, Israel committed “to stop discussion of any new settlement units for four months.” But that doesn’t necessarily mean much: The same sentiment appeared in a communique after last month’s meeting, but PM Benjamine Netanyahu then came out and said that his right-wing government was not committed to a settlement freeze.
Meanwhile, inside Israel, nationwide protests against the government’s proposed judicial reforms, now in their eleventh week, show no signs of abating. In a phone call with his Israeli counterpart on Sunday, President Biden too expressed deep concern over the judicial overhaul.
Will Trump be arrested?
ALL CAPS are back! Taking to social media on Saturday, former President Donald Trump called on his supporters to take to the streets, claiming that he would be indicted by a grand jury in New York, and arrested, in the coming days.
Writing on Truth Social – his own social media platform – Trump said that he’ll likely be detained on Tuesday on charges linked to a 2016 payment to an adult film star in violation of campaign finance rules.
Though it’s widely assumed that an indictment against Trump, who recently turned down an opportunity to testify before a grand jury, could be imminent, the Manhattan district attorney’s office has remained mum on details.
Still, the DA is clearly worried about the fallout and has urged staff not to be intimidated by the former president’s social media shtick. New York City police are also on high alert to ensure the DA's office is protected.
We’re watching to see how other Republican presidential candidates react to the developments. While Trump’s legal woes could help his opponents, dissing the former president might not land well with much of the GOP base.
Kosovo and Serbia take the next step
Serbia and Kosovo reached a tentative agreement on Saturday to implement an EU-backed deal to normalize relations after years of tensions threatened to reignite war. Sound convoluted? Well, it is.
The two sides began negotiating with the EU shortly after Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008. (For background on the conflict and where things currently stand, see our explainer here.)
While EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell said a deal had been reached, both sides said big disagreements remain. Essentially, the two sides agreed they would maintain “good neighborly relations” and recognize the other’s state symbols – including license plates! Crucially, it would prevent Serbia from blocking Kosovo's membership in the UN and other international organizations.
Why now? Both countries are vying to join the European Union, and the bloc has made it clear that cannot happen without the normalization of ties. What’s more, maintaining stability in the Balkans has renewed importance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
While this is a big step, critics say that without full mutual recognition, implementation – and adherence – of this EU-backed deal could be a long shot.
Destroyed train carriages are seen at the site of a crash, where two trains collided, near the city of Larissa, Greece, March 1, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Greek train crash, US attaches strings to chip cash, Serbia and Kosovo outline peace, camel copies for sale
43: At least 43 people are dead after a passenger train carrying people from Athens, Greece, to the northern city of Thessaloniki collided head-on with a freight train. A provincial stationmaster has already been arrested as part of the initial investigation. Greek rail unions have long complained about staffing shortfalls and outdated equipment.
10: Cash for chips now comes with strings attached. The US government has ruled that any American companies that receive money from a new multibillion-dollar fund to support the semiconductor industry must agree not to expand in China for 10 years. For more on the Great Global Chips War, see here.
15: A mere 15 years after Kosovo’s controversial declaration of independence from Serbia, the two countries reached a(nother) tentative, EU-brokered framework for peace earlier this week. Much remains to be worked out, but it’s a good sign nonetheless. See here for our recent explainer on why it’s so hard for Kosovo and Serbia to normalize relations.
50,000: Do you have A) $50,000 burning a hole in your pocket and B) a stunningly beautiful camel at your disposal? If so, please consider spending (A) on making a perfect clone of (B), courtesy of a Dubai lab that specializes in camel copies. Get over the hump — do it!Protesters against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's plan to reform the electoral authority, in Mexico City, Mexico, February 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Mexicans protest AMLO changes, North Korea seeks grain, Iran hearts Ipanema, a controversial kiss from Kosovo
500,000 or 90,000?: How many people in Mexico City took part in recent mass protests against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s overhaul of the electoral system? Organizers say 500,000 turned out to oppose the changes, which would weaken independent election oversight. But authorities in Mexico City, which is controlled by AMLO’s party, say it was only 90,000.
1 million: North Korea is estimated to be short at least 1 million tons of grain right now because of mismanagement and pandemic-related interruptions of imports from China. That’s equal to about one-fifth of the Hermit Kingdom’s annual consumption. In the past, North Korea has suffered famines so bad that people were forced to eat grass and tree bark.
2: Brazil’s government allowed two Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend, despite demands from the US to turn them away. The move is a reminder that although Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Joe Biden may see eye to eye on a lot, Lula’s perspective — in line with much of the Global South — often differs from Washington’s on key issues such as China, Iran, and Ukraine.
3: The young Kosovo artist Ermira Murati has gotten thousands of threats over her striking, 3-meter tall painting of Kosovo PM Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic kissing. The two leaders, who famously despise each other, are meeting early this week in Brussels to try to reach a peace deal. Here’s our recent piece on why that’s so hard to do. And, while we’re kissing in the former Eastern bloc, here’s one of the greatest smooches of the 20th century.Serb army veterans protesting near Podujevo in Kosovo ,February 21, 2008.
Kosovo 15 years later: a dangerous limbo
There are very few places on earth where a dispute over license plates can threaten to ignite a war, and the city of Mitrovica, in northern Kosovo, is one of them.
The city is located in Albanian-majority Kosovo, but most of its inhabitants are ethnic Serbs who don't recognize the Kosovo government at all. There are government offices of both Serbia and Kosovo there, sometimes operating in the same buildings. No one knows who’s really in charge, but everyone has strong ideas about who should be.
The limbo of places like Mitrovica is the unfinished business of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia, which happened 15 years ago on Friday. After all these years, why is it still so hard for Kosovo and Serbia to bury the hatchet?
First, some background: Serbs, who are almost all Orthodox Christians, consider Kosovo their historic and spiritual heartland. But for at least 150 years the area has been inhabited primarily by Muslim Albanians. In the 1980s, Serb-Albanian tensions flared as broader Yugoslavia splintered along ethnic lines. In 1989, Serbian President Slobodan Milošević stoked Serb nationalism over Kosovo while crushing the province’s political and cultural autonomy. An armed uprising by Kosovar militants in the late 1990s drew a ferocious Serbian response, prompting NATO to bomb Belgrade in 1999 to stop Milošević’s attempts at ethnic cleansing of the region.
After living for several years under UN and NATO protection, Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, with support from the US and EU. But Serbia, backed by Russia and China, refused to recognize the move.
Where do things stand now?
Kosovo is a de facto independent state but has no representation in international bodies like the UN. The US and much of the EU recognize its independence, but most of Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia do not. Meanwhile, thousands of NATO troops are still on the ground to protect the country’s roughly 2 million people.
EU-backed normalization talks between Kosovo and Serbia have gone on for more than a decade now, but despite both countries’ ambitions to join the EU itself, there’s been little progress, and experts say things aren’t getting any better.
“There’s just zero trust,” says Marko Prelec, a Balkans expert at Crisis Group, “and active hostility on both sides.”
Much of that tension centers on Mitrovica and other areas of northern Kosovo, where the local Serb minority uses Belgrade-run schools and hospitals, and chafes against Kosovo’s attempts to impose its authority.
Last year, Kosovo's clumsy attempt to establish more direct control over the region backfired, sparking disputes over policing and even the use of Kosovo-issued license plates. Up went the barricades, and weeks of violent clashes followed. In a chilling echo of the 1990s, Belgrade briefly threatened to send troops across the border.
Is there a peace plan? A recently leaked US- and EU-backed outline centers on mutual recognition of the border, Kosovo getting a seat at the UN, and Kosovo granting Serb minorities in Kosovo a measure of formal autonomy. Neither side would have to formally “recognize” the other as a state.
Sounds fair enough, why can’t that work? There’s a personality problem, for one thing. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovo’s PM Albin Kurti are both headstrong nationalists who despise each other. Vučić recently called Kurti, who joined the Kosovo militants in the 1990s, “terrorist scum.”
But it’s mainly a problem of who has to do what first. Serbia says Kosovo is already committed to giving autonomy to the Kosovo Serbs under a framework agreement from 10 years ago. The Kosovars, for their part, say “nothing doing” until Serbia stops blocking their right to a seat at the UN.
“Both sides reasonably assume that the other will try to cheat them out of whatever it is they sign,” says Prelec, “so they both insist on getting what they want up front, and that’s problematic.”
The EU, with US backing, is keen to see a resolution to the problem – after all, the last thing Brussels wants is another ugly war on its doorstep. But with so much bad blood and so little trust, 15 years is still too little time to reach a durable peace.“The history plays a role here,” says Prelec, “and that history is actually very recent history.”
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this piece stated that the EU recognizes Kosovo's independence. While the European Union provides political and economic support to Kosovo, and is actively backing the conflict resolution process between Kosovo and Serbia, the EU does not formally have a common position on Kosovo -- five EU member states (Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Spain) do not recognize Kosovo's independence. We regret the error.
Osama bin Laden sits with his successor Ayman al-Zawahri.
What We’re Watching: US kills Al-Qaida leader, Pelosi's Taiwan pit stop, Yemen holds its breath, tensions rise between Kosovo and Serbs
US kills al-Qaida leader
President Joe Biden addressed the nation Monday night to make an announcement 21 years in the making: the US killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri in a drone strike in Kabul over the weekend. Osama bin Laden’s right-hand man and key architect in the 9/11 terror attacks was killed in the first US attack in Afghanistan since the American withdrawal last August. The operation – a major counterterrorism coup for Biden – reportedly saw al-Zawahri killed at the home of a staffer to senior Taliban leader Sirajuddin Haqqani. A CIA ground team, with the help of aerial reconnaissance, has confirmed the death. “My hope is that this decisive action will bring one more measure of closure,” Biden told loved ones of 9/11 victims. He also warned that the US “will always remain vigilant … to ensure the safety and security of Americans at home and around the globe.” With al-Qaida franchises having cropped up globally over the past decade, the death of Zawahri – who was wary of the brand’s localization and its effect on his authority – will present a challenge for control of the militant group.
Pelosi Taiwan fallout?
We won’t know whether US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan until she lands there or leaves Asia, but US and Taiwanese officials said Monday they expect she will spend a night there. In response, China’s foreign ministry has warned that the People’s Liberation Army “won’t sit by idly” if it decides Pelosi’s visit undermines China’s “territorial integrity.” It’s not that the US and Chinese governments don’t understand the sensitivity of the timing. The Biden administration, which has warned publicly against a Pelosi visit, is well aware that China’s upcoming Party Congress and its importance for President Xi Jinping’s future make this an extraordinarily provocative moment for a Taiwan visit from the highest-ranking US official to go there in 25 years. Beijing understands that in the US system of co-equal branches of government, the House Speaker doesn’t need the president’s permission to visit other countries. They also know that Pelosi probably won’t be speaker much longer, given the outlook for US midterm elections, and that this is probably her last chance to keep a promise to visit Taiwan. Each side understands, but neither Pelosi nor Xi sees a reason to back down. Keep watching this situation closely.
Yemen’s turning point
A four-month UN-sponsored truce is set to expire in Yemen on Tuesday. What happens next remains unclear. More than seven years of war between a government supported by Saudi Arabia and its regional allies on one side and Houthi rebels backed by Iran on the other has created a humanitarian crisis. Some 17 million Yemenis struggle to find food every day, and the war has inflicted so much damage on homes, schools, roads, and hospitals that even if peace takes hold it might take decades to rebuild. If peace does not take hold, beginning with an extension of the expiring truce, it will be because the two sides are still evenly matched militarily and have not surrendered their weapons — and because there is little trust between them.
Tensions rise in Kosovo
Ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo were supposed to switch their Serbian-issued license plates for Kosovan-issued ones this week, but Kosovo’s government has just delayed implementation by a month owing to simmering tensions. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but tens of thousands of ethnic Serbs living there refuse to recognize the country, which Serbia still sees as its province. The new rules were meant to take hold on Monday, but ethnic Serbs have been protesting and barricading roads with tankers and trucks near two border crossings with Serbia. Police in Kosovo also say shots were fired toward them but that no one was hurt. Fears of rising Balkan instability – with the bloody conflict of the 1990s still fresh on everyone’s minds – led to the postponement. The US and EU have called for calm, and the NATO-led “Kfor” peacekeeping mission is "prepared to intervene if stability is jeopardized."
What We're Watching: Bibi on trial, Iran nuclear talks resume, Kosovo's election
Bibi on trial as deadlock continues: One political commentator described it as "the ultimate Israeli split screen." As Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu's corruption trial finally kicked off after months of delay because of the coronavirus pandemic, political parties were meeting with Israel's President Reuven Rivlin to "recommend" whether the incumbent PM or the opposition should be given the first shot at trying to form a new coalition government after Israelis recently went to the polls for the fourth time in two years. Back in court, the prosecutor said that the PM made "illegitimate use" of his power to obtain favorable media coverage and other luxury perks, with Bibi responding by calling the trial an "attempted coup." The political temperature could not be hotter right now: though Netanyahu is likely to have the votes to try and form a government in the next few weeks, political stalemate persists, making it increasingly unlikely that he will be able to hobble together a workable coalition. Netanyahu also must appear in court three times a week, a massive distraction as he tries to save his political career. All this comes as Israel tries to revive its post-pandemic economy without a stable government or a national budget. The prospect of a fifth election looms large.
Iran talks finally resume: After months of speculation over how to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which the US unilaterally abandoned under the Trump administration, most signers of the pact — France, Germany, the UK, China, and Russia — will meet in Vienna on Tuesday to chart a path forward. But there's a catch: representatives from the US and Iran will be present but they will not meet face-to-face. Why? Because the Iranians still insist that the US immediately lift all 1,600 economic sanctions — worth $1 trillion in economic damages — first. The US, meanwhile, says that the Iranians — who have enriched uranium well beyond the deal's limits in recent years — must fall back into compliance with the accords themselves. The other signatories will try to bring Washington and Tehran closer, but that won't be easy. Trust on both sides has cratered after six years of bluster and confrontation, with the Americans insisting Tehran cease its support of terrorist proxies across the Middle East. But time is of the essence: Iran is set to hold national elections in June and if hardliners win the presidency and parliamentary seats, Tehran could lose interest in engaging with America at all.
Kosovo parliament elects a president just in time: With just one day until a deadline that would have triggered snap parliamentary elections, the tiny Balkan nation of Kosovo's legislators on Sunday elected 38-year old lawyer and activist Vjosa Osmani as president, representing the ruling leftwing nationalist Vetëvendosje movement. The post had been formally vacant since last November when her predecessor stepped down over war crimes accusations. Two prior attempts to elect a president in recent days had failed because boycotts by opposition parties and ethnic-Serb parties prevented the body from reaching quorum. Osmani and Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who founded Vetevendosje himself as an anti-establishment party more than a decade ago, have styled themselves as a younger and more liberal generation of Kosovar leaders. One of the biggest challenges, in addition to a massively struggling economy, is to chart further progress in peace talks with Serbia, which — with backing from China and Russia — still refuses to recognize the independence of its former province. (Kosovo, with support from NATO, declared independence in 2008 after more than a decade of struggle against the threat of ethnic cleansing at the hands of Serb nationalists.) The Trump administration brokered a partial normalization of economic ties last year but deep misgivings remain on both sides.