Russia-Ukraine war escalation

In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer analyzes how the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on with no sign of winding down any time soon.

Moscow has intensified strikes, hitting Ukraine’s most important government buildings. Ukraine, meanwhile, is expanding missile capabilities alongside growth in drone production.

Still, the front lines remain largely static.“Over time, the ability of the Ukrainians to continue to muster the fighting force…is deteriorating,” Ian warns. He add that it leaves Putin convinced “the longer they engage in this war, the less capable the Ukrainians will be… and that means that Russia's going to be in a better position to demand outcomes in terms that they want.”

The risk extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. With Trump’s Russia policy faltering and China offering Putin diplomatic support, Ian cautions the conflict is “increasingly not just a proxy war, but a direct hybrid war,” raising the danger of escalation in unpredictable ways.