Will Democrats Change?

Will Democrats Change?

Among the 23 men and women now seeking the Democratic Party's nomination to take on Donald Trump in next year's election, the frontrunner, at least for now, has spent half a century in politics. Former Vice President Joe Biden, first elected to the US Senate in 1972, is the very epitome of the American political establishment.

Yet, the dominant political trend in many democracies today is public rejection of traditional candidates and parties of the center-right and center-left in favor of new movements, voices, and messages. Consider the evidence from some recent elections:


  • As we warned last month, Brexit has undermined both of the UK's major parties. Local elections earlier this month saw disappointing losses for Labor and a tidal wave of anger at Conservatives. This weekend's elections for the European Parliament are expected to boost Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party
  • In France in 2017, voters chose Emmanuel Macron, who had never run for office and was leading a party he had created from nothing one year before the vote. The center-right Les Republicains finished third behind the far-right Front National, and the center-left Socialists fell to fifth place behind France's Communists.
  • In Germany's most recent election, the center-right CDU collected its lowest vote share since 1949, while the center-left SPD suffered its worst result since the 1930s. The far-right AfD is now the country's lead opposition party, and the Greens poll higher than the SPD.
  • In Italy, the last election (2018) produced a governing coalition that combines a protest movement that didn't exist a decade ago with a far-right, former separatist party.
  • In Mexico, voters in 2018 pushed aside traditional parties to elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador as their president. His Morena party, created less than five years ago, now commands a solid legislative majority.
  • In Brazil, voters chose a far-right former army officer, Jair Bolsonaro, representing a party that before the election held just one of more than 500 seats in Congress.
  • In Ukraine, voters pushed past the incumbent president and former prime minister to instead elect a comedian who played the country's president on a TV show.

So what about the United States, where two-party dominance of politics remains deeply entrenched?

In a sense, Donald Trump, the first person ever elected president without having served in either government or the military, has created a new party within the Republican Party. He has upended the party's traditionally pro-immigration and free-trade views, and challenged the assumption that it's in the US national interest for Washington to play a global leadership role, reversing the position of every Republican president—and presidential candidate—since World War II.

Senior leaders of his party have pushed back in some areas, but Trump remains the unrivalled standard-bearer of the much-changed "Grand Ole Party" (GOP).

So what about the Democrats? As their would-be champions take the debate stage beginning next month, the great question facing the party and its supporters is whether the party must change to meet the demands of a changing electorate or whether job number one is to send Donald Trump packing.

The bottom line: If it's all about beating Trump, Biden may well be his party's strongest choice. But if Democrats believe their party must accept the global trend toward promises of transformational change, other candidates will emerge and the race will become much more difficult to predict.

Microsoft announced earlier this year the launch of a new United Nations representation office to deepen their support for the UN's mission and work. Many of the big challenges facing society can only be addressed effectively through multi-stakeholder action. Whether it's public health, environmental sustainability, cybersecurity, terrorist content online or the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, Microsoft has found that progress requires two elements - international cooperation among governments and inclusive initiatives that bring in civil society and private sector organizations to collaborate on solutions. Microsoft provided an update on their mission, activities for the 75th UN General Assembly, and the team. To read the announcement from Microsoft's Vice President of UN Affairs, John Frank, visit Microsoft On The Issues.

News broke across the United States on Friday evening that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had died, ending her long and distinguished career as a jurist. Tributes poured in quickly from men and women on both sides of the political spectrum. But just as quickly, her death has sharply raised the stakes for the upcoming US elections for president and the Senate, as well as the longer-term ideological balance of the nation's top court.

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Jon Lieber, Managing Director of the United States for the Eurasia Group, shares his insights on the biggest development in US politics this week:

So, the scriptwriters for 2020 have thrown as a real curveball, introducing the most explosive element in US politics, just six weeks before the election. The tragic death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who will be remembered as a trailblazing jurist, but also a reliably liberal vote on a court that was divided along ideological lines with a five-four conservative majority. This has the potential to upend the presidential election. And likely will motivate turnout on both sides. But also, importantly for president, Trump could remind some Romney voting ex-Republicans who were leaning towards Biden why they were Republicans in the first place. Which means that it has the potential to push some persuadable voters back towards the president.

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(Some) Thais fed up with royals: In their largest show of force to date, around 18,000 young Thai activists took to the streets of Bangkok on Saturday to rally against the government and demand sweeping changes to the country's powerful monarchy. The protesters installed a gold plaque declaring that Thailand belongs to the Thai people, not the king — a brazen act of defiance in a country where many view the sovereign as a god and offenses against the royal family are punishable by up to 15 years in prison. Activists also got the royal guards to accept a letter addressed to King Vajiralongkorn with their proposed reforms. We're watching to see if the Thai government — made up mostly of the same generals who took over in a 2014 coup and then stage-managed last year's election to stay in power — continues to exercise restraint against the activists. So far, some protest leaders have been detained but they are growing bolder in their defiance of the military and the royal family, the two institutions that have dominated Thai politics for decades. Prime Minister and former army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha is in a tough spot: many young and liberal Thais will hate him if he cracks down hard on the peaceful protesters, but not doing so would make him look weak in the eyes of his power base of older, more conservative Thais who still venerate the monarchy and are fine with the military calling the shots in politics.

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32: Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra survived an impeachment vote on Friday after only 32 out of 130 lawmakers supported his removal for allegedly trying to block an investigation into misuse of public funds. Vizcarra was in peril just a week ago, but the case for impeachment lost steam after the president was backed by the military and influential opposition leaders who insist the country needs stability to fight COVID-19.

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