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The world believes the US can do better but its ability to lead diminishes

Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:

Sum up the world's response to the US Capitol riots.

I'd say two things. The leaders I've spoken to around the world in the last few days, the first is disappointment, shock that something like this could happen in the United States. I mean, on the one hand, really depressing. On the other, a lot of people that really do expect and believe that the United States can do better. And I think that's still the case. I think there is still a lot of belief that the United States is better than what is being reflected in the international news right now, from the activities that are happening in Washington and perhaps across the country over the coming days. The second is people want to know what's going to happen as a consequence. And when I say what's going to happen, I mean, first and foremost, what are the consequences of the behavior that's been taken of President Trump, of all of these members of House and Senate that have been putting forth this disinformation and calling for this insurrection? And on that front, I don't have anything very good to say. I mean, there is no question in my mind that tomorrow Trump will be impeached for a second time. It will be largely a party line vote. People are getting excited because maybe 10 or 20 Republicans will vote their conscience and vote in favor of impeachment. The vast majority of sitting Republicans will vote against, which is an extraordinary thing and sends a very strong message to other countries around the world that impeachment is no longer a part of rule of law in the United States, which of course really diminishes the balance of powers in the US and allows the executive, if the executive controls the legislature, to get away with basically whatever they want.

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This time, Trump's impeachment will have Republican support

Jon Lieber, who leads Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares his perspective as Congress considers a second impeachment:

Big story this week is the president of the United States is about to be the only president ever to be impeached twice by the House of Representatives. Articles of impeachment should pass the House on Wednesday morning. The difference between this impeachment and the last impeachment is that this time there will be Republican support for the removal from office. A Senate trial can't begin until probably after the president has left office however. So this really isn't about kicking him out. It's about holding him accountable for the riot that happened at the Capitol last week, and potentially disqualifying him from ever running for future federal office. All eyes will be on the Senate and while it doesn't look likely that he will be convicted there, should some of the more prominent leaders in the Senate come out in favor of his impeachment, I think you may find the 17 votes you need in order to convict Trump.

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Quick Take: President Trump should be removed from office

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here on the beginning of this extraordinary week, with the United States dominating international news, and the way we think about the future of the global order. You can say we dodged a bullet last week though. We are certainly not through the political crisis in the United States. Certainly, I also think about how it could have been a lot worse. How close we were to the vice president, his family, members of Congress, getting injured or killed. Frankly in terms of the election, if the house had turned to the GOP, and it was close to doing so, how the election response to a Biden win could have been contested much more easily, and you then have indeed a constitutional crisis. Or if the vote was much closer than it was, as opposed to the seven million and significant electoral count difference, about how the president could have been more successful, in his consistent efforts to overturn the outcome.

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Trump impeachment 2.0

After last week's storming of the US Capitol building, we asked whether Congress would act to hold President Trump responsible for inciting the insurrection to overturn the result of the 2020 election. We now know the answer: House Democrats on Monday unveiled an article of impeachment against Trump.

But though the House will vote in the coming days to begin the process, Trump — the first US president to be impeached twice — will no longer be in office by the time a trial begins in the Senate. So, why do it? Here are a few arguments for and against.

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ANARCHY! How the world covered the insurrection in DC

Earlier this week, much of the world went to sleep — or woke up — to news of an armed insurrection in the US capital. Around the globe, people saw surreal images of rioters, egged on by the president himself, ransacking the seat of government in a country that has long styled itself as both an example and an advocate of democracy. What did the newspapers around the world have to say about it? Here are a few front pages that we particularly liked.

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Europe reacts to attack on US Capitol with disbelief, horror & sorrow

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, with the view from Europe:

What is the European reaction to the pictures coming out of Washington, yesterday?

Disbelief. Horror. Shock. But also sorrow. The United States is a great ally of Europe. And to see its democracy literally looted by mobs of hooligans inspired by the President of the United States is something that I don't think anyone had thought would ever happen. The President of the United States has gone, in the eyes of the Europeans, from being a leader of a great democracy to being a cult leader of a mob of hooligans.

How do the US Capitol events impact the GOP, DC security & Biden policy?

Jon Lieber, who leads Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, offers insights on yesterday's turmoil at the US Capitol:


What we saw yesterday in the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. was completely without precedent in United States political history. And just on a personal note, it was really upsetting to see people wandering around the halls of Congress and disrespecting the building. And fundamentally, this was a failure of policing at some level, and the Capitol Police will be expected to be held accountable for that in the coming weeks. And what you saw yesterday was not in any way equivalent to but is on the same spectrum as a lot of the same political protests that we've seen over the last couple of years, starting with the invasion of the Capitol complex during the Kavanaugh confirmations, and extending to the riots and protests that we saw over the summer, including the takeover of several blocks of downtown Seattle. This is obviously, what happened yesterday, far beyond the pale of any of those things. And it is no way their equivalent, but what all of this reflects is a failure of the democratic process to resolve differences in the United States. And that's a function of the deep polarization that you've seen, both because of geographic sorting, and atomization of the media that's allowing people to live in their own bubbles and give political figures strong incentives to disagree, as opposed to coming to agreements.

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American carnage

Our newsletter is called Signal. We chose that name because we wanted to do our best to separate "signal" from "noise" for our readers — to cut through ideology and emotion to try to offer insight into what's happening, why it's happening, and what might happen in the future. With that in mind, here's what has happened in the United States over the past 24 hours and how we got here.

President Donald Trump has built a large following by telling people that American politics is a game that has been rigged against his supporters. In November, he was defeated by Joe Biden in a free and fair election. Before, during, and after that election, Trump has tried to persuade his followers that the election was stolen from them. That charge is false. It has been the subject of dozens of lawsuits and court cases, and no court has found that it has merit.

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