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Trump looms large over G20 Summit

​Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres ahead of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres ahead of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Ricardo Stuckert/Brazilian Presidency/Handout via Reuters
As G20 leaders meet in Rio de Janeiro on Monday, it’s not just the city’s famed statue of Christ the Redeemer casting a shadow: it’s US President-elect Donald Trump. Once Trump takes office on Jan. 20, 2025, world leaders expect radical change in Washington’s approach to the war in Ukraine, climate change, and global trade – and they’re trying to prepare for the new world order.

What’s on the menu? Outgoing US President Joe Biden, together with UK PM Keir Starmer, are pushing for additional aid to Ukraine amid Russia’s latest missile barrage and North Korea’s troop deployment in Russia. As for Russian President Vladimir Putin, he made a point of skipping the gathering, sending Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov instead.

On climate change, with COP29 climate talks deadlocked in Azerbaijan, UN Chief Antonio Guterres called on the G20, responsible for 80% of global emissions, to step up. But the fly in the ointment may be Trump ally and climate skeptic, Argentinian President Javier Milei. French President Emmanuel Macron met with Milei ahead of the summit in an effort to get Argentina to uphold the Paris Agreement, which the US is expected to exit again under Trump.

A spicy start. Brazil’s first lady, “Janja” Lula da Silva, sparked headlines at a G20 social event Saturday when she quipped, “I’m not afraid of you, f**k you, Elon Musk,” while giving a talk on social media regulation. Brazil suspended Musk’s X platform earlier this year for ignoring court orders to block accounts accused of spreading fake news and hate messages. Musk responded online by predicting that her husband, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, would lose the upcoming Brazilian election.

For more on what’s expected from the G20 summit, check out our Q&A with Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomson here.

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