Look, 2018 is not going to be pretty, no matter what sh 😱thole you find yourself in. For our first episode of the year, former UK chancellor George Osborne lays out his less-than-jolly prediction for Brexit negotiations in 2018 and reflects on what more he could have done while in office to prevent the whole mess.
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"The need to mobilize and deploy capital to address climate change has never been more urgent," says Bank of America Vice Chairman Anne Finucane. See how the pandemic has put a new lens on issues such as education, inequality and climate change — and what business, government and nonprofits must do to help.
More than 30.5 million COVID shots have now been administered globally, raising hopes that the light at the end of the tunnel is very much within reach.
The US has vaccinated almost 3 percent of its total population, while the UK is nearing a solid 5 percent inoculation rate. In Israel, which has been hailed as a vaccine success story, almost 23 percent of people have already received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine.
Yet, while advanced economies are making plans for a post-COVID recovery and future, many refugees, as well as displaced, undocumented, and stateless people around the world remain ineligible for inoculations and vulnerable to the coronavirus.
We take a look at three case studies where powerless populations are being left in the lurch.
<p><strong>Colombia turns its back on Venezuelan migrants.</strong> The dire economic and political crises under the Maduro regime in Venezuela have plunged 65 percent of households into<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-poverty/venezuela-poverty-rate-surges-amid-economic-collapse-inflation-study-idUSL1N2EE1MG" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> poverty</a> and caused widespread food and medicine shortages. As a result, 1.7 million desperate Venezuelans have spilled over into neighboring Colombia, putting a massive strain on Colombia's already weak public infrastructure. </p>
<p>Now Colombian President<a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/unga/videos/colombia-president-ivan-duque-on-early-pandemic-response-multilateralism-didnt-work-as-it-should" target="_blank"> Ivan Duque</a> says that those who don't have formal migration status will not have access to Colombia's vaccine stash, meaning that around 935,000 Venezuelan refugees will be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/dec/22/colombia-coronavirus-vaccine-migrants-venezuela-ivan-duque" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ineligible </a>for the shot. Duque claims the policy is aimed at prioritizing the wellbeing of Colombians first amid a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/colombia?country=~COL" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">surging</a> outbreak, and avoiding a rush on the border as more Venezuelans clamor to get the vaccine. But <a href="https://twitter.com/agaviriau/status/1341042581224996864" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">public health experts say </a>that the move isn't just a humanitarian failure, it's also an epidemiological one that will hamper Colombia's efforts to root out the disease, because a successful vaccine drive should be as expansive as possible. </p>
<p><strong>Israel shirks responsibility to Palestinians.</strong> Israel has been broadly praised for its ambitious vaccine drive, now <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=latest®ion=World" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">leading the world</a> in COVID vaccinations per capita by a long shot. At this rate, the government aims to vaccinate the entire population of 9 million by the end of March, a remarkable feat as vaccine rollouts remain sluggish across North America and Europe.</p>
<p>But Israel's vaccine drive <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/world/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-vaccine-palestinians.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">excludes</a> millions of Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank, as well as the Gaza Strip (though the Strip is run by the Islamist Hamas militant group and not the internationally-recognized Palestinian Authority).</p>
<p>Israeli officials say that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has not reached out for assistance with vaccine procurement, an odd justification for inaction during a once-in-a-generation global crisis. They also argue that under the terms of the Oslo Accords, the de-facto law of the land, the Palestinian Authority oversees healthcare for its people. (Arab citizens of Israel are in fact being vaccinated.) </p>
<p>But application of international law here is <a href="https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer/status/1346439174275141632" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">murky</a>: while the Oslo Accords gave the Palestinian Authority responsibility in the West Bank and Gaza, the Fourth Geneva Convention states that an occupying power (Israel) has a clear responsibility to assist those living under its occupation (the Palestinians). Under Israel's current vaccine scheme, millions of Palestinians in the West Bank, many of whom work in Israeli cities, are being left behind. </p>
<p><strong>Undocumented migrants abandoned in the US.</strong> Republican Governor Pete Ricketts recently sparked a firestorm when he said undocumented immigrants would be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/06/nebraska-covid-vaccine-immigrants-meatpacking/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ineligible</a> for COVID vaccines in Nebraska. Ricketts doubled down even when critics pointed out that 11 percent of Nebraska's meat processing <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/content/essential-role-immigrants-us-food-supply-chain" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">workers</a>, who have been<a href="https://omaha.com/state-and-regional/meatpacking-workers-account-for-one-in-six-coronavirus-cases-nebraskas-total-cases-top-7-000/article_92b9c056-a8fc-5f8b-84eb-15404939b6ba.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> pummeled</a> by COVID-19, are undocumented.</p>
<p>Similar conversations have played out in New York state, home to about 750,000 <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauthorized-immigrants-by-state/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">undocumented migrants</a> (likely an undercount) who are disproportionately represented in essential jobs. The federal government recently <a href="https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/10/feds-will-no-longer-seek-personal-data-for-covid-vaccine" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reneged</a> on a requirement mandating that states report the personal details of all vaccine recipients, information that could then be passed on to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. However, after the government flip-flop, it's unclear whether undocumented New Yorkers will now feel safe to show up for the jab, many of whom <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/12/19/covid-19-vaccine-undocumented-immigrants-fear-getting-dose/3941484001/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">fear </a>arrest and deportation. </p>
<p><strong>Public health failure. </strong>Leaving behind the most vulnerable populations both within their own countries' borders and in adopted ones, is not only morally questionable, it is bad public health policy as the world strives to get to <em>COVID zero.</em></p><p><br/><br/></p>
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As the world's richest nations struggle will vaccine rollout, a more daunting question looms: When will the world's poorest nations get the COVID-19 vaccine? Of course, some vaccines have already reached the developing world, but World Bank President David Malpass says it may not be until the second half of 2021, or even well into 2022, that distribution becomes widespread. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of an upcoming episode of GZERO World, airing on public television nationwide beginning this Friday, January 15th. Check local listings.
When will we return to a pre-pandemic normal by achieving COVID-19 herd immunity? Well, that depends where you live. While a host of wealthy nations that stockpiled vaccines and have already started rolling them out are planning for a post-COVID recovery in the near-term, the bulk of middle-income states will have to wait many months until the vaccine is rolled out to large swaths of the population. Most developing nations, meanwhile, as well as countries that will only get drugs through the global COVAX facility, may still be living with the coronavirus for three more years, according to predictions by The Economist Intelligence Unit. We compare when the pandemic is likely to end in different groups of countries, based on their access to vaccines and rollout plans.
The US House of Representatives voted on Wednesday to impeach President Trump a second time. The outcome was a bit different this time because 10 House Republicans (of 211 total) voted in favor.
But there's a far more consequential difference between this impeachment and the one early last year. This time, there's a genuine possibility that when the article is sent to the Senate, two thirds of senators will vote to convict Trump of high crimes and misdemeanors. That would be a first in American history.
The outcome hinges on one man: Republican Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
<p>McConnell leads the Republican Senate caucus. If he tells fellow Republicans that he intends to vote for conviction, many will probably join him. If he opposes conviction, Trump will be acquitted. </p><p>On Tuesday, multiple major media outlets — including Republican-friendly <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcconnell-believes-trump-committed-impeachable-offenses-supports-democrats-impeachment-efforts-report" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Fox News</a> — dropped bombshell news that sources close to McConnell say he supports Trump's impeachment. It's not yet clear how he will vote, but these sources are highly unlikely to have spoken to the media without McConnell's blessing.</p><p>McConnell announced on Wednesday that he would not agree to call the Senate back into session until January 19, which means there will be no Senate verdict until Joe Biden has been inaugurated and Trump is out of office. But he also reportedly told GOP colleagues on Wednesday that he <a href="https://twitter.com/MKhan47/status/1349448642403438595" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">hasn't decided</a> whether he will vote to convict. </p><p><strong>Why would McConnell vote to convict Trump after his presidency is over?</strong> It's possible that a man who has devoted his working life to the Senate is so deeply offended by last week's <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/american-carnage" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_self">violence and vandalism</a> inside the halls of Congress that he will vote to remove Trump to send a message about the power and integrity of the legislative branch of the US government.</p><p><strong>But there is also political calculus at work.</strong>There is now a battle underway for the <a href="https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/whose-party-it" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">future of the Republican Party</a>. McConnell may not care very much that a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion-poll-impeachment-donald-trump/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">majority of Americans back impeachment</a> following last week's rioting in the Capitol, but he can also see a strong division of opinion among Republican voters over Trump's leadership.</p><p>According to <a href="https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/whose-party-it" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">data from the Wall Street Journal</a>, 46.6 percent of GOP voters say they identify more as supporters of Trump than as Republicans. About 40 percent say the opposite.</p><p>Will continuing support for Donald Trump determine the future of the Republican Party? The same party that Senator McConnell has served for decades? The Senate could also vote to bar Trump from every again running for federal office. </p><p><strong>Last week's violence has given McConnell an opportunity to discredit Trump and try to pull the party away from him. </strong>Maybe McConnell fears that failure to convict would allow the threat Trump poses — to both the Republican Party and the continuation of democracy free of mob violence — to grow. Perhaps this is the GOP's last best chance to pass judgment on Donald Trump, even after he has left office.</p><p>We don't yet know how Senator McConnell will vote, but it's already clear that Mitch McConnell will soon have an historic decision to make.</p>
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