Egypt’s Undemocratic Election - And Why the West doesn’t care

Egyptians are voting this month in parliamentary elections that aren’t expected to change who’s in charge, but could allow President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to rule beyond 2030. 596 seats are up for grabs in Egypt’s House of Representatives, but mostly parties friendly to his regime made the ballot in an election rife with irregularities.

So why are no Western leaders calling out this undemocratic process? Because Egypt has become too strategically indispensable for anyone to challenge el-Sisi’s authoritarian grip.

The structure is rigged from the start. Egypt’s House of Representatives, the country’sprimary legislative body, consists of 596 members serving five-year terms. Twenty-eight seats are appointed directly by the President. Of the remainder, 284 are filled by individual candidates, and 284 seats are awarded through a closed-list, winner-takes-all system across four mega-districts, where any party that wins more than 50 percent of the vote takes every seat in the district. In a country where the president won the last election with 97% of the vote, this winner-take-all system for the mega-districts has been criticized for favouring the ruling party and those loyal to the regime.

Irregularities abound. The first round of voting in November was marred by allegations of vote-buying and illegal campaigning that saw a total of 45 district electionsannulled and rerun. There were also claims the governmentmanipulated drug test results to exclude candidates. Some opposition figures were barred based on new military service requirements. El-Sisi even ordered an investigation into the vote afterexternal reports warned against ignoring public anger about the process.

Only candidates from the National Unified List participated in the mega-district elections, however, ensuring victory for pro-government parties in those seat-heavy areas. Worse yet, candidates allegedly had to pay between 30 million and 70 million Egyptian pounds ($USD 629,504 - 1.4m) to be included in the unified list, which comprised 12 pro-government parties.

Why does this election matter? Because el-Sisi reportedly wants to ask the House of Representatives to pass a constitutional amendment to enable him to rule past his current term limit of 2030. That amendment would then be put to the people in a referendum, as was the case in 2019, when Egyptiansvoted to extend el-Sisi’s term until 2030 with nearly 90% in favor.

So why does the world stay silent? Western and Gulf governments fear a collapse of the Egyptian state more than they fear its authoritarian drift. The nation of 110 million people struggles withhigh poverty levels and depends on IMF support and foreign aid from the Gulf. A destabilised Egypt could threaten critical Suez shipping lanes and endanger the management of European migration. It could also inspire other movements in the region, much as the “Arab Spring” did in 2011, which saw the political arm of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood win Egyptian elections in 2012 before being ousted in a coup by the military the following year.

US President Donald Trump also considers Egypt a key player in talks to stabilise Gaza, mediate between Israel and Hamas, and manage the flow of aid at the Rafah crossing into Gaza. Washington is reportedly also trying tobroker a summit between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and el-Sisi to help normalize relations between the two countries. In all these contexts, it appears, continuity trumps concerns over democracy and human rights.