Trump’s ceasefire deal with Iran

In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer breaks down the newly announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran and whether it can hold.

Ian explains that while Iran continues to exert influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the ceasefire means less tail risk around big infrastructure in the Gulf getting destroyed, tankers getting hit, and the like. Still, he warns that "we are clearly very far from an agreement between the United States and Iran to jointly control the strait,” highlighting the limits of the deal.

He also highlights ongoing regional tensions, including Israeli strikes in Lebanon. “There are multiple actors involved in this fight,” Ian says, pointing to decentralized forces like Hezbollah and the Houthis that could complicate the ceasefire.

Despite these challenges, he concludes: “It's clearly a meaningful improvement from where we were a day ago,” emphasizing that the ceasefire marks a critical step toward easing regional and global economic risks.