Is regime change in Iran even possible?
March 17, 2026
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Ian Bremmer takes a look at the week's top stories in geopolitics.
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The war in Iran is entering a more dangerous phase.
Inside the Trump administration in Washington, a high-profile resignation over the conflict. Inside Iran, senior leadership targeted and killed. But the biggest risk isn’t the strikes, it’s what comes next.
Ian Bremmer explains why regime change remains unlikely, even as the United States and Israel intensify military pressure.
As Ian puts it:
“Unless the regime is completely and utterly destroyed … the Iranians will continue to disrupt.”
Iran’s conventional military is being degraded. But its asymmetric capabilities, like drones, cyberattacks, and disruption of global shipping, are far harder to eliminate. That means the conflict could drag on well beyond any formal “end” to the war.
And the consequences may be broader than anticipated: persistent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, cyberattacks on Western infrastructure, long-term instability across the region.
The fundamental challenge: removing a regime from the air is far easier said than done.
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