When Americans think of Viktor Orbán, they picture a Trump ally. But according to political analyst Ivan Krastev, that misses the bigger picture. "The major bet of the Hungarian government is China," Krastev tells Ian Bremmer, and the numbers bear it out: Chinese investment in Hungary now exceeds Chinese investment in Germany and France combined. Beijing's interest isn't in Hungary's size or seaport access: it's in Orbán's willingness to veto any EU anti-China economic policy.

Russia plays a different role, but one equally central to Orbán's political identity. The Hungarian leader built his career demanding Soviet troops leave his country in 1989, yet he has since made dependence on Russian oil and gas a cornerstone of what he frames as Hungarian sovereignty. For Orbán, Brussels, not Moscow, is the existential threat.

The result is a political model built on triangulation: lean on China, accommodate Russia, and position himself as the only truly sovereign leader in the EU. Krastev notes that this carefully constructed story may now be unraveling ahead of Hungary's April 12th elections.